Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 142043
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Afternoon satellite imagery shows some clearing in the wake of
earlier morning convection across a good portion of North Texas
with the exception of a narrow band of thicker mid level cloud
cover right across the central part of the CWA. This is associated
with a narrow ribbon of much higher 800-700mb RH that is streaming
across the area from the west. At the surface, temperatures have
warmed into the mid 90s where the sun has come out and remain in
the mid to upper 80s under thicker cloud cover. There still
remains an area of localized stronger surface convergence from
near Abilene eastward to Mineral Wells. Over the last couple of
hours, there has been an uptick in convective activity, likely
aided by some weak forcing aloft in the westerly flow. Much of
this activity is expected to remain across the far western
counties and we`ll keep some 20% PoPs out there through the late
evening. Otherwise, skies should be partly cloudy overnight will
generally low rain chances.

On Tuesday, we will have a little more influence from shortwave
ridging as a trough deepens over the western U.S. This will result
in strengthening southerly flow and likely will limit rain chances
to 10% or less across the region. Tomorrow night, as the upper
forcing spreads into west Texas, a complex of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Panhandle southward.
This complex will likely move northeast with time and may impact
some of our areas west of I-35, particularly our northwest
counties. The upper flow won`t be quite as favorable for the
complex of storms to move across the entire area.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

A somewhat unsettled flow will continue for our area mid week as
a broad trough sits over the western CONUS and a series of
impulses move overhead in southwest flow. Will likely see some
lingering rain/storms to start off the day Wednesday and
additional storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
with higher chances over our northern counties. Temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday will be near seasonal norms for highs and
slightly warmer for lows due to the expected overnight cloud
cover.

By Thursday, the upper ridge that has been parked over the
Southeast U.S. should begin shifting westward...far enough to
notice a drop in rain chances and an increase in temperatures
across North and Central Texas for the end of the work week into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across North Texas this afternoon as most
of the precipitation has moved off to the east of the area. There
is still a broad area of low level moisture convergence right
along the I-20 corridor and satellite imagery is showing a little
better cumulus field right along this area of convergence. While
widespread additional precipitation is not expected at this time,
the atmosphere has recovered sufficiently for at least some
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm through late evening.
We`ll leave any precip mention out of the current TAF as chances
are generally less than 20%. Southerly winds will prevail through
the period at 10-15 kt. Later tonight, there may be some brief
MVFR cigs across the region. We`ll TEMPO a few hours at Waco to
account for slightly higher probabilities of this across central
TX. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  98  79  96  80 /  10   5  10  10  20
Waco                78  99  79  98  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
Paris               74  91  75  91  76 /  20  10  10  10  30
Denton              77  97  78  95  78 /  20   5  10  20  20
McKinney            77  96  78  94  78 /  20   5  10  10  20
Dallas              79  98  80  96  80 /  10   5  10  10  20
Terrell             77  96  78  95  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
Corsicana           77  98  78  96  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
Temple              76  98  78  98  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       76  97  76  96  76 /  10   5  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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