Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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919
UXUS97 KGJT 051322
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0622 MST Friday, February 5, 2016

This forecast is for Friday, February 5, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 32.6 F/0.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 272 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8959 ft MSL (4120 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 33.0 F/1.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7681 ft MSL (2841 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 02/06..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:17:10 / 17:38:07 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 20 min 58 sec (620 min 58 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:27:59 MST... 35.01 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/05/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 10908 ft MSL (6069 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9873 ft MSL (5033 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.7
K index......................... +4.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -53.9 -65.0   310   28   14   4.8   2.6  116.7 242.1    65.3      M    M
 45000  -53.1 -63.6   325   32   17   0.0   0.0   91.8 197.2    55.0      M    M
 40000  -51.7 -61.1   325   58   30  -8.7  -4.7   70.6 159.1    45.1      M    M
 38000  -53.2 -63.8   315   60   31   1.7   0.9   59.3 138.8    38.9      M    M
 36000  -52.2 -62.0   320   45   23  -5.8  -3.2   52.1 125.8    35.0      M    M
 34000  -50.3 -58.5   335   45   23   6.4   3.5   46.2 115.1    31.8      M    M
 32000  -47.9 -54.2   350   64   33  -2.9  -1.6   40.4 104.7    28.6      M    M
 30000  -48.2 -54.8   350   94   48   1.0   0.6   32.1  89.8    23.3      M    M
 29000  -47.4 -53.3   350   96   49   5.4   3.0   29.1  84.4    21.3      M    M
 28000  -45.9 -50.6   350   98   50   5.3   2.9   27.4  81.2    20.3      M    M
 27000  -44.6 -48.3   355   90   46  -1.4  -0.7   25.1  77.2    18.8      M    M
 26000  -44.0 -47.2   355   83   43   5.2   2.8   22.1  71.8    16.7      M    M
 25000  -42.4 -44.3   360   76   39   5.5   3.0   20.4  68.8    15.6      M    M
 24000  -40.7 -41.3   355   77   40   5.5   3.0   18.8  65.8    14.5      M    M
 23000  -39.0 -38.2   355   75   39   6.6   3.6   17.3  63.1    13.5      M    M
 22000  -37.0 -34.6   355   67   35   6.5   3.6   16.1  60.9    12.7      M    M
 21000  -35.1 -31.2   360   59   31   5.8   3.2   15.0  59.0    11.9      M    M
 20000  -33.9 -29.0   360   52   27   3.5   1.9   12.9  55.3    10.4      M    M
 19500  -33.1 -27.6   360   50   26   6.9   3.8   12.1  53.7     9.7      M    M
 19000  -32.1 -25.8   360   49   25   7.1   3.9   11.6  52.9     9.3      M    M
 18500  -31.0 -23.8   360   49   25   7.1   3.9   11.1  52.0     9.0      M    M
 18000  -30.0 -22.0   360   47   24   6.9   3.8   10.7  51.2     8.7      M    M
 17500  -28.9 -20.0   355   45   23   6.9   3.8   10.2  50.3     8.3      M    M
 17000  -27.4 -17.3   350   42   21   6.7   3.7    9.4  48.9     7.7      M    M
 16500  -26.4 -15.5   350   40   20   6.5   3.5    8.9  48.0     7.3      M    M
 16000  -25.4 -13.7   345   37   19   2.6   1.4    8.4  47.1     6.9      M    M
 15500  -25.3 -13.5   345   32   17   3.8   2.1    6.9  44.5     5.6      M    M
 15000  -24.3 -11.7   345   28   14   8.9   4.9    6.3  43.4     5.1      M    M
 14500  -23.0  -9.4   350   27   14   8.5   4.6    6.1  43.1     4.9      M    M
 14000  -21.7  -7.1   350   27   14   8.0   4.4    6.0  42.8     4.8      M    M
 13500  -21.4  -6.5   350   28   14   1.8   1.0    4.8  40.6     3.7      M    M
 13000  -20.3  -4.5   350   29   15   9.2   5.0    4.4  39.9     3.3      M    M
 12500  -19.0  -2.2   350   30   15   9.0   4.9    4.2  39.6     3.2      M    M
 12000  -17.6   0.3   350   31   16   9.0   5.0    4.1  39.5     3.2      M    M
 11500  -16.3   2.7   350   32   16   8.3   4.5    4.0  39.1     3.0      M    M
 11000  -15.1   4.8   350   33   17   8.2   4.5    3.7  38.7     2.8      M    M
 10500  -13.9   7.0   355   32   16   8.5   4.7    3.5  38.2     2.5      M    M
 10250  -13.3   8.1   355   31   16   6.8   3.7    3.3  38.0     2.4      M    M
 10000  -13.0   8.6   355   29   15   3.7   2.0    3.0  37.3     2.1      M    M
  9750  -12.7   9.1   355   26   13   3.3   1.8    2.4  36.4     1.5      M    M
  9500  -12.5   9.5   350   23   12   3.5   1.9    1.9  35.5     1.1      M    M
  9250  -12.2  10.0   350   20   10   3.5   1.9    1.4  34.6     0.6      M    M
  9000  -12.0  10.4   345   17    9   3.5   1.9    1.0  33.7     0.1      M    M
  8750  -11.7  10.9   345   15    8   3.5   1.9    0.5  32.8    -0.4    261  1.3
  8500  -11.5  11.3   340   13    7   3.7   2.0   -0.0  31.9    -0.9    246  1.3
  8250  -11.2  11.8   335   10    5   2.9   1.6   -0.5  31.1    -1.3    231  1.2
  8000  -11.0  12.2   330    8    4   5.9   3.2   -1.0  30.2    -1.8    216  1.1
  7750  -10.7  12.7   325    7    4  -5.4  -3.0   -1.5  29.3    -2.3    201  1.0
  7500  -11.6  11.1   310    6    3 -10.2  -5.6   -3.2  26.3    -3.9    221  1.1
  7250  -11.7  10.9   295    5    3   5.5   3.0   -4.0  24.7    -4.8    217  1.1
  7000  -11.5  11.3   280    5    3  -8.5  -4.6   -4.6  23.7    -5.3    204  1.0
  6750  -12.5   9.5   275    4    2  -4.5  -2.5   -6.4  20.5    -7.1    226  1.1
  6500  -11.9  10.6   275    3    2  12.3   6.7   -6.5  20.4    -7.2    199  1.0
  6250  -11.2  11.8   275    2    1   7.8   4.3   -6.5  20.2    -7.3    172  0.9
  6000  -10.6  12.9   275    1    1   9.1   5.0   -6.6  20.1    -7.4    145  0.7
  5750   -9.9  14.2   260    1    1   8.4   4.6   -6.7  20.0    -7.5    119  0.6
  5500   -9.3  15.3   240    1    1   9.8   5.4   -6.8  19.8    -7.6     92  0.5
  5250   -8.6  16.5   230    2    1   5.0   2.7   -6.8  19.7    -7.7     65  0.3
  5000   -8.7  16.3   125    1    1  -5.2  -2.9   -7.6  18.3    -8.5     59  0.3

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/05/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/05/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -6.9  LI... +279.6              | K index... -12.6  LI... +283.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.3 -65.7  320  26 13   0.5   0.2 | -54.8 -66.6  320  28 14   0.8   0.5
 45000 -53.7 -64.7  335  33 17   0.4   0.2 | -53.5 -64.3  325  31 16   0.9   0.5
 40000 -51.6 -60.9  340  40 21   1.5   0.8 | -54.5 -66.1  340  46 24  -0.8  -0.4
 38000 -51.1 -60.0  345  45 23  -2.2  -1.2 | -55.0 -67.0  350  54 28  -0.8  -0.4
 36000 -52.4 -62.3  355  56 29  -2.1  -1.2 | -55.6 -68.1  360  70 36  -0.8  -0.4
 34000 -53.8 -64.8  005  69 36  -1.6  -0.9 | -56.0 -68.8  005  85 44   2.4   1.3
 32000 -52.1 -61.8  005  76 39   3.2   1.8 | -52.9 -63.2  010  84 43   5.2   2.8
 30000 -50.2 -58.4  005  83 43   4.2   2.3 | -49.7 -57.5  010  83 43   7.0   3.9
 29000 -48.4 -55.1  005  82 42   6.2   3.4 | -47.5 -53.5  010  80 41   7.5   4.1
 28000 -46.6 -51.9  005  80 41   6.2   3.4 | -45.3 -49.5  010  77 40   7.5   4.1
 27000 -44.7 -48.5  005  78 40   6.2   3.4 | -43.0 -45.4  010  75 38   7.5   4.1
 26000 -42.6 -44.7  005  78 40   8.1   4.4 | -40.8 -41.4  005  72 37   7.2   3.9
 25000 -40.1 -40.2  010  79 41   8.1   4.5 | -38.7 -37.7  005  68 35   7.2   3.9
 24000 -37.7 -35.9  010  79 41   8.1   4.4 | -36.5 -33.7  005  65 34   7.2   3.9
 23000 -35.4 -31.7  010  78 40   7.1   3.9 | -34.3 -29.7  005  62 32   7.6   4.2
 22000 -33.3 -27.9  010  75 39   7.1   3.9 | -32.0 -25.6  005  59 30   7.6   4.2
 21000 -31.2 -24.2  010  72 37   7.4   4.1 | -29.7 -21.5  005  56 29   7.7   4.2
 20000 -29.6 -21.3  010  65 33   4.4   2.4 | -26.8 -16.2  005  53 27   7.8   4.3
 19500 -28.7 -19.7  010  59 30   4.4   2.4 | -25.6 -14.1  005  52 27   7.8   4.3
 19000 -28.0 -18.4  010  55 28   4.5   2.5 | -24.5 -12.1  010  51 26   7.8   4.3
 18500 -27.3 -17.1  010  51 26   6.0   3.3 | -23.3  -9.9  010  50 26   8.1   4.4
 18000 -26.2 -15.2  010  49 25   8.1   4.4 | -22.0  -7.6  010  49 25   8.1   4.4
 17500 -24.9 -12.8  010  47 24   8.2   4.5 | -20.8  -5.4  010  47 24   7.0   3.9
 17000 -23.7 -10.7  005  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -20.1  -4.2  010  45 23   3.4   1.9
 16500 -22.5  -8.5  005  40 20   8.5   4.6 | -19.6  -3.3  015  43 22   3.4   1.9
 16000 -21.7  -7.1  360  37 19   1.8   1.0 | -19.0  -2.2  015  41 21   4.9   2.7
 15500 -21.5  -6.7  360  35 18   1.1   0.6 | -18.3  -0.9  015  39 20   4.6   2.5
 15000 -21.3  -6.3  360  32 17   2.8   1.5 | -17.5   0.5  010  36 19   6.2   3.4
 14500 -20.8  -5.4  360  28 14   3.6   2.0 | -16.6   2.1  010  34 18   6.5   3.6
 14000 -20.2  -4.4  360  23 12   4.0   2.2 | -15.8   3.6  005  32 16   0.9   0.5
 13500 -19.6  -3.3  360  20 10   4.4   2.4 | -16.0   3.2  005  28 14  -1.1  -0.6
 13000 -19.0  -2.2  360  17  9   6.0   3.3 | -16.2   2.8  360  24 12  -0.1  -0.0
 12500 -17.9  -0.2  005  17  9   7.4   4.1 | -16.1   3.0  005  20 10   0.4   0.2
 12000 -16.7   1.9  010  16  8   7.3   4.0 | -15.9   3.4  005  16  8   4.4   2.4
 11500 -15.7   3.7  015  17  9   7.1   3.9 | -15.0   5.0  010  14  7   5.9   3.2
 11000 -14.7   5.5  020  18  9   7.0   3.8 | -14.2   6.4  020  13  7   5.8   3.2
 10500 -13.6   7.5  020  19 10   6.9   3.8 | -13.3   8.1  025  13  7   5.7   3.2
 10250 -13.1   8.4  025  19 10   7.3   4.0 | -12.9   8.8  025  12  6   6.0   3.3
 10000 -12.6   9.3  025  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -12.4   9.7  030  12  6   6.6   3.6
  9750 -11.9  10.6  025  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -12.0  10.4  030  12  6   6.0   3.3
  9500 -11.4  11.5  025  19 10   6.9   3.8 | -11.6  11.1  035  12  6   5.3   2.9
  9250 -10.9  12.4  025  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -11.2  11.8  035  12  6   5.9   3.2
  9000 -10.4  13.3  025  18  9   6.5   3.5 | -10.7  12.7  035  12  6   6.2   3.4
  8750 -10.0  14.0  025  17  9   6.8   3.7 | -10.3  13.5  035  12  6   5.9   3.3
  8500  -9.5  14.9  025  16  8   4.4   2.4 |  -9.9  14.2  040  11  6   4.2   2.3
  8250  -9.4  15.1  025  15  7   0.0   0.0 |  -9.7  14.5  045  10  5   2.8   1.5
  8000  -9.4  15.1  025  12  6  -0.7  -0.4 |  -9.5  14.9  045   9  5   2.8   1.6
  7750  -9.5  14.9  025  10  5  -1.8  -1.0 |  -9.3  15.3  050   8  4   2.7   1.5
  7500  -9.7  14.5  030   8  4  -1.7  -0.9 |  -9.1  15.6  055   7  4   1.8   1.0
  7250  -9.7  14.5  045   5  3   0.1   0.1 |  -9.0  15.8  065   5  3   1.4   0.8
  7000  -9.7  14.5  070   4  2  -1.2  -0.7 |  -8.9  16.0  080   3  2   1.2   0.6
  6750  -9.7  14.5  105   4  2   2.3   1.3 |  -8.7  16.3  120   2  1   4.6   2.5
  6500  -9.4  15.1  120   4  2   5.5   3.0 |  -8.2  17.2  145   2  1   7.8   4.3
  6250  -9.0  15.8  135   4  2   3.9   2.1 |  -7.7  18.1  170   2  1   6.7   3.7
  6000  -8.7  16.3  150   4  2   5.7   3.1 |  -7.2  19.0  190   2  1   8.3   4.6
  5750  -8.3  17.1  155   4  2   5.4   3.0 |  -6.4  20.5  195   3  1  13.2   7.3
  5500  -8.0  17.6  155   4  2   0.6   0.3 |  -5.2  22.6  195   2  1  17.4   9.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/05/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/05/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -17.9  LI... +284.1             | K index... -21.9  LI... +285.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.3 -67.5  320  24 12   0.4   0.2 | -56.0 -68.8  325  26 13   0.4   0.2
 45000 -54.7 -66.5  320  26 13   0.6   0.3 | -55.3 -67.5  320  32 17   0.9   0.5
 40000 -58.0 -72.4  345  50 26  -2.4  -1.3 | -61.8 -79.2  350  62 32  -4.7  -2.6
 38000 -58.7 -73.7  350  61 32   1.6   0.9 | -62.8 -81.0  350  72 37   4.7   2.6
 36000 -57.6 -71.7  360  75 39   1.7   0.9 | -59.6 -75.3  355  75 38   4.7   2.6
 34000 -56.3 -69.3  005  87 45   6.9   3.8 | -56.4 -69.5  360  76 39   8.9   4.9
 32000 -52.1 -61.8  360  83 43   7.0   3.8 | -51.3 -60.3  355  74 38   8.5   4.7
 30000 -47.8 -54.0  360  79 41   7.3   4.0 | -46.3 -51.3  355  71 36   7.6   4.2
 29000 -45.6 -50.1  360  77 39   7.3   4.0 | -44.0 -47.2  355  67 34   7.6   4.2
 28000 -43.5 -46.3  005  74 38   7.3   4.0 | -41.7 -43.1  350  63 33   7.6   4.2
 27000 -41.3 -42.3  005  71 37   7.4   4.1 | -39.4 -38.9  350  60 31   7.9   4.3
 26000 -38.8 -37.8  005  68 35   8.3   4.5 | -36.9 -34.4  355  58 30   8.5   4.7
 25000 -36.3 -33.3  360  65 33   8.3   4.5 | -34.3 -29.7  355  56 29   8.5   4.7
 24000 -33.9 -29.0  355  62 32   8.4   4.6 | -31.8 -25.2  360  54 28   8.5   4.7
 23000 -31.6 -24.9  355  59 30   7.4   4.1 | -29.2 -20.6  355  53 27   8.4   4.6
 22000 -29.4 -20.9  355  56 29   7.4   4.1 | -26.7 -16.1  355  53 27   8.4   4.6
 21000 -27.2 -17.0  355  53 27   6.7   3.7 | -23.8 -10.8  355  51 26   5.1   2.8
 20000 -25.0 -13.0  360  48 25   5.6   3.0 | -22.2  -8.0  355  46 24   5.5   3.0
 19500 -24.2 -11.6  360  46 24   5.5   3.0 | -21.3  -6.3  360  43 22   5.5   3.0
 19000 -23.4 -10.1  360  44 22   5.4   3.0 | -20.5  -4.9  360  41 21   5.8   3.2
 18500 -22.4  -8.3  360  42 21   7.6   4.2 | -19.9  -3.8  360  38 19   2.3   1.3
 18000 -21.3  -6.3  360  40 21   7.7   4.2 | -19.6  -3.3  355  34 17   2.3   1.2
 17500 -20.1  -4.2  360  39 20   7.0   3.9 | -19.2  -2.6  355  30 16   2.5   1.4
 17000 -19.2  -2.6  005  37 19   6.2   3.4 | -18.8  -1.8  350  27 14   2.8   1.6
 16500 -18.2  -0.8  010  35 18   6.2   3.4 | -18.3  -0.9  345  25 13   3.2   1.7
 16000 -17.2   1.0  015  34 17   8.1   4.4 | -17.5   0.5  345  23 12   7.8   4.3
 15500 -16.0   3.2  015  32 17   8.4   4.6 | -16.3   2.7  345  22 12   7.5   4.1
 15000 -15.1   4.8  015  31 16   3.1   1.7 | -15.2   4.6  345  21 11   6.9   3.8
 14500 -14.6   5.7  015  28 15   3.2   1.8 | -14.2   6.4  345  20 10   7.0   3.9
 14000 -14.1   6.6  015  26 13   3.7   2.0 | -13.2   8.2  345  18  9   5.6   3.1
 13500 -13.5   7.7  010  23 12   3.9   2.2 | -12.4   9.7  340  17  9   5.6   3.1
 13000 -13.1   8.4  010  21 11   0.1   0.0 | -11.7  10.9  340  17  9   3.2   1.7
 12500 -13.2   8.2  005  19 10  -1.0  -0.5 | -11.3  11.7  340  17  9   2.7   1.5
 12000 -13.4   7.9  355  16  8  -0.9  -0.5 | -11.0  12.2  340  17  9  -0.1  -0.1
 11500 -13.6   7.5  355  13  7  -1.2  -0.6 | -11.2  11.8  340  16  8  -0.9  -0.5
 11000 -13.5   7.7  350  10  5   4.2   2.3 | -11.2  11.8  340  14  7   1.7   0.9
 10500 -12.8   9.0  355   9  4   4.6   2.5 | -10.9  12.4  345  12  6   2.0   1.1
 10250 -12.4   9.7  355   8  4   5.8   3.2 | -10.8  12.6  345  11  6   2.4   1.3
 10000 -11.9  10.6  360   7  4   7.1   3.9 | -10.6  12.9  350  10  5   2.7   1.5
  9750 -11.4  11.5  005   7  4   6.5   3.6 | -10.4  13.3  350   8  4   3.2   1.7
  9500 -11.0  12.2  005   7  3   6.2   3.4 | -10.2  13.6  350   7  3   3.9   2.1
  9250 -10.5  13.1  010   6  3   6.8   3.7 |  -9.9  14.2  350   5  3   5.6   3.1
  9000 -10.0  14.0  010   6  3   6.7   3.7 |  -9.4  15.1  350   4  2   6.8   3.7
  8750  -9.5  14.9  015   6  3   7.7   4.2 |  -8.9  16.0  350   3  2   7.0   3.8
  8500  -8.9  16.0  020   6  3   7.4   4.0 |  -8.4  16.9  345   2  1   7.2   3.9
  8250  -8.4  16.9  020   5  3   5.8   3.2 |  -7.9  17.8  340   2  1   6.5   3.6
  8000  -8.0  17.6  025   5  2   5.8   3.2 |  -7.4  18.7  330   2  1   6.5   3.6
  7750  -7.6  18.3  025   4  2   6.4   3.5 |  -6.9  19.6  315   1  1   6.4   3.5
  7500  -7.1  19.2  025   3  2   4.8   2.7 |  -6.4  20.5  305   1  1   6.0   3.3
  7250  -6.9  19.6  015   2  1   3.1   1.7 |  -6.0  21.2  285   1  1   5.7   3.1
  7000  -6.6  20.1  350   1  0   3.4   1.9 |  -5.6  21.9  265   1  1   6.1   3.4
  6750  -6.4  20.5  270   1  1   3.6   2.0 |  -5.1  22.8  245   1  1   4.0   2.2
  6500  -6.1  21.0  260   2  1   5.0   2.7 |  -5.0  23.0  240   1  1   2.5   1.4
  6250  -5.7  21.7  260   2  1   4.6   2.5 |  -4.8  23.4  240   2  1   2.4   1.3
  6000  -5.4  22.3  255   3  2   7.4   4.1 |  -4.6  23.7  235   2  1   4.9   2.7
  5750  -4.6  23.7  255   3  2  13.6   7.5 |  -4.1  24.6  235   2  1   8.2   4.5
  5500  -3.5  25.7  255   3  2  15.3   8.4 |  -3.6  25.5  240   2  1   5.5   3.0
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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