Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING. A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AT 05/12Z. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST CLEARING ALL BUT THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A DECAYING BAND OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING AT 05/12Z WHERE SOUTHWEST 850-700 MB WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MEAGER MUCAPE AT OR BELOW 250 J/KG MAY SUPPORT
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH ABOUT 15Z PRIOR TO LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT BECOMING QUITE WEAK.

...SOUTHEAST...
GUIDANCE SUGGEST DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE PRONOUNCED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S BY AFTERNOON. MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 12 G/KG SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE DEW POINTS PREDOMINATELY IN THE 60-64 DEG F RANGE. IN THE
MID/UPPER-LEVELS...RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY TO REMAIN SHALLOW.
STILL...WITH MODERATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND A RISK OF LIGHTNING.

..GRAMS.. 03/04/2015




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