Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291134 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MINOR CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED TSRA TODAY...OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS
EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. SCATTERED
CU AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED TODAY. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL
OCCUR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WAS TRIGGERING ELEVATED AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAD
WEAKENED THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE...AND AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY S OF I-20
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE MORE RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR WACO AND WILL
ADVERTISE VCSH FOR THAT AIRPORT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
MENTION AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED FOR A FEW DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME MID WEEK...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINING
UNCHANGED AS IT REMAINS IN PLACE. LATE THIS WEEK...DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND PER THE GFS OR IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME NEXT WEEKEND PER THE ECMWF.

THE WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S SOUTH OF I-20. TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AND HAVE ADDED POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND POOLED SURFACE MOISTURE DRIFTS NORTH DURING
THE DAY.

WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY REMAINING AVAILABLE...LOW CHANCE CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SMALL POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES INTO
PLAY FOR THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20/I-30 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
SPREAD THE LOW CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND AREA WIDE FOR JULY
4TH AND SUNDAY.

AREA TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL NEAR NORMAL WHICH IS 73F & 94F
FOR BOTH DFW AND WACO. ONLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND COOL OUTFLOW
WILL HAVE ANY AFFECT ON THE EXPECTED MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK.      75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  73  92  73  93 /  20  10  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  74  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            94  77  94  77  96 /  20  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         92  73  92  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  72  91  72  93 /  20  20  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  71  94  70  96 /  20  20  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75


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