000
FXUS64 KFWD 171430 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
930 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40
MPH MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BUT OTHERWISE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR...TEMP...SKY
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO DECREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR NOW AND WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AGAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WE ARE STILL WORKING TO EVALUATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TRENDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALREADY
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS ON PRECIP EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND
NOW THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ALSO
EFFECT TRENDS. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING ANOTHER UPDATE BY MIDDAY
AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AND EVALUATING THE 12Z/LATEST MODEL
DATA.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  77  92  75  95 / 100  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              91  75  93  74  94 /  40  20  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             89  73  87  72  88 / 100  30  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            91  75  92  73  94 / 100  30  40  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  73  90  73  92 / 100  30  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            92  77  92  76  93 / 100  30  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           91  75  91  73  92 / 100  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         91  74  91  74  92 / 100  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  72  92  71  95 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82