RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FGUS74 KFWD 192041
ESFFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-200841-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE WEST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER NEAR
JACKSBORO HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE JACKSBORO FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 9.3 FEET DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 11/18/2009 - 2/16/2010
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WEST FORK TRINITY RIVER
JACKSBORO 20.0 4.3 4.4 6.4 8.2 9.3 11.9 13.9 15.9 18.6
BOYD 16.0 5.9 7.3 9.0 9.8 10.5 12.1 13.2 15.2 16.1
FORT WORTH 20.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7
GRAND PRAIRIE 30.0 6.9 8.2 8.7 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.3 15.8 19.3
BIG SANDY CREEK
BRIDGEPORT 12.0 2.6 3.4 4.5 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.6 8.1 8.9
CLEAR FORK TRINITY RIVER
WEATHERFORD 15.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.2 8.9 10.8
FORT WORTH 15.0 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 11.2
DENTON CREEK
JUSTIN 10.0 3.9 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.7 10.3 12.1
ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER
GAINESVILLE 22.0 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.3 6.0 7.4
CARROLLTON 8.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.9
CLEAR CREEK
SANGER 25.0 6.9 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.9 14.0
SISTER GROVE CREEK
BLUE RIDGE 24.0 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.5
EAST FORK TRINITY RIVER
MCKINNEY 16.0 7.8 10.0 12.1 13.9 16.3 17.2 18.0 18.5 19.4
CRANDALL 18.0 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.7 7.0 7.9 9.8 10.7 14.1
CHAMBERS CREEK
RICE 24.0 16.3 19.6 21.3 24.5 25.3 26.2 27.2 28.1 29.3
TRINITY RIVER
DALLAS 30.0 22.8 23.6 25.6 26.2 27.0 27.8 29.3 32.1 34.4
ROSSER 31.0 12.9 14.1 15.9 18.7 20.4 22.5 24.4 30.5 33.8
TRINIDAD 33.0 25.3 29.8 34.3 36.0 37.1 39.4 41.7 42.6 47.1
LONG LAKE 35.0 25.0 26.7 31.1 33.1 35.2 37.3 38.8 40.3 45.6
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK WORTH 597.0 594.1 594.1 594.1 594.2 594.3 594.4 594.4 594.7 594.8
LK ARLINGTON 550.3 550.4 550.5 550.6 550.7 550.9 551.0 551.4 551.5
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
$$
