Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 310010
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1810 MDT Thursday, October 30, 2014

This forecast is for Friday, October 31, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 60.8 F/16.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 298 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9617 ft MSL (4330 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 62.0 F/17.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1400 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8030 ft MSL (2743 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 11/01..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 11921 ft MSL (6634 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 18308 ft MSL (13021 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Saturday 11/01........ Poor

Remarks... None

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:27:11 / 17:58:42 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 31 min 31 sec (631 min 31 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:43:11 MDT... 36.00 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/31/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 13698 ft MSL (8411 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18768 ft MSL (13481 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13835 ft MSL (8547 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.9
K index......................... -1.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -66.4 -87.5   285   37   19   2.3   1.3      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -63.0 -81.4   295   44   22   2.2   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -59.5 -75.1   310   38   19   3.5   1.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -55.5 -67.9   310   35   18   6.9   3.8      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -51.4 -60.5   305   32   17   6.9   3.8      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -47.1 -52.8   300   29   15   7.3   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -42.8 -45.0   295   26   13   7.3   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -38.2 -36.8   295   25   13   8.0   4.4   38.2 100.7    16.2      M    M
 29000  -35.8 -32.4   295   25   13   8.0   4.4   37.4  99.4    15.8      M    M
 28000  -32.8 -27.0   295   25   13   8.0   4.4   36.8  98.2    15.5      M    M
 27000  -30.4 -22.7   300   25   13   8.0   4.4   36.0  96.8    15.1      M    M
 26000  -28.0 -18.4   305   25   13   8.0   4.4   35.3  95.5    14.8      M    M
 25000  -25.6 -14.1   310   26   13   8.0   4.4   34.7  94.5    14.5      M    M
 24000  -23.3  -9.9   315   27   14   7.7   4.2   34.0  93.2    14.0      M    M
 23000  -21.0  -5.8   310   29   15   7.7   4.2   33.2  91.7    13.5      M    M
 22000  -18.7  -1.7   310   30   16   7.7   4.2   32.5  90.5    13.1      M    M
 21000  -16.4   2.5   310   31   16   7.7   4.2   31.8  89.2    12.6      M    M
 20000  -14.1   6.6   305   31   16   7.7   4.2   31.0  87.8    12.1      M    M
 19500  -12.9   8.8   305   31   16   7.7   4.2   30.7  87.2    11.9      M    M
 19000  -11.8  10.8   305   31   16   7.8   4.3   30.4  86.7    11.7      M    M
 18500  -10.6  12.9   305   30   16   7.8   4.3   30.0  86.0    11.5      M    M
 18000   -9.5  14.9   305   29   15   7.8   4.3   29.7  85.5    11.3      M    M
 17500   -8.3  17.1   300   29   15   8.0   4.4   29.4  84.9    11.0      M    M
 17000   -7.1  19.2   300   28   14   8.0   4.4   29.1  84.3    10.8      M    M
 16500   -5.9  21.4   300   27   14   7.8   4.3   28.8  83.8    10.6      M    M
 16000   -4.8  23.4   300   27   14   7.7   4.2   28.4  83.2    10.3      M    M
 15500   -3.6  25.5   300   26   13   7.5   4.1   28.1  82.6    10.1      M    M
 15000   -2.6  27.3   295   25   13   6.7   3.7   27.6  81.7     9.7      M    M
 14500   -1.1  30.0   295   22   12   6.1   3.4   26.9  80.4     9.0      M    M
 14000   -0.3  31.5   295   20   10   5.7   3.1   26.2  79.1     8.5      M    M
 13500    0.5  32.9   290   18    9   5.1   2.8   25.5  78.0     7.9      M    M
 13000    1.1  34.0   290   16    8   4.0   2.2   24.6  76.3     7.0      M    M
 12500    1.7  35.1   280   13    7   3.9   2.1   23.7  74.7     6.2      M    M
 12000    2.2  36.0   275   11    6   3.2   1.8   22.7  72.8     5.2      M    M
 11500    2.6  36.7   260    9    5   3.0   1.7   21.7  71.0     4.3      M    M
 11000    2.9  37.2   245    8    4   1.7   0.9   20.4  68.8     3.1      M    M
 10500    3.1  37.6   230    8    4   1.8   1.0   19.2  66.5     1.9      M    M
 10250    3.2  37.8   220    8    4   1.8   1.0   18.6  65.4     1.3      M    M
 10000    3.4  38.1   220    8    4   2.7   1.5   18.0  64.3     0.7      M    M
  9750    3.6  38.5   210    8    4   3.4   1.9   17.4  63.4     0.2      M    M
  9500    3.8  38.8   205    8    4   3.3   1.8   16.9  62.5    -0.3    290  1.5
  9250    4.1  39.4   205    8    4   3.5   1.9   16.4  61.6    -0.8    274  1.4
  9000    4.4  39.9   205    8    4   3.8   2.1   16.0  60.7    -1.2    259  1.3
  8750    4.7  40.5   210    9    4   4.6   2.5   15.5  60.0    -1.7    242  1.2
  8500    5.0  41.0   215   10    5   3.8   2.1   15.1  59.2    -2.1    225  1.1
  8250    5.2  41.4   210   12    6   2.8   1.5   14.6  58.3    -2.6    211  1.1
  8000    5.5  41.9   210   14    7   3.2   1.8   14.1  57.3    -3.1    197  1.0
  7750    5.7  42.3   205   17    9   2.7   1.5   13.6  56.4    -3.6    182  0.9
  7500    5.8  42.4   200   19   10   1.4   0.8   13.0  55.4    -4.2    170  0.9
  7250    5.9  42.6   195   21   11   0.3   0.2   12.3  54.1    -4.9    161  0.8
  7000    6.0  42.8   195   23   12   2.1   1.2   11.6  52.9    -5.5    152  0.8
  6750    6.1  43.0   190   25   13  -1.1  -0.6   11.0  51.8    -6.1    141  0.7
  6500    5.8  42.4   190   23   12  -5.4  -3.0    9.9  49.9    -7.2    143  0.7
  6250    5.4  41.7   185   21   11  -3.4  -1.9    8.9  47.9    -8.3    146  0.7
  6000    5.1  41.2   180   19   10  -7.0  -3.9    7.8  46.0    -9.4    149  0.8
  5750    4.3  39.7   180   15    8 -10.6  -5.8    6.4  43.4   -10.9    164  0.8
  5500    3.6  38.5   175    9    5  -6.9  -3.8    5.0  40.9   -12.3    178  0.9

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/31/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/31/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -2.6  LI... +5.6                | K index... -5.9  LI... +5.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.3 -87.3  285  33 17   1.9   1.1 | -66.7 -88.1  290  28 15   1.7   1.0
 45000 -63.4 -82.1  290  36 19   2.4   1.3 | -63.9 -83.0  285  33 17   3.1   1.7
 40000 -59.6 -75.3  295  34 17   3.6   2.0 | -58.9 -74.0  290  27 14   4.0   2.2
 38000 -55.4 -67.7  295  31 16   7.4   4.1 | -54.9 -66.8  285  26 13   6.9   3.8
 36000 -50.9 -59.6  295  28 14   7.4   4.1 | -50.8 -59.4  280  24 12   6.9   3.8
 34000 -46.7 -52.1  295  24 12   6.9   3.8 | -46.5 -51.7  275  22 12   7.6   4.2
 32000 -42.6 -44.7  290  21 11   6.9   3.8 | -41.9 -43.4  270  21 11   7.6   4.1
 30000 -38.4 -37.1  285  20 10   7.0   3.9 | -37.9 -36.2  260  20 11   6.2   3.4
 29000 -36.3 -33.3  280  21 11   7.0   3.9 | -36.0 -32.8  260  21 11   6.2   3.4
 28000 -33.7 -28.7  280  23 12   6.9   3.8 | -33.7 -28.7  255  21 11   5.9   3.3
 27000 -31.3 -24.3  280  22 11   8.2   4.5 | -31.4 -24.5  255  21 11   8.1   4.5
 26000 -28.9 -20.0  285  21 11   8.2   4.5 | -29.0 -20.2  250  22 11   8.1   4.5
 25000 -26.4 -15.5  290  20 10   8.2   4.5 | -26.6 -15.9  250  23 12   8.1   4.5
 24000 -23.9 -11.0  290  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -24.1 -11.4  250  24 12   8.3   4.6
 23000 -21.4  -6.5  290  23 12   8.5   4.7 | -21.6  -6.9  255  25 13   8.3   4.6
 22000 -18.8  -1.8  285  25 13   8.6   4.7 | -19.1  -2.4  260  27 14   8.4   4.6
 21000 -16.4   2.5  285  26 13   7.7   4.3 | -16.8   1.8  260  27 14   7.7   4.2
 20000 -14.1   6.6  285  26 13   7.7   4.3 | -14.5   5.9  260  27 14   7.7   4.2
 19500 -12.9   8.8  280  26 13   7.7   4.2 | -13.3   8.1  260  26 14   7.7   4.2
 19000 -11.8  10.8  280  26 14   7.5   4.1 | -12.2  10.0  265  26 14   7.9   4.3
 18500 -10.7  12.7  280  26 13   7.4   4.1 | -11.0  12.2  260  25 13   8.0   4.4
 18000  -9.6  14.7  280  25 13   7.3   4.0 |  -9.8  14.4  260  24 12   8.0   4.4
 17500  -8.4  16.9  285  24 12   8.4   4.6 |  -8.5  16.7  260  23 12   8.3   4.6
 17000  -7.2  19.0  285  24 12   8.4   4.6 |  -7.3  18.9  260  22 12   8.3   4.5
 16500  -5.9  21.4  285  23 12   7.9   4.3 |  -6.1  21.0  260  22 11   7.8   4.3
 16000  -4.8  23.4  285  23 12   7.7   4.2 |  -5.0  23.0  265  21 11   7.5   4.1
 15500  -3.7  25.3  290  23 12   7.7   4.2 |  -3.9  25.0  265  20 10   7.5   4.1
 15000  -2.5  27.5  290  22 12   7.8   4.3 |  -2.8  27.0  265  19 10   7.4   4.0
 14500  -0.8  30.6  290  22 11   7.0   3.9 |  -1.7  28.9  265  18  9   7.5   4.1
 14000   0.1  32.2  290  21 11   6.5   3.6 |  -0.2  31.6  270  17  9   6.8   3.7
 13500   1.0  33.8  290  20 10   5.9   3.2 |   0.8  33.4  270  16  8   6.6   3.6
 13000   1.7  35.1  290  17  9   4.7   2.6 |   1.7  35.1  270  15  8   6.2   3.4
 12500   2.4  36.3  290  15  8   4.6   2.5 |   2.6  36.7  270  14  7   6.1   3.3
 12000   2.9  37.2  285  12  6   3.6   2.0 |   3.4  38.1  270  12  6   5.3   2.9
 11500   3.5  38.3  280   9  5   3.5   1.9 |   4.2  39.6  270  10  5   5.3   2.9
 11000   3.9  39.0  265   7  4   3.1   1.7 |   4.9  40.8  260   9  5   5.0   2.8
 10500   4.4  39.9  240   6  3   3.1   1.7 |   5.6  42.1  250   8  4   4.4   2.4
 10250   4.6  40.3  230   6  3   2.8   1.6 |   5.9  42.6  250   7  4   1.7   0.9
 10000   4.8  40.6  225   6  3   2.8   1.5 |   6.0  42.8  245   7  4   3.6   2.0
  9750   5.0  41.0  215   6  3   3.0   1.6 |   6.4  43.5  235   7  4   6.5   3.6
  9500   5.2  41.4  205   7  3   2.5   1.4 |   6.8  44.2  225   7  4   4.7   2.6
  9250   5.3  41.5  200   7  4   1.9   1.1 |   7.1  44.8  220   7  4   2.4   1.3
  9000   5.5  41.9  205   8  4   1.7   0.9 |   7.2  45.0  220   7  4   1.8   1.0
  8750   5.6  42.1  205   8  4   1.8   1.0 |   7.4  45.3  220   7  4   3.4   1.8
  8500   5.7  42.3  210   9  5   0.7   0.4 |   7.6  45.7  215   7  4   0.3   0.2
  8250   5.7  42.3  210  11  5  -0.4  -0.2 |   7.4  45.3  220   7  4  -3.2  -1.8
  8000   5.7  42.3  215  12  6   0.1   0.1 |   7.2  45.0  220   7  4  -3.2  -1.7
  7750   5.7  42.3  215  14  7   0.3   0.2 |   6.9  44.4  220   7  4  -4.6  -2.5
  7500   5.7  42.3  210  16  8  -1.4  -0.8 |   6.5  43.7  220   7  4  -3.2  -1.7
  7250   5.5  41.9  205  18  9  -3.3  -1.8 |   6.4  43.5  205   7  4  -0.9  -0.5
  7000   5.3  41.5  200  20 10  -1.3  -0.7 |   6.2  43.2  190   7  4  -3.0  -1.7
  6750   5.1  41.2  195  23 12  -4.2  -2.3 |   6.0  42.8  175   8  4   1.7   0.9
  6500   4.6  40.3  195  21 11  -8.5  -4.7 |   6.5  43.7  170   7  4   9.2   5.0
  6250   3.9  39.0  190  18  9  -9.2  -5.0 |   7.2  45.0  170   7  4   9.3   5.1
  6000   3.3  37.9  185  15  8  -5.7  -3.1 |   7.9  46.2  170   6  3  10.2   5.6
  5750   3.2  37.8  180  11  6   3.9   2.1 |   8.8  47.8  170   6  3  14.7   8.0
  5500   3.7  38.7  175   8  4   8.9   4.9 |  10.1  50.2  170   5  3  18.9  10.4

           10/31/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/31/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +0.7  LI... +4.3                | K index... +17.0  LI... +1.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -67.3 -89.1  290  26 13   1.5   0.8 | -67.6 -89.7  280  24 12   1.3   0.7
 45000 -64.6 -84.3  285  33 17   4.3   2.4 | -64.9 -84.8  290  31 16   5.2   2.8
 40000 -57.7 -71.9  290  24 12   4.7   2.6 | -57.1 -70.8  285  28 14   5.3   2.9
 38000 -54.3 -65.7  280  22 11   5.8   3.2 | -54.2 -65.6  275  27 14   4.8   2.6
 36000 -50.9 -59.6  260  22 11   5.7   3.2 | -51.3 -60.3  265  28 14   4.8   2.6
 34000 -46.6 -51.9  260  23 12   8.3   4.6 | -46.8 -52.2  265  26 14   8.2   4.5
 32000 -41.6 -42.9  265  24 12   8.3   4.6 | -41.9 -43.4  265  23 12   8.2   4.5
 30000 -37.1 -34.8  260  23 12   6.6   3.6 | -36.8 -34.2  275  22 11   8.7   4.8
 29000 -35.2 -31.4  255  23 12   6.5   3.6 | -34.2 -29.6  280  23 12   8.7   4.8
 28000 -33.2 -27.8  245  23 12   6.5   3.6 | -31.6 -24.9  290  24 12   8.7   4.8
 27000 -30.8 -23.4  240  25 13   6.4   3.5 | -29.7 -21.5  280  23 12   4.8   2.6
 26000 -28.9 -20.0  235  26 13   6.4   3.5 | -28.2 -18.8  260  23 12   4.7   2.6
 25000 -27.0 -16.6  235  28 14   6.4   3.5 | -26.8 -16.2  245  25 13   4.8   2.6
 24000 -24.8 -12.6  235  29 15   8.2   4.5 | -25.1 -13.2  235  26 14   7.8   4.3
 23000 -22.4  -8.3  240  30 15   8.2   4.5 | -22.7  -8.9  240  24 12   7.7   4.2
 22000 -19.9  -3.8  245  31 16   8.3   4.5 | -20.4  -4.7  245  22 11   7.7   4.2
 21000 -17.5   0.5  245  30 15   8.0   4.4 | -18.1  -0.6  250  21 11   7.7   4.2
 20000 -15.0   5.0  250  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -15.8   3.6  250  21 11   7.8   4.3
 19500 -13.8   7.2  250  26 14   8.0   4.4 | -14.7   5.5  255  21 11   7.8   4.3
 19000 -12.6   9.3  250  25 13   7.9   4.3 | -13.5   7.7  255  21 11   7.8   4.3
 18500 -11.5  11.3  250  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -12.3   9.9  255  21 11   8.1   4.5
 18000 -10.4  13.3  250  24 12   7.6   4.2 | -11.1  12.0  255  21 11   8.2   4.5
 17500  -9.2  15.4  250  23 12   8.1   4.4 |  -9.9  14.2  260  22 11   7.7   4.2
 17000  -8.0  17.6  250  23 12   8.0   4.4 |  -8.8  16.2  260  22 11   7.6   4.2
 16500  -6.8  19.8  250  22 11   7.9   4.3 |  -7.1  19.2  260  22 11   7.1   3.9
 16000  -5.7  21.7  250  21 11   7.8   4.3 |  -6.1  21.0  260  22 11   7.2   4.0
 15500  -4.5  23.9  255  21 11   7.8   4.3 |  -5.1  22.8  260  21 11   7.5   4.1
 15000  -3.4  25.9  255  20 10   7.6   4.1 |  -4.1  24.6  265  19 10   7.8   4.3
 14500  -2.3  27.9  255  19 10   7.6   4.2 |  -3.0  26.6  265  17  9   8.0   4.4
 14000  -0.6  30.9  260  18  9   7.7   4.2 |  -1.8  28.8  265  15  8   8.2   4.5
 13500   0.5  32.9  260  17  9   7.5   4.1 |  -0.6  30.9  265  13  6   8.3   4.5
 13000   1.5  34.7  260  16  8   6.8   3.7 |   0.7  33.3  265  11  6   8.5   4.6
 12500   2.5  36.5  265  15  8   6.9   3.8 |   1.9  35.4  260  10  5   8.5   4.7
 12000   3.5  38.3  260  13  6   7.1   3.9 |   3.2  37.8  260   9  4   7.6   4.2
 11500   4.6  40.3  260  10  5   7.1   3.9 |   4.3  39.7  260   8  4   7.8   4.3
 11000   5.5  41.9  250   8  4   5.5   3.0 |   5.4  41.7  255   7  4   7.0   3.8
 10500   6.3  43.3  240   8  4   5.0   2.7 |   6.5  43.7  250   7  4   7.2   4.0
 10250   6.6  43.9  240   7  4   2.8   1.5 |   6.9  44.4  250   7  4   3.7   2.0
 10000   6.8  44.2  235   7  4   4.4   2.4 |   7.1  44.8  245   7  4   4.5   2.5
  9750   7.3  45.1  230   7  4   6.8   3.7 |   7.7  45.9  245   7  4   8.0   4.4
  9500   7.7  45.9  225   7  4   5.3   2.9 |   8.2  46.8  245   7  4   6.9   3.8
  9250   8.0  46.4  225   7  3   2.6   1.5 |   8.6  47.5  240   8  4   4.1   2.2
  9000   8.1  46.6  220   6  3   1.1   0.6 |   8.8  47.8  240   7  4   1.3   0.7
  8750   8.2  46.8  220   6  3   1.6   0.9 |   8.9  48.0  240   7  4   1.5   0.8
  8500   8.3  46.9  220   6  3   0.4   0.2 |   9.0  48.2  240   7  4   0.8   0.4
  8250   8.2  46.8  210   6  3  -1.6  -0.9 |   8.9  48.0  235   7  4  -1.3  -0.7
  8000   8.0  46.4  195   6  3  -1.1  -0.6 |   8.8  47.8  230   7  3  -1.0  -0.6
  7750   8.0  46.4  175   6  3  -0.2  -0.1 |   8.8  47.8  225   6  3   0.4   0.2
  7500   8.0  46.4  160   6  3   4.7   2.6 |   8.9  48.0  220   6  3   4.1   2.2
  7250   8.6  47.5  160   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   9.4  48.9  200   8  4   7.3   4.0
  7000   9.1  48.4  160   6  3   7.6   4.2 |   9.9  49.8  190  11  5   6.6   3.6
  6750   9.8  49.6  160   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  10.4  50.7  180  13  7   6.2   3.4
  6500  10.5  50.9  160   6  3  10.5   5.8 |  10.9  51.6  180  14  7   7.7   4.2
  6250  11.3  52.3  160   5  3   9.9   5.4 |  11.5  52.7  175  13  7   9.0   4.9
  6000  12.0  53.6  160   5  3  10.9   6.0 |  12.2  54.0  175  12  6   8.7   4.8
  5750  13.0  55.4  155   5  3  14.1   7.8 |  12.8  55.0  170  11  6   6.7   3.7
  5500  14.1  57.4  155   5  2  16.6   9.1 |  13.1  55.6  165   8  4   2.9   1.6
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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