Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 252348 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
The scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon will decrease in areal coverage after sunset. Have just
left a TEMPO -shra in the Metroplex TAF sites through 01z. For
Waco have placed 6sm -shra and vcts through 02z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Tuesday after 17z.
For now have just placed VCSH in the Metroplex TAFs from 20z to
00z and VCTS in the Waco TAF from 19z to 00z. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions with east to southeast winds
5 to 10 knots.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
A large swath of deep Gulf moisture has invaded North and Central
Texas today in response to a slow-moving inverted trough which has
finally worked its way in from the east. This is all occurring as
an upper level ridge which brought the triple digit heat over the
weekend retrogrades westward into the 4-corners region. With the
shear axis aloft and a moist and unstable airmass now in place,
the ingredients for diurnal convection will come together each
day across the forecast area for most of this week.

A deck of mid level clouds which moved overhead this morning
prolonged the onset of storms today (compared to what earlier
guidance indicated), but once the mid 90s convective temps were
reached we have seen scattered convection bubbling across the
region. We should continue to see a gradual increase in coverage
through late afternoon, before the peak heating hours wane and
storms taper off. One concern with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and possible flooding due to the high moisture
environment in place and slow southwest cell motion. Fortunately,
it appears that the flood threat would remain isolated due to
the scattered and pulse nature of the thunderstorm activity. An
additional concern will be downburst winds as occasionally intense
cores collapse on themselves. An isolated damaging wind threat
cannot be ruled out, though the vast majority of this afternoon`s
storms should remain sub-severe.

Convection will begin to wane this evening with the loss of
surface heating, and any activity during the overnight hours
should remain isolated in nature. Warm and humid conditions will
prevail overnight with above-normal low temperatures expected.
With high dewpoints and light winds, air quality will become an
issue during the day on Tuesday. The TCEQ has gone ahead and
issued an Ozone Action Day for the Metroplex for Tuesday. Showers
and storms should begin to develop again during the afternoon
hours with brief heavy rain and gusty winds being the main
concern. Convection will be scattered in nature, and any flooding
threat should be limited to small lines or clusters in the
vicinity of outflow mergers.

Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the end
of the work week with primarily diurnally driven convection
expected each day. Activity should remain scattered and POPs will
generally range from 30 to 50 percent. By Saturday, the upper
level ridge to our west will begin to once again expand eastward
into the Southern Plains. Low POPs will be kept across the eastern
half of the forecast area over the weekend before hot and dry
weather returns area-wide early next week.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Waco                77  95  76  95  78 /  30  40  20  40  20
Paris               76  95  76  94  75 /  20  30  10  30  20
Denton              75  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
McKinney            76  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dallas              80  96  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Terrell             76  95  76  94  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Corsicana           77  95  76  94  76 /  30  40  20  40  20
Temple              76  94  74  94  76 /  30  50  20  40  20
Mineral Wells       75  95  75  96  76 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/90



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.