Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010004
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE ARLTATEX MOVES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY 14Z MONDAY AND
SOUTHEAST BY 23Z. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY BUT WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE FOR AVIATION
PURPOSES.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT
UPPER LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WERE LOCATED IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE RELATIVE TO THIS UPPER LOW...PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.

DESPITE THE DRY DAY TODAY...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A
MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO BE
PROCESSED FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINFALL. COMBINE AND ROSSER
CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR CONCERNS ALONG THE EAST FORK AND MAIN STEM OF
THE TRINITY RIVER DUE TO STRONG RELEASES FROM LAKE RAY HUBBARD AND
THEN FLOOD WATERS MOVING IN FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE TRINITY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TALKING WITH KAUFMAN COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT THIS MORNING, IT SEEMS LIKE FLOOD WATERS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF COMBINE AS LONG AS THE LEVEES HOLD AND ARE NOT OVERTOPPED
TO THE EAST OF COMBINE. IF THE LEVEE IS BREACHED, SOME RESIDENTS
OF COMBINE MAY HAVE TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND ON SHORT NOTICE. A FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF COMBINE FOR THE THREAT
OF FLOODING, EVEN THOUGH THE EAST FORK OF THE TRINITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY FLOODING THE TOWN.

DOWNSTREAM AT ROSSER, NO SPECIAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN PLACE AT
THIS TIME, HOWEVER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CONCERNED THAT IF THE
RIVER LEVEL CLIMBS ABOVE 42 FEET, THE LEVEE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVERTOPPED NEAR THE TOWN. AT THIS TIME, WITH NO ONGOING ISSUES, WE
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INTEGRITY OF THE LEVEE. THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CREST ABOVE 42 FEET, BUT BY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF A
FOOT, AND NOT UNTIL TUESDAY. IF KAUFMAN COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ISSUES ANY SPECIFIC EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS, WE WILL
LIKELY COORDINATE A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING WITH THEM AT THAT
TIME.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN PLACE
AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A
TYPICAL WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PLAINS, WHICH IS
TYPICALLY CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW
THAT PATTERN WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS SOMETHING THE REGION HAS NOT HAD IN THE PAST
5 OR 6 YEARS REALLY. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEALTHY VEGETATION
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

THIS "EXTRA" SOURCE OF WATER VAPOR WILL TEND TO PROMOTE MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WILL PREVENT US FROM HEATING UP AS
QUICKLY AS WE HAVE IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS UNDER THIS FAMILIAR
PATTERN. ALSO, BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS EACH DAY WITHOUT A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, SIMPLY CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SLOW WARM UP
WITH A 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE EACH DAY. A 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE
IS NOT TYPICALLY LISTED IN THE WORDED FORECAST BECAUSE THE
COVERAGE IS TOO SPARSE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LEFT IN THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
I-35 MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A ZONE OF MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE CWA...LOW-LEVEL POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN BRINGING A RETURN TO UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTED BY EVAPORATION AND
TRANSPIRATION BY VEGETATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGELY
UNORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS OF LIFT THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BECAUSE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING, DID NOT PLACE HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...ANY MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISM MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADD HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME DAY LATE IN THE WEEK. PICKING OUT THAT
DAY/S WHERE STORMS ARE MORE FAVORED WILL BE A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  82  64  85  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              59  83  62  86  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             58  80  61  82  64 /   5   5   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  63  85  66 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  81  62  84  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  64  86  69 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           59  81  62  85  66 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  63  85  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  83  63  86  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  64  86  67 /  10  10  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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