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000
ACUS01 KWNS 240600
SWODY1
SPC AC 240558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND
NWRN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING
REGIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS REGIME
WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S.
UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY EXITS THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG A 50 KT SLY LLJ. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN
KS AND WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION
WILL RESIDE JUST SE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS
BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

...SRN THROUGH SERN TX...

SWD PROPAGATING MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WING GUSTS AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 05/24/2013