Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 061727
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY RESTS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTING RIDGE IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND VFR
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THIS FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
KENTUCKY SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/
NORTH TEXAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS SNOW COVER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S UNDER FULL MARCH SUN.

A CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. THE
COLD START TO THE MORNING WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY FROM
REACHING ANYWHERE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE GULF NEVER
FULLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...DECREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SINCE THE GULF WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 40S.

79



&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION AT DFW AIRPORT WILL END AT 12 DAYS. THIS
IS THE LONGEST STREAK SINCE THE SUMMER OF 2007 (13 DAYS). IT IS
THE LONGEST STREAK DURING THE COLD SEASON SINCE THE WINTER OF
1992-1993. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 15 DAYS FROM EARLY 1957.

TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE MARCH 2008 THUNDERSNOW EVENT.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DENTON AND WISE COUNTIES...5 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW FELL. SHERMAN TALLIED A WHOPPING 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  31  58  40  53 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              51  29  61  39  50 /   0   5  10  40  60
PARIS, TX             48  26  57  40  51 /   0   5  10  10  60
DENTON, TX            49  29  58  38  53 /   0   5   5  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          47  26  56  40  52 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            51  33  59  40  53 /   0   5  10  10  50
TERRELL, TX           49  27  60  40  51 /   0   5  10  20  60
CORSICANA, TX         51  31  60  37  50 /   0   5  10  30  60
TEMPLE, TX            53  29  61  40  51 /   0   5  10  40  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  27  59  38  58 /   0   5  10  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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