000
FXUS64 KFWD 120442
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CROSSED THE RED RIVER ABOUT 8 PM BUT HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN THOUGH A REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON THE KFWS RADAR
APPROACHING A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO MCKINNEY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE ACROSS THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
TEMPORARILY RISING BEHIND THE LEADING FRONTAL LINE.

WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SINCE SUNSET
HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND EVEN SOME
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. SOME HIGH ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
NORTH WINDS USHERED IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT AFTER SUNSET AND WE SHOULD DROP
TO THE MID AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW AREAS
LEFT WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR ANY ONE
SPOT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 80S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES BACK LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND FOR THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AFFECTING NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH SOLUTIONS
ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING EXTREMELY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A BIT...BUT AM NOT GOING WITH ANYTHING TOO HIGH FOR NOW.

WITHOUT GOING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR DAY 6 AND 7...THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKING OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY LINE
WILL BE ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES.

ON A HISTORICAL NOTE...TODAY IS THE 60TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE MAY 11
1953 WACO TORNADO. /IT IS ALSO THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1970 LUBBOCK
TORNADO./ 60 YEARS AGO...114 PEOPLE LOST THEIR LIVES FROM THE WACO
TORNADO AND AN ADDITIONAL 567 WERE INJURED.

FOX



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  79  55  86  62 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              52  80  51  84  60 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  75  50  82  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            51  80  53  87  59 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          51  78  52  84  58 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            57  80  56  85  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           53  77  52  84  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  79  53  82  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  80  53  83  58 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /