000
FXUS64 KFWD 160442
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS. MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY HEAD OFF TO THE EAST WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION AROUND SUNRISE WITH A COUPLE OF THE MODELS
SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL. THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE BUOYANT AIR
ACROSS EAST TEXAS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WHAT REMNANTS PERSIST ARE BEING USHERED OUT OF THE CWA BY THE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
HAS BEEN ABSORBED IN THE EASTERLIES AND THE LOWEST 15KFT HAVE
DRIED OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING ACTIVITY...THE DISTURBED
WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS HAS LEFT WEAK TROUGHINESS IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE AND THE MOIST MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC...BUT A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY 20 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PICK UP FORWARD SPEED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. A FEW
HEAVIER CELLS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
POSSIBLY PEA HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METRO THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT SEVERE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEAST... BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THETA-E
LAPSE RATES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PER HIGH
RES MODELS DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT. EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
WILL BE THE RESULT. STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN STEADY TO THE NNE AT
20-25 KTS...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME BRIEF
MINOR STREET FLOODING WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN VERY LOW...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS
THESE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY LIKE TODAY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AT SUNSET.

AN MCS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS OK/KS SUN NIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH A
FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF DRIFT
THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS I-20...WHILE THE GFS IS NOT SO
BULLISH. HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE THIS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT. WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND JET FORCING REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL
DRIVEN AND SUB SEVERE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG HEATING. YOU CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN AND
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK. ENHANCED TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S THURS/FRI/SAT. HUMIDITY
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
IF SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CAN OCCUR. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  77  94  74 /  20  20   5  30  30
WACO, TX              74  94  75  95  74 /  20  20   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  72 /  20  10  10  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  92  71 /  20  20  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            77  94  77  94  75 /  20  20   5  30  30
TERRELL, TX           75  93  74  92  73 /  20  20  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  93  75  93  73 /  20  20   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  94  73  94  72 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /