Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260509 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...AS WNW WINDS 5-7 KTS BACK AROUND WSW/SW 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED BETWEEN DEL RIO/LAREDO
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS
LOOK REASONABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THUS WILL LET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MID 60S TO MID 70S...ON MONDAY
DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.     79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75





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