Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
EARLY DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING MCS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL/RISK
MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
MID/UPPER JET WILL GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A PASSING/WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMPLIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
NOT HIGH /OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED/...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE/MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND/OR OTHERWISE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015



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