Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 162337 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017


.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 06z
Monday. Stratus is expected to develop again overnight across
South Texas and should spread north northeastward through Sunday
morning. The flow in the 1000-2500 feet level should be veered
enough to push this stratus just east of Waco and to the east of
the Metroplex TAF sites. Have placed a SCT015 at TAF sites and
depending on the 00z guidance may have to consider adding a TEMPO
BKN015 for a few hours at Waco. Southeast winds around 10 knots
will become southerly by 11z and back around to the southeast by
16z Sunday.

58

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/
No major changes to the forecast through the upcoming week as
North Texas will primarily be under the influence of subtropical
ridging resulting in above normal temperatures and little chance
for precipitation. For the remainder of the weekend, we will
remain well removed from the influences of a surface frontal
boundary and stronger forcing for ascent from a shortwave trough
moving through the Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing tomorrow afternoon across parts of the
Southern Plains and may make it as far south as southern Oklahoma
but should diminish quickly as they approach the Red River given
increasing inhibition and weaker low level flow. It will be
another warm day on Sunday with highs 5-7 degrees above normal in
the mid 90s.

On Monday, the upper ridging will flatten a bit leaving us in a
more zonal flow, but with a lack of any significant forcing or
surface feature, precipitation chances will remain low. We`ll also
be fairly stoutly capped during this time. There will continue to
be a weak frontal boundary to our north that may help initiate
some scattered showers and storms both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons but these should be well removed from our area.
Temperatures will continue to be about 5-7 degrees above normal
through mid week.

By Thursday, some remnant mid/upper level moisture may stream
across the region from a tropical system in the Pacific. This
added moisture may result in a few scattered showers/storms as
there will be some weak forcing for ascent associated with the
remnant cyclone. PoPs will remain 20% during this time. Outside of
the low chances on Thursday, we`ll be watching a large trough dig
into the western U.S. on Friday. While this will be a stronger
system, it too should amplify and eject eastward into the Plains
taking the best forcing north of the area through next weekend.
There is some indication that a stronger front could move through
the region late next weekend into the following Monday, but it is
still several days away.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  94  74  94  75 /   5   5   5  10   5
Waco                72  95  72  94  74 /   0   5   5  10   5
Paris               68  92  70  91  70 /   0   5   5  10   5
Denton              72  94  71  94  73 /   5   5   5  10   5
McKinney            72  93  71  92  73 /   5   5   5  10   5
Dallas              75  94  75  94  76 /   0   5   5  10   5
Terrell             70  92  72  94  73 /   0   5   5  10   5
Corsicana           71  92  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10   5
Temple              71  94  70  93  73 /   0   5   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       71  92  69  94  71 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/08



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