Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS STILL
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE H5 RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WICHITA
FALLS AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S...AND LOW 80S ACROSS URBAN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CUMULIFORM CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD AT THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE BUILDING H5 RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND UP TO THE 101-102
DEGREE MARK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL
DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES...FEEL THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35/35E CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING...AND DRYING DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS EAST
OF THE I-35/35E CORRIDOR DO NOT APPEAR TO MIX QUITE AS DEEPLY AND
THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S. THAT BEING SAID...DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 100-103 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
WE SHOULD LOSE A BIT OF THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING OF THE
COLUMN DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBSIDENCE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR
MOVES NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
AREAS ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR MONDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR MOST SITES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
DIURNAL MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. A FEW
MORNING HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ANVIL
FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INFILTRATE THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE MAX IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...MOST MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS AND A
RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT SHOULD OCCUR AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BENEATH THE WESTWARD BUILDING H5 RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100-101 DEGREE RANGE.


ON THURSDAY...THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND COOLS/MOISTENS THE COLUMN.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MOST GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE INHERITED BROAD-
BRUSH POPS...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED BY A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
90S...EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND
SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP CHANCES.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST SITES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NO CIG OR VIS LIMITATIONS OF ANY SORT ARE
EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...AVERAGING 8-12KTS AT ALL SITES.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              75  99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  99  75  98  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            75 100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  99  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  81 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           75  99  76  98  76 /   0   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77  98  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/15


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