Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201802 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY...
AND SOME OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE ONGOING
(ELEVATED) STORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH ON
THEIR NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY...THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT
METROPLEX TAF SITES.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL
MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...BUT INTRODUCED
VCTS 20-00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF IMPACTS
WILL BE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING...
WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FIRST PERIOD. ONE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THAT PART OF
NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN. NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA...SO
THE CURRENT 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS REGION APPEAR ON TRACK.

OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN CLEBURNE...WACO...AND
LAMPASAS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE 30 TO 40 POPS WE HAVE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA APPEAR REASONABLE. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED. WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN AREAS NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...
STEPHENVILLE...AND COMANCHE THIS MORNING WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW 80 IN
THOSE AREAS.

ALL OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLY FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS ANY PART OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY MAY BE TIED TO HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL BE WHEN
THE STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT
SURVIVAL AS THEY MOVE EAST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

09/GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              78  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             80  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            79  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            79  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            77  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/09





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.