Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191128 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
628 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017


.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concern---Low MVFR stratus potential at Waco this morning.
Otherwise, none major.

VFR will continue at Metroplex TAF sites over the next 30 hours
as an H5 ridge settles in across the region. A few mid/upper level
clouds will drift towards the southwest. A few pockets of
afternoon VFR CU around FL050 may develop beneath this diffuse
cirrus canopy, but significant impacts to aerodrome operations
are not anticipated.

Farther south towards ACT---satellite imagery revealed that a
thin and ragged plume of MVFR stratus was starting to build.
Current trajectory of this stratus would take it to the north, but
radar-derived wind profiles suggest that it should be deflected
towards the east as flow aloft is veered out of the southwest. In
addition, the July sun should help to lift this deck of stratus
through the morning hours. Regardless, we will monitor trends to
see if a quick amendment for an inclusion of brief MVFR cigs is
necessary this morning at Waco.

The threat for convection appears low at TAF sits this morning
given dry air at mid-levels.

24-Bain

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Early this morning, a few showers had developed across East TX
beneath the southern periphery of the H5 ridge, analyzed to be
across Oklahoma. This activity should wane through the morning
hours with the amount of mid-level dry air invading from the north
and I`ve left only silent 10 PoPs across northeastern/eastern
zones. Examination of the Experimental HRRR and NAM NEST hi-res
output indicates that this activity will also diminish towards
daybreak.

Otherwise, the main weather headline for the next 24 hours will
be the heat and humidity across North and Central TX. Experimental
water vapor imagery shows the H5 ridge quite well and with
increasing subsidence as this feature takes hold across the
region, the threat for precipitation in theory should be near zero
for most areas. The fly in the ointment to the PoP forecast
today, however, could be what appears to be subtle ascent in the
form of mid/upper level clouds sliding southwestward along the
southern periphery of the ridge. The Experimental HRRR does hint
at the potential for afternoon convection north of I-20, but given
the seemingly impressive amount of mid-level dry air as indicated
by current water vapor imagery and forecast soundings, I`ll hedge
towards a drier solution. Radar and satellite trends will need to
be monitored, however, as if a storm does develop, it`ll likely
have the ability to produce strong outflow winds given the hot
boundary layer.

With regards to temperatures today---it should be another hot and
humid day, especially across northeastern and eastern zones.
Across the west and southwest, there should be enough mixing such
that dewpoints fall into the mid to upper 60s. Farther north and east,
however, such deep mixing is unlikely and afternoon dewpoints
will likely only fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. With
afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s, heat
index values will be near 105 in some spots. The isolated nature
of these near 105 degree readings, however, precludes the issuance
of a heat advisory at this time. If dewpoints really struggle to
mix, a short fused advisory may be warranted.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/
/Wednesday through Monday/

With the upper ridge continuing to build across the central and
southern Plains through the end of the week, temperatures will
remain hot and rain chances will remain minimal across North
Texas. The only exception may be in our extreme southeastern
counties each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week
where some very isolated sea breeze activity could sneak in
before evening. Coverage should be less than 10%. Otherwise, the
weather pattern will be rather benign with temperatures creeping
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by Friday and continuing
through the weekend. The main concern through the remainder of the
week will be the humid conditions with dewpoints only mixing into
the upper 60s each afternoon. This will yield heat index values
in the 105 to 107 degree range from Wednesday through the weekend
which would likely require a multi-day heat advisory for much of
the region.


The upper ridge looks like it may retreat back to the west by
early next week as flow over the western U.S. becomes a little
more amplified. This could send a weak front down into the
Arklatex region sometime on Monday and could serve as a focus for
a little better coverage of showers and storms. We`ll keep an eye
on this possibility.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  98  80  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  76  98  77  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
Paris               96  74  95  75  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Denton              98  76  98  77  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            97  75  96  76  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              99  80  98  80  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  76  96  76  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  78  97  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              97  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       98  74  97  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91



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