Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 262013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across North and Central Texas through late afternoon. There will
be some isolated downburst potential with the stronger storms
with the more likely hazard being heavy rainfall and localized
flooding. We have had a few tropical funnels reported around the
region which is not too surprising based on the very moist
airmass in place. We expect activity to decrease quickly around
sunset. Therefore, most outdoor activities will not be affected,
but a few showers or storms may linger into mid evening.

The moisture that is currently in place across the region will begin
to be shunted to the south and southwest tonight and Saturday as an
upper level low spins along the Texas Coast.  This will keep the
best rain chances generally across the southern zones, but all areas
will have at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon.

Upper level high pressure will build in from the east Sunday
through early next week. This will force the low on the coast to
move farther west/southwest and bring increasing subsidence/
decreasing moisture and decreasing precipitation chance to the
forecast area. There will still be a low chance for showers and
storms Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon across
the southern zones.

Upper level high pressure will build over the Central Conus the
second half of next week which will bring warmer and drier
weather to the entire region. Afternoon highs will be slightly
above seasonal normals, especially Thursday and Friday. The upper
ridge should remain in place through next weekend and keep summer
conditions going as we head into early September.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

Morning water vapor imagery shows upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. with moisture streaming north into Texas on the western
periphery. The 12Z sounding still shows some mid level dry air in
place but this will moisten up over the next couple of hours as
suggested by thicker cloud cover to the south spreading into the
region. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by
early afternoon across a good portion of the region with most of
the activity along and east of the I-35 corridor. While the
activity is expected to remain scattered in nature...there should
be enough coverage for impacts to arrivals/departures. Have made
some minor adjustments to timing based on the latest hi-res
guidance but will continue with the VCSH areawide by 16Z with VCTS
by 18Z. Thunderstorms should diminish in coverage this evening
with loss of daytime heating. Outside of convective activity...VFR
conditions should prevail with SCT/BKN050 conds.

At Waco...similar timing is expected on convective activity
although there is a little more low level moisture already in
place. Some brief MVFR cigs may occur over the next few hours so
will keep the TEMPO in through 15Z.

Dunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  75  91  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
Waco                73  90  73  89  74 /  30  30  10  30  10
Paris               72  90  72  91  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
Denton              71  90  72  91  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
McKinney            72  90  73  92  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
Dallas              75  91  76  92  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
Terrell             73  89  74  91  74 /  30  30  10  20  10
Corsicana           73  89  74  90  75 /  30  30  20  30  10
Temple              71  89  73  88  73 /  30  30  20  40  20
Mineral Wells       71  91  71  90  72 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/79



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