Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
FXUS64 KFWD 241946
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the
southeastern U.S. through Thursday which will keep North and
Central Texas seasonably hot and generally rain-free. The only
exception will be a slight chance of showers and storms across the
eastern zones Thursday afternoon due to deep moisture, daytime
heating and a weak disturbance moving northward from the Gulf.

The upper ridge will begin to slide toward the East Coast on
Friday while an upper trough deepens and moves east across the
Northern and Central Plains. Increasing large scale upward
vertical motion and increasing moisture through much of the
troposphere will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Friday with the best chances east of the Interstate 35 corridor
Friday afternoon/early evening. The primary hazards expected on
Friday will be from locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

The upper trough will lift toward the Great Lakes on Saturday
which will leave the northern half of the country in nearly zonal
flow. Some weak perturbations on the western periphery of the
upper ridge are expected to move across North and Central Texas
on Saturday. These disturbances will be the catalyst for scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances across the
eastern half of the CWA where the best moisture will reside.

The upper ridge will creep back to the west on Sunday and bring a
slight decrease in large scale forcing and keep the best moisture
confined to South Texas. A few showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible, especially Sunday afternoon.

Upper level high pressure will slowly build over the Central U.S. the
first half of next week which will keep the entire region seasonably
hot and mainly rain free, outside of some low shower/storm
chances each afternoon.

We will continue to focus our attention in the coming days to the
Gulf where a tropical system, currently developing near Puerto
Rico, may intensify. The current model solutions differ greatly
on the track and strength of this system, but both agree that the
system will remain well to the east of the region through next
week.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with scattered daytime cumulus. MVFR
ceilings will likely impact Central Texas airports after sunrise,
but the cloud deck should remain well south of the Metroplex.

South winds will prevail with typical diurnal variations in
direction. Wind speeds will exceed 10kts this afternoon, but winds
will be noticeably lighter Thursday afternoon.

As a ridge of high pressure shifts east, the first in a series of
northwestward-moving disturbances will invade East Texas on
Thursday. The associated convection should remain well east of TAF
sites. But as additional moisture advection occurs on Friday with
another spoke of energy from the southeast, more widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  94  76  91  75 /   0  10   5  50  10
Waco                74  92  73  91  73 /   0  20   5  40  20
Paris               73  93  74  89  73 /   5  20  10  60  20
Denton              74  94  73  90  73 /   0   5   5  50  10
McKinney            74  93  74  90  73 /   5  10   5  50  10
Dallas              76  95  76  91  75 /   0  10   5  50  10
Terrell             74  93  74  90  74 /   5  20   5  50  20
Corsicana           75  92  75  90  74 /   5  20  10  50  20
Temple              72  91  72  91  72 /   5  20   5  40  20
Mineral Wells       72  94  72  91  71 /   0   5   5  30  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

25/79



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.