Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180258 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT THIS HOUR IT LIES NEAR A LINE FROM EMORY TO
CLEBURNE TO COMANCHE. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL
DEVELOP BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM/THIS WEEKEND/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EASE IT/S WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER
WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
OUR AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT SUPPORT A DEEP FRONTAL SURGE WITH
BETTER COLD ADVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. WE ARE
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S THE
NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH HIGHS WARMING NICELY TO BETWEEN 75 AND
80 DEGREES NORTH AND 80 TO 85 DEGREES SOUTH. THERE IS A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHEARING AND WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS A FASTER CONFLUENT FLOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WE
SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NEGLIGIBLE FORCING EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WITH LIMITED COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WE WONT SEE ANY BIG CHANGES BUT THE SWITCH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR AND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MORE IMPORTANTLY...STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS WILL KEEP
ALL OF OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE
TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES NEXT THURSDAY. THE EURO DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH AND AS A
RESULT SHOWS A SWATH OF QPF IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR CWA. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FLOW MUCH MORE ZONAL AND MAINTAINS A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE
PLAINS. THIS IS WORTH WATCHING AS IT MAY BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY
PRECIP IN THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD SEEMS MINIMAL.

77/STALLEY

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  79  55  77  59 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  81  58  79  57 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  74  51  73  52 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  77  48  77  56 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          53  76  50  76  54 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            59  79  57  77  59 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  79  54  77  55 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  81  57  78  57 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            57  83  60  80  57 /   0   0  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  77  53  78  56 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82




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