Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 152106
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOLLOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCELERATES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR CURRENTLY CROSSING THE RED RIVER WILL
CAUSE THE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR...COLD ADVECTION AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT /A FEW OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY/. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO HINDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WHICH
SHOULD STAVE OFF FROST FORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR DECEMBER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS OUR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF TEXAS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGHING IN THE
WEST DEEPENS AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES. WE MAY DEAL
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1125 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET AND REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  53  39  48  43 /   0   5   5  40  50
WACO, TX              40  57  40  49  45 /   0   5  10  40  50
PARIS, TX             35  51  33  47  41 /   5   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            36  52  35  47  42 /   0   5   5  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  34  47  42 /   0   5   5  40  60
DALLAS, TX            40  53  39  47  43 /   0   5   5  40  50
TERRELL, TX           38  52  36  48  43 /   0   5   5  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         39  56  39  50  45 /   0   5   5  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            39  59  41  50  47 /   0   5  10  40  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  53  37  47  41 /   0   5   5  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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