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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201056
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Trends from earlier CAMs, particularly the HRRR and HREF appear to
be on track with current radar showing showers and storms now over
western North TX now moving toward I-35 and impacting the DFW and
Sherman Metro areas by daybreak and the morning rush hour. Not
ideal, as stronger storms will contain small hail and periods of
heavy rainfall through mid-late morning. When not raining, patchy
fog/drizzle will keep the sloppy conditions around. Next cold
front moving in from the north will just keep the brisk northeast
winds entrenched with temperatures remaining in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/This Weekend/

Winds above the surface are from the southeast as the cool frontal
layer extends up to about 850 mb. Later tonight, strengthening
east-southeast winds above the surface will lead to increasing
warm moist advection and the development of widespread showers.
This activity should start to increase in coverage well after
midnight when strong isentropic ascent becomes maximized along and
north of the I-20 corridor. Steep mid level lapse rates will
initially support some elevated thunderstorms with a sub- severe
hail threat, but this activity will wane through the late morning
hours as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist. Locally heavy
rainfall may result in some minor flooding issues, especially in
urban areas.

Drivers for widespread showers with scattered storms will in place,
particularly the northern portion of a QLCS arriving across our
southern Central TX counties this afternoon and exiting to the
east early this evening. Marginal risk for an isolated strong to
severe storms appears reasonable here. Otherwise, a good chance
(50%-70%) for 2-3 rounds of persistent rainfall with embedded
convective heavier episodes with WPC mean totals from the predawn
hours this morning through Sunday morning of widespread 1-2", with
isolated heavier amounts in excess of 3" possible generally along
and south of I-30 and east of I-35/35E down into Central Texas. A
few locations (~10%) across eastern Central Texas could receive
4+" of rain through Saturday night. Widespread minor flooding
across these areas is likely, especially low lying areas with localized
potential elsewhere. Isolated flash flooding will be possible as
well, but will forego any Flood Watch at this time. Rivers from
the Brazos River Basin, east to the Trinity/Sabine Basins where
soils from previous recent rainfall events will see the best
chances for at least minor flooding levels being reached, as
saturated soils here will have run off with higher rainfall
rates and quicker responses. The Day 1 Excessive Rainfall forecast
from WPC (widespread Slight Risk) looks very reasonable, especially
east of I-35 where it wouldn`t surprise me if some of this area
was possibly upgraded to a better chance for flooding (upgraded to
a Moderate) the way showers and storms are already blossoming
across Northwest Texas and the northern Big Country at this hour.
This will only increase across most of the area through sunrise
and through tonight.

Continued gusty northeasterly winds and abundant cloud cover/
rainfall will keep diurnal temperature trends very low, with lows
in the 50s across North Texas and lower to mid 60s in Central
Texas only rising a few degrees through the day. Drier air
arriving behind a reinforcing cold front late tonight and early
Sunday will bring some patchy fog and colder low temperatures
between 45 and 55 degrees Sunday morning as this system exits
east of the area and synoptic-scale subsidence takes hold.
Scattered pockets of sunshine/insolation will help temperatures
recover into the lower- mid 60s, with stubborn cloudiness hanging
tough over Central Texas.

05/Marty


&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

A surface ridge will build southward from the Plains into North
and Central Texas on Sunday as a weak mid level ridge develops
aloft. This will set the stage for a cool and dry start to next
week, with below-normal temperatures expected both Sunday and
Monday. Sunday night should be the coolest night as a good
radiative cooling scenario allows temperatures to fall into the
lower and mid 40s. Conditions will remain dry while becoming
slightly warmer Monday and Monday night, though temperatures will
still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

A general warming trend will continue through the midweek period
as the mid level ridge strengthens overhead. A shortwave rounding
the northeast periphery of the ridge will push a cold front
southward towards the Red River late Tuesday, beginning a period
of unsettled weather mid to late next week. The front will likely
stall somewhere between the Red River and the I-20 corridor,
providing a focus for isolated showers and storms Tuesday night
and Wednesday. POPs will initially be low, however, as subsidence
from the ridge works against convective development, and will keep
rain chances in the slight chance range.

The ridge will begin to break down on Thursday as the next
shortwave trough approaches from the west, bringing somewhat
better chances for rain Thursday into Friday. Convection may
initiate along the dryline as it enters the Big Country, and we
may need to monitor the potential for a few severe storms late
Thursday into Friday. As the shortwave exits to the east, a larger
scale upper trough will be entering the Rockies and will provide
even better rain chances as it emerges in the Plains. There may be
a lull in precipitation late Friday into next Saturday, but
convection will redevelop by late next Saturday into next Sunday
as the upper trough approaches and storms develop along an
attendant Pacific front. A few severe storms may again be in play,
which is typical for April, and we will know a lot more the
further into next week we get.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Challenges:
You name it, we have it. Poor flying conditions in the IFR/LIFR
realm will persist through much of the day, with pockets of VLIFR
possible with any thicker -DZ/BR or even +SHRA/TSRA. Only major
change from the 06z TAFs was to being VCTS and TEMPO TSRA right at
12z, as scattered-numerous SHRA/TSRA now moving through the
western D10 and toward the DFW airports, impacting commercial
flights initially WBND/NBND traffic, as well as the Bowie and Glen
Rose cornerposts. By 15z, the entire will be impacted.

NE winds around 10 kts will only increase to near 15 kts with next
FROPA arriving by 15z. Gusts may reach 20-25 kts at times.
Otherwise, TSRA/SHRA taper off by mid evening across DFW, but hang
on longer at Waco Regional Airport due to a late day linear storm
system. Subsidence and drier air arrive from the north during the
predawn hours Sunday with DFW D10 rising into MVFR, while Waco
remains socked into IFR.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  50  64  48  72 / 100  90   0   0   0
Waco                64  50  62  45  69 /  90  80   0   0   0
Paris               58  47  63  42  70 /  90  90   0   0   0
Denton              60  47  63  42  71 / 100  80   0   0   0
McKinney            60  48  65  44  71 / 100  90   0   0   0
Dallas              61  50  65  47  73 / 100  90   0   0   0
Terrell             60  49  63  44  71 / 100  90   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  50  63  46  70 / 100  90   0   0   0
Temple              66  50  61  45  70 /  90  90   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  47  64  44  72 / 100  70   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$