Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 220552
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE NOW JUST SOUTH OF WACO WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TAPERING OFF. WILL SHOW CIGS AT IFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY FOR THE METROPLEX...BUT FOR WACO THESE MAY
PREVAIL AT LOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 9Z OR SO. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY AS SHOWERS. THE TRUE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFW/FTW TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF VCTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS. LIGHT BR OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW PREVAILING TSRA
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH PREVAILING
STEADY RAIN AND VCTS UNTIL 3-4Z SUNDAY WHEN IT SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT ONCE
RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES. PACKAGE SEEMS ON
TRACK OTHERWISE. POPS MAY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...A NUMBER OF AREA
MAY PICK UP A HUNDREDTH. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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