Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 310102
SWODY1
SPC AC 310100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF WRN
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
THROUGH NRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SCNTRL ND SWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND NWRN KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
EVOLVE INTO LINES. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7.5-8.5 C/KM
LAPSE RATES.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
DECREASE BY 03Z-04Z AS THE SFC LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

...WRN TX...

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS WRN TX. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER
REMAINS JUST EAST OF MIDLAND WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. CONVECTIVE-SCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RESULTING FROM
NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO A DIMINISHING TREND BY 03-04Z.

..DIAL.. 05/31/2016

$$



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