Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 301230
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0630 MDT Monday, March 30, 2015

This forecast is for Monday, March 30, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 68.6 F/20.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1232 ft/min (6.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 17909 ft MSL (13070 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11031 ft MSL (6191 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 03/31...... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:02:04 / 19:34:46 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 32 min 42 sec (752 min 42 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:18:35 MDT... 54.76 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/30/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 12109 ft MSL (7270 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21594 ft MSL (16755 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20627 ft MSL (15788 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.8
K index......................... -6.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.9 -75.8   265   30   15   6.0   3.3  100.5 212.9    43.4      M    M
 45000  -53.6 -64.5   265   44   23   3.1   1.7   86.3 187.3    37.8      M    M
 40000  -58.1 -72.6   265   33   17  -0.2  -0.1   56.2 133.2    20.7      M    M
 38000  -54.9 -66.8   270   32   16   0.5   0.3   51.0 123.8    17.9      M    M
 36000  -54.7 -66.5   265   35   18   2.9   1.6   42.7 108.8    12.6      M    M
 34000  -54.6 -66.3   270   27   14  -3.1  -1.7   34.5  94.1     7.1      M    M
 32000  -51.1 -60.0   255   16    8   8.5   4.7   31.1  88.0     4.9      M    M
 30000  -45.3 -49.5   265   16    8   9.2   5.0   31.1  87.9     4.9      M    M
 29000  -42.6 -44.7   270   17    9   9.2   5.0   30.7  87.3     4.8      M    M
 28000  -39.8 -39.6   270   19   10   9.1   5.0   30.6  87.0     4.7      M    M
 27000  -37.3 -35.1   275   20   10   7.4   4.0   30.1  86.2     4.4      M    M
 26000  -34.8 -30.6   275   22   11   8.0   4.4   29.6  85.2     4.0      M    M
 25000  -32.2 -26.0   270   23   12   9.6   5.3   29.2  84.5     3.7      M    M
 24000  -29.8 -21.6   265   25   13   8.5   4.7   28.6  83.4     3.3      M    M
 23000  -27.1 -16.8   265   26   13   9.1   5.0   28.3  82.9     3.1      M    M
 22000  -24.3 -11.7   270   24   12   8.7   4.8   28.0  82.4     2.9      M    M
 21000  -21.7  -7.1   280   21   11   8.5   4.7   27.6  81.7     2.6      M    M
 20000  -19.1  -2.4   290   20   10   6.8   3.7   26.4  79.5     1.7      M    M
 19500  -18.1  -0.6   285   22   12   6.8   3.7   25.9  78.6     1.2      M    M
 19000  -17.0   1.4   285   25   13   7.3   4.0   25.4  77.7     0.8      M    M
 18500  -15.9   3.4   280   26   13   7.7   4.2   25.0  77.0     0.4      M    M
 18000  -14.9   5.2   275   27   14   5.8   3.2   24.5  76.1     0.0      M    M
 17500  -14.0   6.8   275   29   15   5.6   3.1   23.8  74.8    -0.7   1193  6.1
 17000  -12.9   8.8   270   30   15   9.4   5.2   23.4  74.2    -1.0   1145  5.8
 16500  -11.5  11.3   275   30   15   9.1   5.0   23.3  73.9    -1.1   1089  5.5
 16000  -10.2  13.6   275   30   16   9.0   5.0   23.2  73.8    -1.2   1033  5.2
 15500   -8.8  16.2   285   31   16   9.0   5.0   23.1  73.5    -1.3    978  5.0
 15000   -7.5  18.5   290   33   17   9.0   5.0   23.0  73.3    -1.4    922  4.7
 14500   -6.1  21.0   290   32   17   9.0   5.0   22.8  73.1    -1.5    867  4.4
 14000   -4.7  23.5   290   32   16   9.1   5.0   22.7  72.9    -1.6    811  4.1
 13500   -3.4  25.9   290   30   15   8.4   4.6   22.6  72.6    -1.8    756  3.8
 13000   -2.2  28.0   285   28   14   8.3   4.6   22.3  72.2    -2.0    704  3.6
 12500   -0.9  30.4   285   26   13   8.3   4.6   22.1  71.8    -2.3    652  3.3
 12000    0.3  32.5   280   24   12   8.3   4.6   21.9  71.4    -2.5    600  3.0
 11500    1.5  34.7   280   22   11   8.4   4.6   21.6  71.0    -2.8    548  2.8
 11000    2.8  37.0   275   20   11   8.3   4.6   21.4  70.5    -3.0    497  2.5
 10500    4.0  39.2   275   19   10   7.6   4.2   21.2  70.2    -3.3    445  2.3
 10250    4.5  40.1   275   17    9   7.8   4.3   21.0  69.8    -3.5    422  2.1
 10000    5.2  41.4   275   13    7   9.0   4.9   20.9  69.7    -3.5    395  2.0
  9750    5.8  42.4   270   12    6   8.6   4.7   20.8  69.5    -3.6    367  1.9
  9500    6.5  43.7   265   12    6   8.7   4.8   20.8  69.4    -3.7    340  1.7
  9250    7.1  44.8   260   11    6   8.7   4.8   20.7  69.2    -3.8    313  1.6
  9000    7.8  46.0   255   11    6   8.7   4.8   20.6  69.1    -3.9    286  1.5
  8750    8.5  47.3   255   10    5   8.7   4.8   20.5  69.0    -4.0    259  1.3
  8500    9.1  48.4   250    9    4   8.7   4.8   20.4  68.8    -4.1    232  1.2
  8250    9.8  49.6   245    7    4   8.7   4.8   20.4  68.7    -4.1    205  1.0
  8000   10.4  50.7   240    6    3   8.6   4.7   20.3  68.5    -4.2    178  0.9
  7750   11.1  52.0   220    6    3   9.1   5.0   20.2  68.4    -4.3    151  0.8
  7500   11.7  53.1   200    8    4   7.0   3.9   20.1  68.2    -4.4    124  0.6
  7250   12.1  53.8   185   10    5   4.8   2.6   19.8  67.6    -4.8    105  0.5
  7000   12.4  54.3   175   12    6   1.1   0.6   19.3  66.7    -5.3     90  0.5
  6750   12.3  54.1   170   14    7  -2.0  -1.1   18.4  65.2    -6.1     86  0.4
  6500   12.2  54.0   160   16    8  -1.2  -0.6   17.6  63.7    -7.0     81  0.4
  6250   12.1  53.8   155   17    9  -1.2  -0.7   16.7  62.1    -7.8     77  0.4
  6000   11.9  53.4   150   19   10  -1.7  -1.0   15.9  60.6    -8.7     73  0.4
  5750   11.8  53.2   150   18    9   0.4   0.2   15.1  59.1    -9.6     69  0.4
  5500   12.1  53.8   145   15    8   7.2   3.9   14.6  58.3   -10.1     54  0.3
  5250   12.5  54.5   140   13    7  -0.2  -0.1   14.3  57.8   -10.4     33  0.2
  5000   11.4  52.5   130   11    5 -32.2 -17.7   12.5  54.5   -12.3     60  0.3

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/30/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       03/30/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +1.8  LI... +2.4                | K index... +16.3  LI... +0.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -3.4                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.7 -73.7  280  26 13   2.5   1.4 | -58.9 -74.0  285  27 14   3.1   1.7
 45000 -55.2 -67.4  275  32 17  -1.6  -0.9 | -54.7 -66.5  275  32 16  -2.3  -1.3
 40000 -56.9 -70.4  275  27 14  -1.1  -0.6 | -57.2 -71.0  285  22 11  -1.7  -1.0
 38000 -56.2 -69.2  280  21 11   2.3   1.3 | -56.7 -70.1  285  16  8   2.2   1.2
 36000 -54.8 -66.6  290  15  8   2.3   1.3 | -55.4 -67.7  285  10  5   2.2   1.2
 34000 -52.6 -62.7  300  11  6   5.9   3.3 | -53.2 -63.8  290   7  4   6.4   3.5
 32000 -49.1 -56.4  305  12  6   5.9   3.3 | -49.4 -56.9  290   9  5   6.4   3.5
 30000 -44.9 -48.8  300  14  7   8.3   4.6 | -45.1 -49.2  295  11  6   8.7   4.8
 29000 -42.5 -44.5  300  15  8   8.3   4.6 | -42.5 -44.5  295  13  7   8.7   4.7
 28000 -40.0 -40.0  295  16  8   8.3   4.6 | -39.9 -39.8  295  15  8   8.7   4.7
 27000 -37.5 -35.5  295  17  9   8.5   4.7 | -37.3 -35.1  295  17  9   8.4   4.6
 26000 -34.9 -30.8  295  18  9   8.5   4.6 | -34.8 -30.6  295  19 10   8.4   4.6
 25000 -32.4 -26.3  300  19 10   8.5   4.6 | -32.2 -26.0  295  21 11   8.4   4.6
 24000 -29.8 -21.6  300  20 10   8.1   4.4 | -29.7 -21.5  295  22 11   8.0   4.4
 23000 -27.4 -17.3  300  21 11   8.1   4.4 | -27.4 -17.3  295  22 12   8.0   4.4
 22000 -25.0 -13.0  305  22 11   8.1   4.4 | -24.4 -11.9  295  23 12   8.1   4.4
 21000 -22.0  -7.6  305  23 12   7.7   4.2 | -22.0  -7.6  300  23 12   7.9   4.3
 20000 -19.7  -3.5  305  23 12   7.7   4.2 | -19.7  -3.5  300  24 12   7.9   4.3
 19500 -18.6  -1.5  305  23 12   7.7   4.2 | -18.5  -1.3  300  24 12   7.9   4.3
 19000 -17.4   0.7  305  23 12   7.9   4.3 | -17.3   0.9  300  24 12   8.2   4.5
 18500 -16.2   2.8  305  23 12   8.0   4.4 | -16.1   3.0  305  25 13   8.3   4.6
 18000 -15.0   5.0  305  23 12   8.1   4.4 | -14.8   5.4  305  25 13   8.3   4.6
 17500 -13.8   7.2  310  23 12   8.4   4.6 | -13.6   7.5  305  25 13   8.1   4.5
 17000 -12.6   9.3  310  23 12   8.3   4.6 | -12.4   9.7  305  24 13   8.2   4.5
 16500 -11.3  11.7  310  23 12   8.5   4.7 | -11.2  11.8  305  24 12   8.6   4.7
 16000 -10.0  14.0  310  23 12   8.6   4.7 |  -9.9  14.2  305  23 12   8.7   4.7
 15500  -8.7  16.3  310  23 12   8.7   4.7 |  -8.7  16.3  305  22 12   8.8   4.8
 15000  -7.5  18.5  315  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -7.4  18.7  305  22 11   8.9   4.9
 14500  -6.2  20.8  315  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -6.1  21.0  305  21 11   8.9   4.9
 14000  -4.9  23.2  315  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -4.7  23.5  305  20 10   8.9   4.9
 13500  -3.6  25.5  315  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -3.4  25.9  300  19 10   8.9   4.9
 13000  -2.3  27.9  315  22 11   8.8   4.8 |  -2.1  28.2  300  18  9   8.9   4.9
 12500  -1.0  30.2  315  21 11   8.8   4.8 |  -0.7  30.7  300  17  9   9.0   4.9
 12000   0.3  32.5  315  20 10   8.8   4.8 |   0.6  33.1  300  15  8   8.7   4.8
 11500   1.6  34.9  310  19 10   8.8   4.8 |   1.9  35.4  305  14  7   8.7   4.8
 11000   2.9  37.2  310  17  9   9.1   5.0 |   3.2  37.8  305  13  6   8.3   4.5
 10500   4.3  39.7  305  16  8   9.1   5.0 |   4.5  40.1  305  11  6   8.1   4.4
 10250   4.8  40.6  300  16  8   4.6   2.5 |   5.0  41.0  300  11  6   4.4   2.4
 10000   5.1  41.2  300  15  8   7.5   4.1 |   5.3  41.5  300  10  5   7.3   4.0
  9750   6.0  42.8  300  15  8  13.3   7.3 |   6.1  43.0  300  10  5  12.0   6.6
  9500   6.9  44.4  295  14  7  11.2   6.2 |   6.9  44.4  300   9  5  10.2   5.6
  9250   7.7  45.9  295  13  7   7.9   4.3 |   7.6  45.7  300   8  4   7.7   4.2
  9000   8.1  46.6  295  12  6   6.2   3.4 |   8.2  46.8  300   8  4   7.0   3.8
  8750   8.7  47.7  295  11  6   8.1   4.4 |   8.8  47.8  300   7  4   8.9   4.9
  8500   9.3  48.7  295  10  5   6.5   3.6 |   9.4  48.9  295   6  3   7.5   4.1
  8250   9.7  49.5  290   8  4   3.8   2.1 |   9.9  49.8  295   5  3   5.5   3.0
  8000   9.9  49.8  290   7  4   3.2   1.7 |  10.3  50.5  295   4  2   4.9   2.7
  7750  10.2  50.4  285   5  3   3.3   1.8 |  10.6  51.1  290   2  1   4.0   2.2
  7500  10.4  50.7  270   3  2   3.0   1.7 |  10.9  51.6  250   1  1   4.4   2.4
  7250  10.6  51.1  250   2  1   2.8   1.5 |  11.3  52.3  205   1  1   5.4   3.0
  7000  10.8  51.4  205   2  1   3.1   1.7 |  11.7  53.1  175   1  1   4.9   2.7
  6750  11.1  52.0  165   2  1   2.5   1.4 |  12.1  53.8  160   2  1   7.0   3.8
  6500  11.2  52.2  150   3  2  -0.7  -0.4 |  12.7  54.9  155   2  1  10.2   5.6
  6250  11.0  51.8  135   4  2  -1.1  -0.6 |  13.5  56.3  160   2  1  10.9   6.0
  6000  10.9  51.6  125   5  3  -4.3  -2.4 |  14.3  57.7  160   2  1  10.4   5.7
  5750  10.3  50.5  125   6  3  -7.7  -4.2 |  15.2  59.4  165   2  1  15.6   8.6
  5500   9.8  49.6  110   5  2  -2.2  -1.2 |  16.7  62.1  160   2  1  25.0  13.7
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/30/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       03/30/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +13.3  LI... +1.0               | K index... +7.2  LI... +1.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.1 -74.4  290  27 14   2.8   1.5 | -58.7 -73.7  295  26 14   3.1   1.7
 45000 -55.3 -67.5  285  32 16  -2.1  -1.1 | -54.4 -65.9  290  31 16  -2.7  -1.5
 40000 -57.7 -71.9  285  18  9  -1.4  -0.8 | -58.0 -72.4  290  20 10  -2.2  -1.2
 38000 -56.7 -70.1  290  14  7   2.9   1.6 | -56.9 -70.4  300  16  8   3.6   2.0
 36000 -55.0 -67.0  305  10  5   2.9   1.6 | -54.7 -66.5  320  12  6   3.6   2.0
 34000 -52.7 -62.9  310   8  4   5.7   3.1 | -52.1 -61.8  335  11  5   5.9   3.2
 32000 -49.3 -56.7  285  10  5   5.7   3.1 | -48.6 -55.5  305  11  6   5.9   3.2
 30000 -45.2 -49.4  280  13  7   8.5   4.7 | -44.6 -48.3  290  14  7   7.8   4.3
 29000 -42.7 -44.9  285  15  8   8.5   4.6 | -42.3 -44.1  290  15  8   7.8   4.3
 28000 -40.2 -40.4  290  18  9   8.5   4.6 | -40.0 -40.0  290  17  9   7.8   4.3
 27000 -37.0 -34.6  290  20 10   8.4   4.6 | -37.0 -34.6  290  18 10   8.4   4.6
 26000 -34.5 -30.1  290  22 11   8.4   4.6 | -34.5 -30.1  295  20 10   8.4   4.6
 25000 -32.0 -25.6  290  23 12   8.4   4.6 | -31.9 -25.4  300  21 11   8.4   4.6
 24000 -29.5 -21.1  290  24 12   8.2   4.5 | -29.5 -21.1  300  22 11   8.4   4.6
 23000 -27.0 -16.6  290  24 12   8.3   4.5 | -27.0 -16.6  300  22 11   8.4   4.6
 22000 -24.6 -12.3  290  24 12   8.3   4.5 | -24.5 -12.1  300  21 11   8.4   4.6
 21000 -22.2  -8.0  290  24 12   8.1   4.4 | -22.0  -7.6  300  21 11   8.1   4.4
 20000 -19.8  -3.6  290  24 12   8.1   4.4 | -19.6  -3.3  295  21 11   8.1   4.4
 19500 -18.6  -1.5  290  24 12   8.1   4.4 | -18.4  -1.1  295  21 11   8.1   4.4
 19000 -17.4   0.7  290  24 12   8.2   4.5 | -17.2   1.0  290  21 11   8.2   4.5
 18500 -16.1   3.0  290  24 12   8.4   4.6 | -16.0   3.2  290  20 10   8.7   4.8
 18000 -14.9   5.2  290  24 12   8.4   4.6 | -14.7   5.5  285  19 10   8.7   4.8
 17500 -13.6   7.5  290  24 12   8.7   4.8 | -13.4   7.9  285  19 10   8.7   4.8
 17000 -12.3   9.9  290  23 12   8.7   4.8 | -12.1  10.2  280  18  9   8.7   4.8
 16500 -11.0  12.2  290  23 12   8.6   4.7 | -10.8  12.6  280  18  9   8.8   4.8
 16000  -9.8  14.4  290  22 11   8.5   4.7 |  -9.4  15.1  280  18  9   9.0   4.9
 15500  -8.5  16.7  290  21 11   8.6   4.7 |  -8.1  17.4  275  17  9   9.0   4.9
 15000  -7.2  19.0  290  20 10   8.9   4.9 |  -6.7  19.9  275  17  9   9.4   5.2
 14500  -5.9  21.4  290  19 10   8.9   4.9 |  -5.3  22.5  275  17  9   9.4   5.2
 14000  -4.6  23.7  285  19 10   9.4   5.1 |  -3.9  25.0  275  17  9   9.1   5.0
 13500  -2.5  27.5  285  18  9   9.3   5.1 |  -1.9  28.6  280  16  8   9.2   5.0
 13000  -1.1  30.0  285  17  9   9.4   5.1 |  -0.5  31.1  280  16  8   9.3   5.1
 12500   0.3  32.5  280  17  9   9.2   5.1 |   0.9  33.6  280  15  8   9.2   5.1
 12000   1.6  34.9  280  16  8   8.8   4.8 |   2.2  36.0  280  15  8   9.1   5.0
 11500   3.0  37.4  280  15  8   8.8   4.8 |   3.6  38.5  280  14  7   9.1   5.0
 11000   4.3  39.7  280  14  7   8.6   4.7 |   4.9  40.8  280  14  7   8.6   4.7
 10500   5.6  42.1  275  14  7   5.0   2.7 |   6.3  43.3  285  13  7   4.8   2.6
 10250   5.8  42.4  275  13  7   5.8   3.2 |   6.5  43.7  285  13  7   5.6   3.1
 10000   6.6  43.9  275  12  6  11.4   6.3 |   7.2  45.0  285  13  7  11.3   6.2
  9750   7.3  45.1  280  12  6  10.7   5.9 |   8.0  46.4  285  13  7  10.0   5.5
  9500   8.1  46.6  280  11  6   8.8   4.8 |   8.7  47.7  285  13  7   9.4   5.2
  9250   8.6  47.5  280  10  5   6.3   3.4 |   9.4  48.9  285  13  7   7.6   4.1
  9000   9.2  48.6  280   9  5   8.1   4.4 |   9.9  49.8  285  12  6   8.1   4.4
  8750   9.8  49.6  280   8  4   9.2   5.1 |  10.6  51.1  285  12  6   9.1   5.0
  8500  10.5  50.9  280   6  3   8.0   4.4 |  11.2  52.2  290  11  6   8.0   4.4
  8250  11.0  51.8  280   5  3   7.1   3.9 |  11.7  53.1  290   9  5   6.9   3.8
  8000  11.6  52.9  280   5  2   7.5   4.1 |  12.2  54.0  290   8  4   6.8   3.7
  7750  12.1  53.8  280   4  2   8.1   4.4 |  12.7  54.9  290   6  3   6.5   3.6
  7500  12.8  55.0  275   4  2   9.4   5.1 |  13.2  55.8  290   5  2   7.9   4.3
  7250  13.5  56.3  275   4  2   9.9   5.4 |  13.9  57.0  285   4  2   8.9   4.9
  7000  14.2  57.6  275   3  2  10.1   5.5 |  14.5  58.1  280   3  2   9.0   4.9
  6750  15.0  59.0  275   3  2  10.8   5.9 |  15.2  59.4  280   3  2  10.0   5.5
  6500  15.8  60.4  270   3  2  11.0   6.0 |  15.9  60.6  275   3  2  10.3   5.6
  6250  16.6  61.9  270   3  2  11.2   6.1 |  16.7  62.1  275   3  2  10.7   5.8
  6000  17.5  63.5  270   3  2  10.2   5.6 |  17.5  63.5  270   3  2   9.4   5.1
  5750  18.2  64.8  270   3  2  11.6   6.3 |  18.1  64.6  270   3  1   8.3   4.5
  5500  19.2  66.6  270   3  2  13.9   7.6 |  18.7  65.7  270   3  1   8.9   4.9
  5250  20.2  68.4  270   3  2  12.1   6.6 |  19.4  66.9  270   3  1   8.3   4.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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