214
ACUS01 KWNS 170048
SWODY1
SPC AC 170046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU...THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An organized cluster of storms may pose a continuing risk for severe
wind gusts across parts of southern Louisiana through late evening.

...01Z Update...
A large, modestly organized cluster of storms is in the process of
propagating east-southeastward across upper Texas coastal areas and
southwestern Louisiana.  Ahead of this activity, inland of the
Louisiana coast, notable boundary-layer layer cooling has already
occurred (4-8+ degrees the past 3 hours), beneath relatively warm
layers evident in the lower/mid-troposphere in the 00Z soundings
(e.g. Lake Charles).  However, it is still possible that low-level
moistening off the Gulf of Mexico, coincident with strengthening
south to southwesterly flow (30-50+ kt) in the 850-700 layer, may
contribute to a continuing severe wind risk with the convective
cluster across at least southern portions of Louisiana through mid
to late evening.

In the wake of the prominent lead convective cluster, outflow has
contributed to substantial stabilization of the low-level
environment across much of central Texas toward upper/middle Texas
coastal areas and Deep South Texas.  Models suggest little
appreciable modification this evening, with further southward and
southwestward progression of the outflow boundary into Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.  As strong to severe convection now
spreading across the Edwards Plateau vicinity encounters this
environment during the next few hours, it seems likely to weaken.

..Kerr.. 05/17/2024

$$