000
FXUS64 KFWD 141609 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED 10 POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH MILLS AND LAMPASAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SATURDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

A WEAK BUT LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR DEL RIO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AREA AIRPORTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TX TODAY AND
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR AREA TAF SITES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
EXPLICITLY FORECASTS THOUGH. MORNING RUNS OF THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
INDICATE THAT WE HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO CAP REMAINING FOR STORMS
OVER THE DFW AREA AND WACO BY 23Z. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL GET
STORMS...HOWEVER ANY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SOME /SURPRISE/ SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR OR ON TOP
OF AREA AIRPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CHANCES OF THIS ARE TOO LOW TO DO ANYTHING BUT MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTH TX. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
OCCUR AFTER 18Z AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.         CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING SOME MUCH NEED RAIN TO
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHILE A WEAK CLOSED LOW...
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND...OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL RESULT EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. THERE WILL BE MODERATE STEERING FLOW SO
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL END.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EASTWARD
MOVING UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE RED RIVER ON
MONDAY AND STALL OVER NORTH TEXAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND GFS ARE STARTING TO COME IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY BASED ON THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
REGION AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION BASED ON THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN WARMER AND RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS.

AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HOTTER TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SUNDAY
DUE TO MORE SUN AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED PRECIP. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE
NORTH TO THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S.      79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  77  97 /   0   5  30  10  10
WACO, TX              96  75  95  75  95 /   0   5  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             97  74  92  73  93 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  74  94  75  96 /   0   5  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  93  73  94 /   0   5  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            98  78  95  77  95 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           97  76  94  74  94 /   0   5  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  93  75  93 /   0   5  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  93  74  93 /   5   5  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  74  94  72  95 /   5  10  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75