Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 181540
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/18/14 1540Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-W: 1530ZDS
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LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MOD-HVY RAINS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LONG LOOP OF WV/IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BALL OF CONVECTION THAT PROGRESSIVELY MOVED ACROSS W TX/SE NM LAST
NIGHT AND HAD ARRIVED AT THE SE NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE BORDER BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. NEW CNVTN HAS BEEN DVLPG JUST AHEAD OF THIS DECAYING AREA OF
TSTORMS..PARTIALLY DUE TO PRESENCE OF AN EMBEDDED MCV. A WEAK S/WV
IMPULSE SEEMS TO BE PRESENT IN WV IMAGERY SLIDING ESE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE/SW OK WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHT EWD EXPANSION OF THE AREA
OF MOD RAINS OVER NW TX AND AIDED IN NEW CONVECTIVE DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE
MCV. WEAK LOW LVL SRLY/SWRLY FLOW IS DRAWING WARM MOIST AIR NWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE COLLIDING WITH COLD POOL FROM E-W ORIENTED TSTORMS. PW
ANALYSIS FROM 12Z RAOBS HAD SHOWN A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN MAF AND AMA
RANGING FROM 1.2-1.8" N-S.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1540-1945Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BUBBLING LOOK OF CNVTN S/SE OF LBB IN VIS
IMAGERY INDICATES NO ONE UPDRAFT BEING SUPPORTED BY RATHER QUICK BURSTS
OF INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED CNVTN. BNDRY PUSHING SW FROM FAR SW OK/E TX
PANHANDLE IS HELPING TO DEPRESS THE ERN END OF PRECIPITATION A BIT SWD
OVER NW TX AND REINFORCING OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM KS/OK MCS IS ALSO PRESSING
SW THIS MORNING. THESE BNDRYS ARE CAUSING INCRSD LOW LVL CNVG ACROSS NW
TX/SE TX PANHANDLE WHICH HAPPENS TO BE WHERE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG
ARE LOCATED. EXPECT S/WV WILL HELP TO SPREAD HEAVIER PRECIP SE ACTING ON
STRONGER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. MERGERS BETWEEN THE EWD MOVING CLUSTER OF
CNVTN AND NEW DVLPG CELLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS LOCALLY
INCRSG RAINRATES. RECENT SSMIS PASSES HAD SHOWN AREAL AVG RAINRATES OF
0.75-1.3"/HR WHICH EQUATES TO LOCALIZED 2+"/HR RATES FROM THE EMBEDDED
CORES. MOD RAINS STILL ARE LIKELY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE INTO E NM
AS LOW LVL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS SRLY AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SERLY LATER TDY BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3452 10023 3290 9898 3161 10324 3437 10353
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