Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1110 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Mid and high level clouds continue to shift their way east across
the state along with the shortwave trough responsible for their
development. There is very little if any in the way of low cloud
development on the back side of the mid level cloud cover, and
the latest guidance seems to have picked up on this. For this
forecast, we have scaled back the development of mvfr cigs at all
locations for Wednesday morning based on recent trends. However,
since the HRRR is still sticking with a low cloud forecast, we
will continue to keep a few hours of MVFR CIGS at all location for
a few hours around sunrise, with VFR thereafter. Otherwise, south
winds around 10 KTs or so will be the norm. As far as any
convection, we will need to keep an eye on the Bonham arrival gate
Wednesday evening where scattered convection may be an issue. The
rest of the forecast area should remain rather quiet.



Current forecast is in good shape and no major changes are needed
at this time. Evening satellite imagery shows high cloud cover
clearing from west to east across the region. These clearing skies
will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s later tonight.
With dewpoints in the lower 60s and light easterly flow...some
patchy fog still seems possible. The threat for more widespread
dense fog seems to be limited by a persistent southeast wind
at 5-10 kt through the boundary layer. This may allow some drier
air to mix in overnight keeping visibilities from tanking. Outside
of the patchy fog other major concerns at this



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

The main concerns for this forecast package revolve around
fog/stratus potential during the overnight hours. In addition,
rain chances return to the forecast for parts of North TX late
Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, mostly dry conditions are
expected with a low chance for thunderstorms early next week.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are forecast through the
entire outlook.

Satellite imagery at this hour revealed that a large veil of
cirrus remained in place across a majority of North and Central
TX. This cirrus shield is associated with a low amplitude trough
that continues to slide eastward through the central portion of
the U.S. In its wake, drier air aloft should result in partial
clearing after midnight.

For tonight---as clearing occurs, low level moisture will be
drawn northward ahead of an approaching cold front currently
sliding southward through portions of Kansas and Nebraska. With
clearing skies and generally light winds, there`s a high enough
potential to include patchy fog into the forecast. Forecast
soundings suggest that this potential will be maximized across an
area characterized by 1-2 degree dewpoint depressions and the most
likely area for fog to occur will be along and south of a Comanche
to Hillsboro to Palestine line. There may be some potential for
patchy dense fog, but I`ll let the evening shift have a closer
look at this possibility. If boundary layer flow is a little
stronger than currently advertised, the aformentioned area may
only experience periods of very low stratus in the morning. The
increase in low level moisture should result in mild overnight

For Wednesday and Thursday---A majority of Wednesday appears to be
dry, though I cannot rule out the potential for some weak convection
along the Red River during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. The better threat for convection appears to be during the
afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday. I`ve introduced some
chance and slight chance PoPs along the Red River and across
northern/northeastern zones. Synoptic models show a shortwave
trough diving southward through the Ark- La-Tex which when
combined with the cold front should provide sufficient lift for
convection. In addition, most hi- resolution model guidance
continues to indicate the chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms, adding a bit more confidence to introduce some low
PoPs into the forecast. In general, the overall severe weather
threat appears low due to marginal amounts of shear and
instability. I won`t rule out a small risk for some small hail and
gusty winds, however. The cold front should lose a majority of its
baroclinicity before lifting northward on Thursday.

For Friday through Monday---the forecast appears dry as the H5
ridge centers itself across the Big Country. Low level moisture
will stream northward and with continued subsidence, temperatures
should warm above normal values. The GFS does push a front south
towards the Red River on Saturday, but the ECMWF keeps this
boundary further to the north. Given how far displaced to the
north the upper air trough is in both model solutions, I`ll side
with the ECMWF output which keeps the front across northern

For Tuesday and beyond---A low chance for rain will return to the
forecast on Tuesday as models advertise good moisture advection
towards the north. Right now, it appears that this convection will
be isolated to widely scattered and I`ll only include a 20 PoP for
southern/southeastern zones at this time. Convection will likely
be diurnally driven, given that a majority of the favorable
dynamics for widespread lift will be located to the north of the



Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  84  64  85  63 /   5  10  20   5   5
Waco                61  85  61  86  61 /   5  10  10   5   5
Paris               58  81  60  84  61 /   5  20  30   5   5
Denton              62  84  61  84  60 /   5  10  20   5   5
McKinney            63  82  62  84  62 /   5  10  20   5   5
Dallas              65  84  64  85  64 /   5  10  20   5   5
Terrell             62  83  63  84  60 /   5  10  20   5   5
Corsicana           62  84  62  85  61 /   5  10  20   5   5
Temple              61  84  61  86  60 /   5  10  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       62  85  61  86  60 /   5  10  20   5   5




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