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000
FXUS64 KFWD 180415
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS REMAINS WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY NORTH OF SAN ANGELO WILL LIKELY EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK FRONT...WHICH WOULD KEEP THESE STORMS
WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. FARTHER EAST...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT PRESENT FROM A SECONDARY FRONTAL PUSH TO GENERATE
ISOLATE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THUS FAR... COVERAGE HAS
BEEN SPARSE...BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCSH AT ALL AREA
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL SITES
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE
HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF ANYTHING
THAT ATTEMPTS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE THIS DIRECTION. MOST HI
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN TRACK SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION...BUT WILL NONETHELESS KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECASTS.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW AIRMASS STORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING REACHED A MAXIMUM AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELPED WITH INITIATION.
AREAS THAT SAW RAIN FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS WERE/ARE STILL A BIT
WORKED OVER...AND WITH SUNSET THE AIRMASS IS STABILIZING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED OR DROPPED POPS NORTH OF
I-20. HOWEVER...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
SPONTANEOUSLY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE A MCS IS ORGANIZING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER AND WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
OCCURRING NEAR ABILENE THIS EVENING WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE THE
MCS WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT REACHES THE CWA AS THERE WILL BE A
LARGE AREA OF STABLE AND WORKED OVER AIR THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE TO
PASS THROUGH. THE SW ZONES ARE STILL THE MOST FAVORED AREA TO SEE
A WEAKENING MCS COMPLEX AND HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN THERE.

FOR TOMORROW...RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS A REMNANT
MCV WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE KEYING IN ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION AND LITTLE TO NO
LIFT OR FOCUS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT IS APPROACHING THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT THE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BUT THEY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THESE SAME
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN WEST TEXAS AND MOVING THE COMPLEX EAST AND/OR
SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE
MOVEMENT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE MCS IS ALSO MORE
LIKELY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF BY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THESE TWO FACTORS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE MCS WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT
COULD AFFECT SOME OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE MCS THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TOMORROW...AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. IF THIS
HAPPENS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MORE CHANCE FOR AN
MCS TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. AFTER THAT...THE RAIN SHUTS OFF THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE STATE.
SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE POPS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL VARY BASED ON WHEN AND
WHERE IT RAINS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING OR REACHING 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  90  75  91  75 /  20  30  20  30  10
WACO, TX              75  92  74  93  76 /  30  40  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             70  87  72  87  72 /  10  20  30  40  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  73  90  74 /  10  20  30  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  89  73  89  73 /  10  20  30  40  10
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  91  77 /  20  30  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           74  91  75  90  75 /  20  30  20  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  91  75  92  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  91  73  93  74 /  30  30  20  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92