Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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989
ACUS01 KWNS 250529
SWODY1
SPC AC 250527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail and wind damage are
possible across parts of central and eastern New Mexico this
afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible across parts of southern New Mexico, southern Colorado and
west Texas.

...New Mexico/Southern Colorado/West Texas...
Northwest cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across the
Rockies and High Plains. At the surface, southeasterly flow in the
southern High Plains will reinforce a corridor of low-level moisture
from west Texas into central New Mexico. Surface dewpoints should be
in the upper 50s and lower 60s F along this corridor, which will
contribute to moderate instability with MLCAPE possibly reaching the
1500 to 2000 J/kg range.  Thunderstorms will develop in the higher
terrain of north-central New Mexico and southern Colorado, spreading
southeastward into the lower elevations. It appears that a cluster
of thunderstorms will organize to the southeast of Santa Fe and move
southeastward across east-central New Mexico during the late
afternoon and early evening eventually reaching west Texas.

Forecast soundings between Santa Fe and Clovis, NM at 00Z/Monday
show moderate deep-layer shear owing mostly to directional shear in
the low to mid levels and about 40 kt of flow in the upper levels.
0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 kt range across the
slight risk area suggesting that supercells will be possible in
areas with the strongest instability. Supercells will have a threat
for isolated large hail and wind damage. Due to steep low-level
lapse rates, multicells that can organize into short line segments
will also have a potential to produce wind damage. A marginal
wind-damage threat could persist into the mid to late evening if a
line segment can remain intact near the Texas-New Mexico state line.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 06/25/2017

$$



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