Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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146
FXUS64 KFWD 182112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017


.SHORT TERM...
Sustained wind speeds will remain near the wind advisory speed
criterion through 5pm CST. During the remainder of the advisory,
pressure rises will still be increasing in our southeastern zones
where peak gusts for the day may still occur. But for the
remainder of North Texas, the intensity of the winds will steadily
diminish, falling below 10mph by mid-evening.

A band of cold air stratocu will continue to thin out and should
have little impact on the radiational cooling that will be
enhanced by the diminishing surface winds. However, the winds
above the nocturnal boundary layer will persist with 20-25kt winds
as low as 925mb (within 2000ft of the surface for much of North
and Central Texas). The winds only increase through 850mb and
700mb. Typically, this disrupts the radiational cooling enough
that, even with a dry postfrontal air mass and mostly clear skies,
the surface layer won`t cool as effectively. A few locations may
flirt with freezing, particularly in the northwest where the
surface winds will be the lightest. But even there, the wind
should be sufficient to prevent saturation at the ground, and no
frost is expected.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through Saturday/

With the latest set of model runs, no significant changes have
occurred to the ongoing weather forecast for next week. Generally
quiet and dry weather is expected with near and below normal
seasonal temperatures.

Sunday morning will be the coolest morning of the week in the wake
of today`s strong cold front. Temperatures during the day will
only warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s. South winds will
return across the region by Monday as the surface high moves east
and another front starts moving down the Plains. Another mid
level shortwave moving quickly through northwest flow aloft will
help push this front into the region on Tuesday. Moisture return
ahead of the front Monday and Tuesday still appears too shallow
and scant for rain chances as the front moves through, but for now
will keep the mention of sprinkles across parts of Central and
East Texas. We will see an increase in mid and high cloud cover
both Monday and Tuesday.

Behind this next front, cool temperatures will linger for about a
day (Wednesday) and then temperatures warm as we head into the
weekend. Thanksgiving Day looks very seasonable with highs in the
60s, light winds and sunny skies. Much of the region will be in
the 70s by Saturday, but another cold front is on the horizon
before next weekend is over.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1222 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

...Airport Weather Warning Through 3 PM CST...

Wind gusts will occasionally reach/exceed 35kts through mid-
afternoon; thus, the warning will remain in effect. The axis of
max pressure rises is transiting the Metroplex at midday. Coupled
with the fact that the maximum values within this axis are
diminishing, the peak winds are likely behind us. The sustained
speeds and gusts will gradually diminish the remainder of the day,
falling below 10kts by mid-evening. The surface high will move
across North Texas Sunday afternoon; the resulting light and
variable winds should allow for a transition to south flow.
Southerly winds will prevail Sunday night into Monday.

Some 850mb moisture within the cold air is advancing toward the
Metroplex. The western edge of this VFR cloud bank is thinning,
and any ceilings this afternoon would be brief. Otherwise, high
clouds above 300mb will continue streaming across North Texas.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    41  62  40  64  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                37  62  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               37  59  37  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              35  62  38  64  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            37  60  38  63  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              41  62  41  64  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             38  62  37  63  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           40  61  39  63  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              39  62  39  65  46 /   0   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       33  61  35  64  44 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

82/25



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