Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200825
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017


.SHORT TERM...

/Today and Tonight/

The main weather headline over the next 24 hours will be the
summertime heat across a good portion of North and Central TX. The
hot conditions combined with sufficient low level moisture will
result in dangerous heat which has prompted the issuance of a Heat
Advisory for the eastern half of North and Central TX.

Surface analysis this morning revealed that low level moisture
was beginning to slowly slosh back towards the northwest in
response to light southerly/southeasterly winds. The mid-level
ridge in place across Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle is
expected to remain anchored across the region. This should limit
the potential for any showers or storms over the next 24 hours. While
I can`t completely rule out a rogue shower or two beneath the H5
ridge, it`s unlikely to persist long enough to warrant inclusion
of appreciable PoPs/Wx in the worded forecast. For now, I`ll carry
a 5 to 10 PoP across the area.

With regards to the heat---Thursday afternoon max apparent
temperature values will be greatest generally east of I-35 and
north of I-20. I am most confident that these areas will likely
experience several hours with heat index values near and above 105
degrees. Deeper mixing farther west should result in dewpoints
falling into the mid-60s, keeping these areas below 105 degree
heat indices. Finally, across Central TX, the prospects of
exceeding 105 degree heat indices this afternoon will be a bit on
the marginal side. However, there is increasing confidence that
Heat Advisory criteria will be met Friday and Saturday. As a
result, we`ve opted to include them in the current Heat Advisory.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM...

/Friday through Wednesday/

Little change to the extended forecast with hot and mostly dry
conditions expected into next week. The only exception will be
over the latter half of the weekend as a mid level low moves
westward across the northern Gulf and into southeast Texas. Weak
forcing for ascent will spread into a moist and unstable
environment Sunday afternoon. This will occur as a stronger
shortwave trough swings through the upper Midwest, effectively
displacing the upper ridge somewhat farther to the west. This
should allow some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
Sunday afternoon, mainly across our eastern counties where
moisture will be concentrated. In addition, a weak front may slide
southward into Oklahoma Sunday night and will likely be a focus
for thunderstorm development. We`ll maintain some 20 PoPs into
Monday mainly north of I-20 to account for any isolated activity
that may develop in the vicinity of this remnant boundary.
Otherwise, it looks like the upper ridge will build back across
the Plains into next week keeping temperatures in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with generally light southeast winds.

As the subsidence associated with the upper ridge steadily
increases Thursday, the CU should be noticeably flatter. Some
diurnal showers and storms will still be possible in the weak
easterly flow across South Texas, but this activity will find it
increasingly difficult to reach Central Texas. No impacts are
expected at Waco the next few days, but isolated afternoon cells
could affect traffic to the south and inbound flights approaching
the Cedar Creek cornerpost.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81  99  80  98 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                99  78  98  77  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
Paris               97  76  96  75  95 /  10   5   0   5   5
Denton             100  79  98  78  98 /  10   5   0   0   5
McKinney            99  77  96  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
Dallas              99  82  99  81  99 /  10   5   0   0   5
Terrell             98  76  96  77  96 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           99  77  96  77  96 /  10   5   0   5  10
Temple              99  77  99  76  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       98  76  98  76  98 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$



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