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000
FXUS64 KFWD 121610 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
A STRONG SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS...IS SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN
AS THEY APPROACH THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL LINE INCLUDING THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
DFW TAF.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY
SUNRISE. THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE REGION. THE GULF
WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOSED OFF THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RESULTS IN SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE CUT OFF
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE LIFTING CLOSED
LOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON
THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE DRY LINE MAY BECOME A PLAYER ON THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OVERALL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  58  86  62  85 /   5   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              80  52  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             75  51  81  57  83 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  55  87  61  84 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  51  84  58  83 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            80  59  85  63  84 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           78  54  82  59  83 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         79  55  83  61  81 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            80  53  83  61  82 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  53  86  61  85 /   5   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58