Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251955
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Monday Night/

Spotty showers, with only an occasional CG strike, are ongoing
across portions of our Central Texas Counties this afternoon within
an axis of maximized low-level theta-e air. While convective
inhibition is effectively nil, moist adiabatic lapse rates atop the
soupy sub-850 mb air are only facilitating MLCAPE values either side
of 1000 J/kg across the southern half of our CWA. This, combined
with little large-scale forcing for ascent means scattered showers
and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be the norm through the
early evening hours across Central Texas. We should see activity
dwindle gradually with the loss of daytime heating tonight, but
we`ll maintain low PoPs across the south overnight within the moist
axis. There is also a potential for some patchy visibility
reductions to accompany surging low stratus late tonight across our
southern and western-most counties, but confidence in this was too
low to introduce a mention into the worded forecast at this time.

Vigorous convection is expected to blossom this afternoon/evening
across the high terrain of New Mexico, and should organize into an
(initially) eastward-advancing MCS. As upscale growth and cold pool
amalgamation occur, this system should then begin to favor a
southeasterly, or even southerly direction into the burgeoning low-
level jet. In addition, with such weak sub-3km flow present across
our region, it appears unlikely we`d see impacts from this overnight
system outside of some additional convective anvil blow off. This
system`s associated mid-level vorticity maximum may, however,
provide the impetus to spark off isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the southwestern 2/3rds of the region on Monday afternoon.
Outside of some brief gusty winds, strong or severe storms are not
anticipated at this time. Convective chances will then wane Monday
evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Carlaw


&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Northwest flow aloft will begin to dampen and shift east-northeast
of the area by Wednesday, as the Southwest CONUS upper high
begins to build eastward across West Texas. A shortwave over
Central Texas Tuesday will sink very slowly south, but be enough
to drum up subtle lift with increasing Gulf moisture from
southeast winds 10-15 mph. Isolated showers and storms along the
I-20 corridor will be more scattered in coverage across our
Central Texas counties where better lift and moisture will reside.
Both surface-based instability and lapse rates aloft on the order
of 6-6.5 deg C/km may be enough for a strong storm or two south
of I-20, but weak flow aloft and mid level shear will keep storm
organization subdued for any severe weather threat. By Wednesday,
lee- cyclogenesis deepens over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas and
will result in increasing south breezes and richer low level
moisture. However, increased ridging aloft will confine better
column moisture over South-Central and Southeast Texas. I will
carry slight chances across our far southeast counties where a
potential seabreeze could result in a isolated convection late in
the day. Otherwise, increasing subsidence will result in highs
warming into the lower-mid 90s. Heat index values will start to
approach 100 degrees as well.

For Thursday and Friday, the main center of the upper high will
remain confined to West Texas and across Northern Mexico with a
weakness (possibly from an upper level TUTT feature over the
Western Gulf of Mexico) across much of our area. The richer column
moisture will remain mostly confined to Southeast Texas into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley each day. That said, diurnal
seabreeze activity could reach our far southeastern counties each
afternoon.

The upper ridge will continue to expand across the area moving
into next weekend, making the first weekend of July, well, feel
like early July with plenty of heat and humidity with continued
strong southerly breezes. The main storm track should remain well
north through east of our area with the polar jet stream remaining
well north of the area. We should remain capped enough that any
nocturnal MCS intrusion across the Red River would likely weaken
and die off pretty quickly after sunrise, providing the northern
counties with a little more cloud cover. Enjoy any rain chances
this next week, as they look to dwindle quite a bit just in time
for outdoor July 4th celebrations.

05/

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/
VFR prevails at the Metroplex sites early this afternoon, and Waco
will be following suit over the next few hours. We should see
additional isolated to scattered showers bubble with the heating
of the afternoon across Central Texas, and will prevail a mention
of VCSH in the Waco TAF to account for this potential into the
early evening. While we can`t rule out a stray lightning strike or
two with this activity, instability and lift appear insufficient
to warrant a mention of thunder at this time. Easterly surface
winds around 8 to 12 kts today will slowly continue to veer around
to favor a more southeasterly direction through the afternoon and
evening hours.

Moisture will then begin to slosh back towards the north and west
overnight, and this may allow low cigs to build up along and west
of the I-35 corridor towards daybreak on Monday. Opted to
introduce MVFR cigs within a TEMPO group for all sites except
KDAL. Cigs will then diurnally lift through the mid-late morning
hours. A large thunderstorm complex is expected to be ongoing
across West Texas Monday morning, but this will likely be diving
towards the south, away from area TAF sites. Afternoon popcorn
convection may then get going across the region, but convective
coverage appears far too low to warrant VCTS at any sites at this
time.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
Waco                71  88  69  89  72 /  30  30  20  20  10
Paris               65  87  67  88  70 /   5  10   5   5  10
Denton              68  88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
McKinney            67  88  68  89  71 /   5  10  10  10  10
Dallas              72  89  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
Terrell             68  89  69  90  71 /   5  10  10  10  10
Corsicana           70  88  71  89  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
Temple              70  86  69  87  70 /  40  30  20  30  10
Mineral Wells       68  86  68  88  70 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/90


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