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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221621 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500 MB AND THE BEST
LIFT STAYS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL EVALUATE THIS
MORNING/S MODEL RUNS FOR MORE INSIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO
OUR EAST. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK SLOWLY WEST...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE METRO-AREA TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. IT IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR VISIBILITY
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z AT DAL AND DFW BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. MEANWHILE WACO HAS ALREADY BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN 4SM AND
A QUARTER OF A MILE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
KACT TAF. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING.   30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  64  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              87  67  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             82  63  85  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  87  70  84 /   5  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          85  64  88  71  85 /  10  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            88  65  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           86  66  90  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  90  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  91  70  87 /   5  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75