Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 171752 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING ANY SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A DECAYING MCS FROM OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING MAKING IT INTO THE
METROPLEX IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCLUSION INTO LATER
TAFS IS NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 UTC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES
AND HEATING COMMENCES LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN METROPLEX
TAFS.


MVFR STRATUS AT WACO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 20-21Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED
A VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20-01Z PERIOD. AFTER 01Z...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
AFTER 09Z EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH WITH IFR TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS AND ALSO SOME FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING /AROUND 16Z/.

15/58

&&


.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 1 PM. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE DAYBREAK SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE HAS NEARLY DISPERSED AS OF 10 AM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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