000
FXUS64 KFWD 190818
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.

LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.

ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  74  95  75  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              94  72  94  73  95 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             91  70  92  71  94 /  20  10   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  71  95  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          91  69  92  70  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            94  75  94  76  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           92  71  93  72  94 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         92  72  93  73  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  93  72  94 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  70  94  70  96 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79