Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 132051
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
351 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 111 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/
/Today through Friday Morning/

Skies continue to clear out across the region, with western North
Texas completely sunny. There remains a very conditional chance
for storms this afternoon, mainly across North Texas, where cloud
cover is less. Most guidance continues to keep us capped through
the afternoon hours, with a warm nose around 850mb on forecast
soundings across different CAMs. However, if we are able to warm
enough to overtake the cap, then steep lapse rates, efficient deep
layer shear, and abundant instability will allow for the potential
for severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.
Current ACARS soundings over DFW show a stout cap still in place
as of ~1PM so this will need to bear vigilance through the
afternoon out west.

Otherwise, expect another warm and breezy day with highs in the
70s and 80s. Falling heights across the western half of the state
and a surface low tracking across the Oklahoma/Kansas border will
keep wind speeds breezy this afternoon and evening.

The upper level trough and closed low center will continue to dig
southward towards the SW CONUS over the day on Thursday,
ultimately putting North and Central Texas in a favorable zone for
unsettled weather. A shortwave disturbance will eject out of the
main "parent" trough early Thursday, sending a cold front
southward through the Central Plains. The dryline will remain on
the western edge of our Big Country counties over the early
portion of Thursday, keeping the majority of the region well
within the warm/moist sector. Over the early afternoon hours, the
dryline will transit eastward, eventually landing near US-281.
Persisting southerly flow at the surface and low levels will
promote warm temperatures, but cloudy skies will temper solar
heating.

Forecast uncertainty really comes into play with convective
initiation timing. Early Thursday showers and storms remain
conditional once again as most guidance keeps areas east of the
dryline capped by an elevated inversion. The more bullish of CAMs,
however, has the potential for convection to bubble earlier in the
afternoon. If this scenario plays out and we are able to overcome
the cap early in the day, all modes of severe weather would be
possible. Initial storm timing will remain quite uncertain until
we see just how stout the inversion is with the 12Z/7AM FWD
sounding tomorrow morning. We`ll continue to keep watch over
incoming guidance to see if there are any changes. By mid-late
afternoon, we should be able to finally break the cap, if we had
not already earlier in the day. Scattered surface-based showers
and storms will blossom generally along and ahead of the dryline
and move northeast across the region. The environment will be
primed and ready for strong to severe storms, capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado.

The majority of the dryline-induced convection should exit the
region late Thursday night though the potential for showers and
storms will continue. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front
will have reached our northwest counties at this time. This front
will continue to move south through North Texas overnight into
Friday morning as its upper support moves east with the main flow.
Well to our west, the closed low will have split from the main
trough and amplified into a cut-off low over the Desert Southwest.
Disturbances will transit around the periphery of the low,
allowing for continued unsettled weather across North and Central
Texas. Going into Friday morning: additional areas of convective
development are expected along the front as it passes through, and
across Central Texas as a shortwave moves overhead Friday
morning. The potential for severe storms will continue to exist,
with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

Unsettled weather will persist through the upcoming weekend but
with more seasonal temperatures. After a brief rain-free period
early next week, another round of spring thunderstorms is expected
during the middle of the upcoming week.

Storms will likely be ongoing Friday morning along an advancing
cold front. Embedded cells may pose a wind threat, but the greater
chance for severe storms will be during the afternoon hours as the
front stalls near our southeastern frontier. Cloud cover and a
rain-cooled boundary layer may temper the threat, but buoyant
warm-sector parcels may still be present at peak heating Friday
afternoon. In addition, parcels riding up the frontal slope
beneath steep lapse rates may yield some postfrontal hail cores.
Downpours in areas that saw similarly intense precipitation on
Thursday may reaggravate flooding issues. The flood concern may
recur Saturday afternoon as another disturbance rides atop the
stalled boundary. Although the greater rain chances will be within
Central Texas both Friday and Saturday, showers and storms will
be possible as far north as the Oklahoma border.

A remarkably persistent cut-off low will remain above the Desert
Southwest early next week. Downstream ridging will begin to take
hold above the Lone Star State on Sunday, steadily reducing rain
chances. The entire region finally dries out Monday and Tuesday.
Seasonally cool temperatures will prevail even after south winds
return on Tuesday. A storm system will invade the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday, dislodging the rex block in the West and
sending the Desert Southwest low toward the Southern Plains. This
will return storm chances to North and Central Texas during the
middle of the upcoming week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 111 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Stratus continues to erode across the TAF sites early this
afternoon. D10 has scattered out as of 18Z. ACT will remain more
entrenched within the cloud cover, not improving until around 20Z.
Southerly winds will increase over the afternoon hours to around
15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible.

Another round of MVFR stratus is expected to move in overnight,
around 5Z at ACT and 7Z at D10. Like the days before, MVFR cigs
should stick around until the early afternoon hours before
scattering out around 19Z.

Potential for thunderstorms increases at the TAF sites over the
late afternoon, and have introduced VCTS at KDFW at 21Z tomorrow.
There is a low probability storms could start earlier in the
afternoon, but too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  79  59  69  55 /  20  70  70  70  30
Waco                68  78  63  70  57 /  10  60  60  90  30
Paris               66  80  60  69  52 /  20  80  80  40  30
Denton              64  78  55  67  50 /  10  60  50  60  20
McKinney            65  78  58  69  52 /  20  80  70  60  30
Dallas              68  79  60  69  55 /  20  80  70  70  30
Terrell             67  79  60  70  55 /  20  80  80  70  40
Corsicana           69  81  65  74  58 /  20  70  80  80  40
Temple              67  79  63  74  57 /   5  60  50  90  30
Mineral Wells       63  80  55  67  51 /  10  40  50  70  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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