Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 090344
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
944 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016
The main band of clouds has moved to the southeast of a Lampasas
to Athens line as of 915 PM and expect them to exit the forecast
area around midnight. Another band of clouds can be seen on
satellite imagery northwest of a line from Jayton to Wichita Falls
to Atoka Oklahoma line. These clouds are moving slowly southeast
and are expected to move into the Red River counties tonight. Have
only made some minor adjustments to the overnight lows and timing
of the clouds. Updates have already been sent.
/ISSUED 605 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
00 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns...None major. VFR with north winds, becoming east and
southeast Friday afternoon.
VFR will prevail across all North and Central TX terminals over
the next 24 to 30 hours. Clouds between FL090-FL120 appear to be
associated with moisture at the base of a broad 700mb trough.
This trough should slide eastward through the next 6-12 hours
which may result in a scattering of the FL090-FL120 ceilings,
first at the DFW Metroplex around midnight and then a few hours
later at Waco. For now will keep tabs on trends. Winds are
expected to become light during the overnight hours as high
pressure settles in across the region. If these winds go calm and
mid-clouds scatter and clear, then widespread frost build up will
be likely on aircraft that remain parked at area terminals during
the overnight hours. Towards Friday afternoon, northeast winds
should become easterly and a return to south flow may be possible
as early as 17-19 UTC.
As high pressure slides towards East TX, some return flow sets up
along the western periphery of the high. This may result in a
ceiling around FL050. For now, I won`t mention this explicitly in
the TAF for brevity sake and given its low impact, but I`ll take
a closer look at this potential for the 06 UTC TAF.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
Strong surface high pressure, on the order of 1044 mb, will
settle into the Central and Southern Plains tonight behind a
departing shortwave trough. This will result in clearing skies,
drier air and decreasing wind speeds, all of which will promote
efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows will range from
about 19 in the northwest to the middle 20s across the Metroplex
and the southern zones. The only thing that could potentially keep
temperatures from reaching these values is if the mid cloud deck
is slower in scattering out.
Friday will be a much warmer day even though the morning will
start out very cold. We expect afternoon highs to warm into the
40s under a mostly sunny sky and a light wind.
Progressive zonal flow will prevail through the weekend which will
result in the development of a surface lee trough across the High
Plains and the return of Gulf moisture. The low level warm air
advection pattern will bring near normal temperatures back to the
region with lows in the 40S and highs in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Some warm air advection showers will be possible
Saturday night ahead of a shortwave. The shortwave will move
across North and Central Texas on Sunday and bring a slightly
better chance of showers, especially east of the Interstate 35
corridor where low level moisture will be most abundant.
Instability should be insufficient for any thunder.
The passage of the shortwave trough axis Sunday night will allow
a weak cold front to move into the region. The air behind the
front will be a bit cooler and drier but nothing like the arctic
intrusion that we are currently experiencing.
The upper air pattern will become more amplified next week with a
long wave trough progged to develop across the northern half of
the CONUS with another arctic front expected to infiltrate the
Plains. There are some differences among the extended models with
regards to how deep the trough will become, when the cold front
will arrive in North Texas and if any precipitation will accompany
it. Therefore, we will keep the forecast dry Monday through
Thursday with temperatures near seasonal normals Monday and
Tuesday and below normal Wednesday and Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 24 43 31 51 46 / 0 0 0 5 20
Waco 22 45 31 50 47 / 5 0 0 10 20
Paris 21 42 28 48 42 / 0 0 0 10 40
Denton 19 42 28 50 44 / 0 0 0 5 20
McKinney 22 42 28 49 44 / 0 0 0 5 30
Dallas 25 44 32 52 47 / 0 0 0 5 30
Terrell 23 44 30 50 46 / 5 0 0 5 40
Corsicana 23 45 32 51 47 / 5 0 0 10 40
Temple 24 44 32 51 48 / 5 0 0 10 30
Mineral Wells 20 43 28 54 46 / 5 0 0 5 10