Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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866
FXUS64 KFWD 031142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...HIGH-BASED VCSH AND SUBSEQUENT TURBULENCE. LOW THUNDER
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOWARDS THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE PARCHED...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. HI-
RES GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION DOWN TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT A BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME WHICH MAY RESULT
IN IMPACTS TO WESTERN CORNERPOSTS. IF THIS INSTABILITY IS A BIT
HIGHER OR LIFT IS CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE METROPLEX. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP NEAR
ANY OF THE TERMINALS...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY ALSO
RESULT IN TURBULENCE BELOW FL080. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESUME
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.

FOR THE DFW EXTENDED...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TAF WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE WACO TAF AT
THIS TIME AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
WACO. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF INCLUSION OF VCSH/VCTS IS WARRANTED.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                73  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               70  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              73  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            72  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              73  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             72  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           72  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              73  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       74  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79



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