Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200228
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
928 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
KFWS 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF WARM AIR BETWEEN
800 AND 700 MB. THE WARM LAYER ALSO EXTEND MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST
BASED ON HOW STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AS THEY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN. WE DO EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE.
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CIGS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE DFW METRO...
HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS NOT KNOWING HOW STRONG OR
ELEVATED THE CAP WILL BE WITH MODELS ALL DIFFERING ON SCENARIOS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VARYING CIG HEIGHTS...THOUGH A BRIEF
PD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT WACO AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
SE WINDS 8-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S 5-7 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
BY SUNRISE AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IMPULSES FROM MEXICO AND THE
SWRN STATES ACROSS WEST TEXAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME VIRGA BY
EARLY SUNDAY COULD LEND TO A LITTLE TURBULENCE. BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AND THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
BROAD UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN BAJA REGION...WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THEN ACROSS OK/TX BY LATE MONDAY. THIS TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES...WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LEAD IMPULSE...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN FAR WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS
FAR EAST AT THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. WILL FORECAST HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN
THE CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES. MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE AND APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SEEN IN 500-300 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS FROM SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN THE REGION FROM GRAHAM TO GAINESVILLE. A
STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHERE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THESE SEVERE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN DRASTICALLY AS THEY APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING FOR
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE EARLY IN
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING
INSOLATION TO HELP PUSH SURFACE BASED CAPES TO OVER 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA AND AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY...CHANCES FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS AT 40-50
PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TIED TO REGIONS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... AND BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FAVORED REGION FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TEXAS...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 30
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A DRYLINE IN THE AREA COULD LEAD TO AN
EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS.

09/GP



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  77  63  81  61 /  10  30  40  50  30
WACO, TX              59  78  61  81  61 /  10  30  20  40  30
PARIS, TX             57  76  60  76  58 /   5  20  40  50  40
DENTON, TX            59  76  62  78  57 /  20  30  50  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          57  76  62  77  57 /  10  30  40  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  78  64  79  61 /  10  30  40  50  30
TERRELL, TX           59  78  61  79  60 /  10  30  40  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         59  78  61  79  61 /   5  20  30  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            58  76  59  81  61 /  10  30  10  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  76  60  81  57 /  20  40  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79





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