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000
FXUS64 KFWD 171806 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE IN PLAY WITH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST AFTER
OVERNIGHT MCS SWEPT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER JUST BEFORE 00Z
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE HELPS DEVELOP A POSSIBLE MCS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND
LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS
TUESDAY. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVER EVOLUTION.
IN ADDITION...WIND SHIFTS AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT DFW METRO AIRPORTS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS DOES A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND/AFTER ANY MCS.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND NORTH
OF I-20...WEST TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR A SURFACE
LOW AROUND ABILENE. BEST CONSENSUS TIMING FROM THE MODELS FOR
VCTS/CB IS BETWEEN 22Z-01Z AT METRO AIRPORTS FOR ACTIVITY NEAR THE
COLD FRONT. THE OTHER WINDOW WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FOR THE
POTENTIAL MCS AT ALL AIRPORTS INCLUDING WACO. HAVE LEFT WACO OUT
FOR ANY EARLY EVENING STORMS CONSIDERING THE WEAKER FORCING AND
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND THREATS THROUGH
TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A SHIFT TO WEAK
N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
METRO AIRPORTS BY THIS EVENING. BEST WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
STALLS...IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING AND/OR CROSSING THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AND FINALLY...SOME ATTENTION WILL ALSO BE GIVEN TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY AND HEATING WILL ALIGN FOR A THIRD
POTENTIAL REGION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CARRY 30 POPS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS
AND POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  77  92  75  95 /  30  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              91  75  93  74  94 /  30  40  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  73  87  72  88 /  40  30  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            88  75  92  73  94 /  40  30  40  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            90  77  92  76  93 /  30  30  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           88  75  91  73  92 /  60  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         91  74  91  74  92 /  60  40  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  72  92  73  92 /  30  40  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     90  72  92  71  95 /  30  40  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82