000
FXUS64 KFWD 142050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS MAKING MINIMAL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BUT IT HAS EJECTED A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
ENERGY TOWARD WEST TEXAS...RESULTING IN A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRANS PECOS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SIERRA MADRE
AND ENTER SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WOULD TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE ACTIVITY WOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE CONVECTION ARRIVES EARLY IN THE
DAY...THIS MAY REDUCE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED. THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO
INITIATE WITHIN (OR ADVECT INTO) OUR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IF THE CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ACROSS
THE LONE STAR STATE...IT WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE RESULTING
FEATURE WOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY...BUT SOME
CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THURSDAY. MEDIAN RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH OR LESS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND AN INCH LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES. FOR AREAS WHERE HEAVY CONVECTIVE CELLS OCCUR...
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY...WHEN DRYLINE ACTIVITY
IMPINGES ON WESTERN ZONES. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PASS
TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BE NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS ANTICIPATED...
THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS PUSHING THE FRONT DEEP INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY WITH THE HELP OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE SPOKE. SUCH SUB-
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE RARELY WELL RESOLVED THIS MANY DAYS IN
ADVANCE. CONSIDERING THE ECMWF CONTINUES NORTHERLY/EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO FOR
LATE MAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  67  80  66  81 /   5  30  50  40  10
WACO, TX              88  67  81  68  83 /  10  40  50  20  10
PARIS, TX             85  61  76  61  77 /   0  20  60  40  20
DENTON, TX            88  69  80  68  81 /   5  30  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          86  65  79  65  79 /   5  30  50  40  20
DALLAS, TX            89  67  81  66  82 /   5  30  50  40  10
TERRELL, TX           86  64  79  63  80 /   5  30  60  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  64  79  65  81 /   5  30  60  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            87  66  80  67  82 /  10  40  50  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  65  81  66  84 /   5  30  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25