Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 290100
SWODY1
SPC AC 290059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK THROUGH
NCNTRL...SCNTRL AND SWRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY LATE EVENING. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH NCNTRL SCNTRL AND SWRN TX...

STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN EXPANSIVE LINEAR MCS FROM SRN OK SWD TO
THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. THE 00Z RAOBS SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM WARM
SECTOR TO BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG
SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT IS LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS...BUT SOME STORMS WITHIN THE LINE COULD STILL ATTAIN
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
INTERACTING WITH A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE ONLY MODEST CAPPING
EXIST IN MUCH OF THE TX WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING BEFORE
ONSET OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY 03-06Z.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NM-TX
BORDER. FARTHER NORTH THROUGH KS...NEB AND SD...LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM MODES.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL INTO MID EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 05/29/2015




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