Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 272135
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SLICES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WAS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
FOLLOW SUITE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OF AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAINLY ALONG THE
U.S. 79 CORRIDOR...BUT THINKING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HELP MOST
AREAS STAY AROUND 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY YIELDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL HELP TO INDUCE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S REGION-WIDE.
WE MAY EVEN BE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF A FEW DAYTIME HIGH
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY OUT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MECHANICAL MIXING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD INTO
THURSDAY AM.

BY THURSDAY...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ZONES BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND COLDER AIR /AT LEAST COMPARATIVE TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS/. BREEZY NORTH WINDS...COURTESY OF SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 30
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW ZONES. FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES MAY STILL WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE LOW 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL NE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE TOWARDS
THE E-SE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY
AS THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE 290-295K THETA SURFACES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

15-BAIN

&&

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BUT WE WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY ADVANCE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL START TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
BRING MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT...BUT THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN PROCESSES TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH THE GROUND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL FALL
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION...COINCIDING WITH
THE BEST AREA OF ISENTROPIC AND LARGE SCALE LIFT. IN THIS
AREA...AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH WITH JUST
UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OF COURSE VARY BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.75+ INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT DRY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAIN CHANCES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND THEN PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z FWD RAOB OBSERVED A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING IN
PLACE IS FAIRLY HIGH. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OVER AREA TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AND SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. AS A
RESULT...DISCOUNTED THE NAM SOLUTION FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  78  53  63  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              44  78  53  66  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  75  51  61  36 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            43  78  49  62  38 /   0   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          42  77  51  61  37 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            49  78  54  63  40 /   0   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  76  53  64  39 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  77  53  67  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            45  78  51  68  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  80  48  63  38 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /82





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