Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 270602
SWODY2
SPC AC 270601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE ADJACENT/FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.
THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- FOCUSED INVOF A COOL
FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS -- WILL SUPPORT ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN WI/NRN IL SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY
2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. -- PARTICULARLY INVOF
THE SERN SD/SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA VICINITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD AND WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY NEW/AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ACROSS ERN CO NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM IA SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE VICINITY INVOF
THE WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS.

SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW EXPECTED /20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW AT H5 ATOP MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SLYS/.  WHILE AN AREA OR TWO OF SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUCH AREAS MAY BE TIED TO BOTH SUBTLE
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW FIELD EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A BROAD/LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA
ATTM...WITH ANY UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN SOME PORTION OF THIS LEFT
FOR LATER FORECASTS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014



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