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000
FXUS64 KFWD 162321
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LAST NIGHT
CAN BE SEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS...PLACING MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS IN A ZONE OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS RATHER QUIET TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER COUNTIES TO OUR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE SOARED TO TRIPLE DIGITS AND GOOD INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE
WESTERN OR SOUTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

CEILINGS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE LIFTED TO VFR BUT WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE LOW END OF MVFR BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT
FOG/MIST MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 SM DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8-12KTS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LEAVING EASTERN OKLAHOMA HEADING FOR THE
MISSOURI BOOT HEEL. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
ALSO HEADING EAST AND THE NORTHEAST RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EAST TX.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES...AND THE DRY LINE SITTING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...HAVE ADDED A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. HI RES MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW TO ADD A BIT OF LIFT...ALTHOUGH VERY
LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED DOWN THERE SO FAR.

WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH DRY
LINE STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST...AND
SUNDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE NEW UPPER LOW ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES AS
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND THE DRY LINE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EACH DAY. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
NEXT WEEK TO COVER THIS PATTERN. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES SO LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS FORECAST. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  71  90  70 /  10   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              71  92  71  91  70 /  10  10   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  81  69  86  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  84  70  91  70 /  10   5  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  84  69  89  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            70  89  71  92  70 /  10   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           69  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  91  70  90  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  91  70  90  69 /  10  10   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  92  70  94  69 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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