000
FXUS64 KFWD 170441
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND NOW IS LOCATED FROM KANSAS TRAILING BACK
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR/3KM WRF ARE 2 MODELS SHOWING
THIS HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO ARRIVE AROUND 11Z INTO THE
METROPLEX...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED/DECAYING STATE. NONETHELESS THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS THE PROBABILITY THAT THIS MCS WILL MAKE IT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW VCTS IN TAFS FROM 11-14Z AND ALSO INDICATE A WIND
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS. BY MID MORNING
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AND WINDS SHOULD RETURN BACK
TO THE SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE MCS THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
MAY REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH OKLAHOMA...AND A NEGLIGIBLE LLJ WILL LIMIT ITS
MOTION/EXPANSION SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES HUGGING OKLAHOMA.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
A LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON TODAY VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE
OLD UPPER TROUGH NOW LONG GONE AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXPANDED
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TX. THOUGH A ROGUE ISOLATED STRONG
STORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES
WILL LIKELY COME LATER TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES WILL MOVE ESE TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW STORMS WERE ALREADY POPPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR/ARW-EAST/TEXAS TECH WRF MODELS ALL SHOW
CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS OVER NW OK INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN A
WEST-EAST LINE THIS EVENING...THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RED
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. TIMING THE LINEAR MCS TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER AS THE HRRR IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO
MODELS IN BRINGING ACTIVITY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERING
WHERE THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING AT THE MOMENT...WILL GO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING MOSTLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
POPS WILL VARY FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREA
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE LINEAR MCS
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE VEERING/WEAKENING OF A 30-35KT NOCTURNAL
LLJ NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BECOMES A
BIT MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AND
CENTRAL TX AND WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. HAVE LINGERED BEST CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE WEAKENING COMPLEX AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS. LOW CHANCES LOOK PRUDENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR ANY OUTFLOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
FROM WEST TX AND WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HITS
THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
TOWARD OUR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE PM HOURS ONCE AGAIN. FEEL THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP AREAS FROM WACO AND ATHENS SOUTHWARD MAINLY
CAPPED AND DRY...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT OVER OUR CENTRAL TX COUNTIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. HAVE LINGERED LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA
WHERE SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL BE
WANING BY THEN ON RAIN CHANCES. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/HOT WEATHER
TAKE HOLD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100 BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  93  75  89  75 /  20  20  30  30  20
WACO, TX              75  95  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  72  87  71 /  40  50  20  40  40
DENTON, TX            76  91  73  88  73 /  30  30  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          75  92  72  88  72 /  30  30  20  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  94  75  89  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           75  93  74  89  73 /  20  20  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  74  91  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  96  73  93  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  73  89  71 /  20  20  40  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /