Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180527
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
A large upper low remains entrenched across the Desert Southwest
while a surface front remains stationary along the Upper Texas
Coast. Water vapor imagery indicates a lead shortwave rotating
northeast into the Southern Plains, around the eastern flank of
the main upper low. This disturbance appears to be enhancing the
isentropic lift already in place, causing an increase in
convection across the region. This and current RADAR trends
warrant at least a TEMPO TS group for the next few hours at all
TAF locations, even though most precipitation will be in the form
of stratiform rain.

After the shortwave lifts north, there will still be persistent
overrunning in place. The upper low off to the west will move east
Wednesday, causing the main area of precipitation to shift east of
the area. Although the rain may come to an end around midday, IFR
conditions (which should develop before sunrise) will remain in
place all day and continue into Wednesday night. Conditions should
improve quickly Thursday morning as the upper low swings east
into the MS Valley.


30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/
With upper troughing entrenched over the Desert Southwest, a deep
tropical plume downstream has kept North and Central Texas cloudy
today, preventing the shallow postfrontal air mass in place from
moderating today. The richest moisture will remain to our
southeast, but as upglide steadily moistens the column above the
frontal inversion, showers will become more numerous into the
evening hours. A disturbance emerging from Chihuahua is
responsible for the increase in activity across the Concho Valley
and Big Country. As this impulse swings through the region
overnight, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
affect nearly all of North and Central Texas. Marginal lapse rates
aloft will keep showers the primary convective mode, and
lightning will be the only threat with any storms.

The convective elements will result in variable amounts across
the region. Mean areal totals overnight will generally be 1/4 to
1/2 inch across the northwestern half of the CWA, with many areas
in Central and East Texas topping one inch. It is difficult for
soils to dry out this time of year, and much of the region is
still soggy from the Sunday deluge. The deep unidirectional flow
above the frontal layer will favor training echoes. While
widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, isolated issues may
arise, particularly where training of heavier activity occurs. The
stream of precipitation will steadily shift eastward early
Wednesday morning, the bulk of the convection will be within the
southeastern half of our CWA after daybreak.

Upglide will continue throughout the day on Wednesday, but the
quality of the moisture within it will vary considerably from
northwest to southeast. Cloud cover will persist regionwide, and
high temperatures will only top Tuesday`s values by a handful of
degrees at best. But additional rounds of precipitation will be
confined to our southeastern zones Wednesday afternoon/evening. As
the trough axis to our west finally passes through on Thursday,
the precipitation will come to and end across the entire region.
Southwest winds and clearing skies will allow temperatures to
reach the 70s in many areas.

The mild weather will persist into the weekend in advance of the
next storm system. Guidance continues trending toward a more
powerful closed low, possibly tracking right through North Texas
Saturday night. There is still considerable spread among ensemble
members, and the available moisture in many of the scenarios
appears inadequate for strong/severe convection. However, if you
have any outdoor plans this weekend, keep abreast of the forecast
as the event approaches.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  56  45  70  49 /  90  30  10   5   0
Waco                46  57  43  71  47 /  90  60  20   5   0
Paris               46  55  45  64  47 /  80  50  20  10   5
Denton              43  56  43  68  44 /  80  20  10   5   0
McKinney            45  55  43  67  45 /  80  40  10  10   0
Dallas              47  57  47  70  49 /  90  40  10  10   0
Terrell             46  57  45  69  48 /  90  50  20  10   0
Corsicana           47  57  48  70  50 / 100  80  30  10   0
Temple              46  57  44  72  49 / 100  60  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       43  56  42  72  44 /  80  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/79



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