000
FXUS64 KFWD 180829
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF
3 AM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
DECATUR TO CLEBURNE. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT...WERE BEING AIDED BY LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT REGION. ALL STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
OF DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ALONG WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.

STORM CHANCES WILL END LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. ALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WESTERN ZONES.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  74  94  75  95 /  30  20  30  10   0
WACO, TX              93  71  93  73  93 /  40  30  20  10   0
PARIS, TX             89  69  92  70  91 /  20  30  40  10   5
DENTON, TX            90  70  93  72  94 /  30  30  40  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          89  69  91  71  93 /  30  30  40  10   5
DALLAS, TX            91  75  93  75  94 /  30  20  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           89  72  92  72  93 /  30  20  40  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  92  73  92 /  40  30  30  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  93  72  95 /  40  30  20  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  69  93  69  95 /  40  20  30   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79