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000
FXUS64 KFWD 141718 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL AIRPORT SITES BETWEEN 0800-0900 UTC (3-4
AM CDT). ONCE THE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT THINKING ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MEXICAN
SYSTEM. THE RESULTING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY AFFECT WACO /KACT/ BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH IN THE METROPLEX. WILL COVER THIS
SCENARIO WITH VCTS AT THE METRO TAF SITES BEGINNING MID MORNING.
FOR WACO...WILL FORECAST A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS/VCSH AND SOME
CATEGORICAL SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. /09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA...OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. OVERALL...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A
CAP OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH ONLY SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO AID IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN A BIT UNSETTLED SATURDAY
THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
THE GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR OR WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH MONDAY AND
DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNTIL TUESDAY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE SOME SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED DRY LINE...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CAP. WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BASED
ON THE GFS TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP
POPS LOW DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  67  80  66  81 /   5  30  50  40  10
WACO, TX              88  67  81  68  83 /  10  40  50  20  10
PARIS, TX             85  61  76  61  77 /   0  20  60  40  20
DENTON, TX            88  69  80  68  81 /   5  30  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          86  65  79  65  79 /   5  30  50  40  20
DALLAS, TX            89  67  81  66  82 /   5  30  50  40  10
TERRELL, TX           86  64  79  63  80 /   5  30  60  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  64  79  65  81 /   5  30  60  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            87  66  80  67  82 /  10  40  50  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  65  81  66  84 /   5  30  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$