Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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962
FXUS64 KFWD 251429
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
929 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Satellite and RADAR data this morning indicate that the shear
axis over East TX and LA continues to trudge west towards the
area. Another weak piece of energy appears to be rotating around
the east flank of an upper ridge (currently centered over the
4-corners) and approaching from Oklahoma. Abundant moisture and
modest upper support in place today should be sufficient for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

A limiting factor may be the swath of mid level cloud cover which
moved in from the east associated with the increase in deep Gulf
moisture. With convective temperatures clustered in the mid 90s,
it may take a little longer for development. However, a quick
glance at model soundings shows that all CIN erodes by noon, so
even if a delay in insolation occurs we should still see
development this afternoon. For this update, we made some minor
adjustments in POPs this afternoon based on the latest guidance,
but overall the forecast is in good shape.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

No major changes to the previous TAF forecast based on the latest
model guidance. A weak upper trough will spread westward into
Texas today allowing for an increase in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. A healthy surge of moisture will accompany the
trough and with the dominant upper ridge now centered west of the
region...we will likely see a scattering of afternoon summertime
thunderstorms. Highest chances will be east and south of the major
airports through late afternoon...however all areas will have some
chance for thunderstorms. Timing for prevsurge ofailing TS is a
little too uncertain as there are already some spotty showers
developing this morning to the east. For now...will continue with
the VCTS during the mid/late afternoon hours at all sites...with
the thinking that later amendments can pin down a little better
timing.

Activity should diminish this evening with the loss of
heating...although the upper trough may provide enough support for
some spotty activity well into the nighttime hours. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

Dunn


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
The weather story across North Central Texas this week will be
driven by the breakdown of the large ridge over the central and
western U.S., coupled with a persistent weakness in the mid-
level heights across the Lone Star State. With elevated deep
layer moisture and instability, cloudiness and scattered
thunderstorm activity will affect much of the area through Friday.
While folks shouldn`t expect a washout this week, many locations
will pick up at least a token amount of rainfall, and daytime
temperatures will be held to near normal - or slightly below
normal - levels for late July.

Convection is still expected to ramp up across much of North
Central Texas today, in association with the westward-moving mid-
level shear axis currently located over Louisiana. Though some
spread exists, the various short-term model solutions still
suggest at least scattered thunderstorm activity breaking out
mainly along and east of I-35 by mid/late afternoon. Kept PoPs
pretty close to the previous package, but am not quite as
confident about areal coverage. This is primarily due to
uncertainty about how truly effective the inverted trough will be
in initiating numerous clusters of storms late today. Precipitable
water values will approach 2 standard deviations above normal in
our eastern counties by afternoon, so any slow moving storms that
do develop could produce some isolated flash flooding concerns.

Tuesday, there seems to be a consensus among the guidance
solutions that the best upper support for convection will be
displaced across our southern zones, so have maintained the higher
PoPs across these areas. Given that the rest of North Texas will
remain in the front flank of an inverted trough axis draped across
the Lower Mississippi Valley, at least 20-30% PoPs are warranted
elsewhere Tuesday. A similar setup will exist on Wednesday, and
have kept a corresponding north-south gradation of 20 to 40% PoPs
on this day as well.

A notable weakness in the mid level height field will continue
over North Texas into Thursday and Friday, and to an extent
through the weekend as well.  It sounds like a broken record, but
given the continued presence of instability and the absence of
ridge-induced subsidence, will hold onto chance PoPs through
Friday. It appears the main threat of convection over the weekend
will be confined to the north and/or northeastern-most counties,
in closer proximity to any transient shortwaves in the Central
Plains. Small PoPs will suffice in the Red River counties through
Sunday, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Aside from the potential for some modestly wetting rains -
particularly in the drier northeastern counties - the absence of major
ridging this week will restrain daytime temperatures from reaching
the century mark. For late July, this is certainly welcome news.

Bradshaw



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  96  78  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
Waco                97  75  95  75  94 /  50  30  40  20  40
Paris               95  75  95  75  94 /  50  20  30  10  30
Denton              96  76  94  76  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
McKinney            95  76  94  76  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
Dallas              96  79  95  79  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
Terrell             95  76  94  76  94 /  50  20  30  10  30
Corsicana           95  76  94  75  93 /  50  30  40  20  30
Temple              96  75  94  75  92 /  50  30  50  30  40
Mineral Wells       96  74  95  75  96 /  30  20  30  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

05/30



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