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000
FXUS62 KMHX 252233
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
633 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas from the
northeast tonight, and will remain in control before sliding
offshore this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Thu...Update to increase Pops and add thunder to
the forecast for far southern sections through early to mid
evening. Convergence along several boundaries combined with
around 500 J/Kg SBCAPE and 25-30 kt bulk shear has allowed
scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm to develop across
Onslow County which has spread into parts of surrounding
counties. Guidance shows activity continuing into the early to
mid evening hours and spreading westward into Duplin County.
Activity should dissipate quickly after sunset with loss of
surface based heating.

Previous discussion...Eastern NC sits under broad upper level
troughing this afternoon in an increasingly amplified pattern as
ridging gradually builds over the central plains and makes its
way towards the eastern CONUS tonight into tomorrow morning. A
weak embedded s/w currently over the western Great Lakes is
expected to dive across the mid-Atlantic early Fri morning with
little fanfare. At the surface, cold front remains well offshore
but a reinforcing surge of northeasterly winds is pushing
across the northern Outer Banks and will continue to push
southwest through the tonight.

Near term focus is the ongoing low (15-20%) potential for a few
isolated showers, predominantly across the coastal plain where
sound and sea breeze circulations will converge with the
aforementioned northeasterly surge. HRRR has remained insistent
on development across this area for the past several runs, and
12z hi-res suite jumped onboard increasing confidence. Impacts
will be minimal...with such dry air aloft activity will be brief
and offer little more than a couple hundredths of an inch of
rain.

For tonight, confidence is increased in widespread low stratus
encroaching inland from the coast as onshore easterly flow
continues to pool moisture under the frontal inversion. Almost
all hi-res guidance shows low overcast conditions spreading at
least as far west as Highway 17, but about half the guidance
brings it across the coastal plain as well. Steady northeasterly
winds at around 5-10 mph (higher along the coast) will keep any
fog at bay. Did raise temperatures from the previous forecast
given insulating effect of low clouds and continuous low-level
mixing from the winds, favoring lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thu...Low stratus will gradually break up tomorrow
morning with increased heating, with the first peaks of sky
likely around 9 am and rapidly giving way to mostly sunny
conditions while high pressure remains in control. With mid-
level ridge and associated subsidence shifting overhead no
precipitation is anticipated tomorrow allowing for a pleasant
mid-spring day. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler than
today, in the low to mid 70s inland but low to mid 60s along the
Outer Banks and immediate coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating the region.

High pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard through the
end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Low moving
through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this
stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains if it will be
pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If
the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the
weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will
see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this
update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the
most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the
weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become
southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system
will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves
will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the
cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with
higher precip chances expected in farther north than eastern NC.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the long term
(mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the surface high
to our east over the Western Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Fri/...
As of 150 PM Thur...VFR conditions continue this afternoon under
as diurnal cu fields quickly develop in northeasterly flow
behind a cold front. Hi-res guidance is pointing to a few very
isolated showers across the coastal plain late this afternoon
into evening as a reinforcing backdoor surface boundary pushes
across the region, but these will quickly fall apart by sunset.
Winds behind the boundary may briefly gust up to 15 kt for an
hour or two.

Beyond today, guidance continues to hammer the development of
widespread low stratus as onshore flow pools moisture under a
strong frontal inversion. Timing has changed little from the
previous forecast, with MVFR gradually spreading from east to
west shortly after 00z and uninterrupted IFR from 06-07z until
around 14z when diurnal processes begin to break up the stratus
deck. VFR returns area wide by mid-morning Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through
Monday with high pressure prevails over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...Updated winds using HRRR model which
captures the stronger wind surge the best. Currently seeing N to
NE winds around 20-25 kt with gusts to near 30 kt. Strongest
winds will occur this evening, then diminish some after midnight
but gusts around 25 kt expected to continue through late tonight
and into Friday morning. Have adjusted the end time of the SCA
for the sounds and Alligator River accordingly. Continue to
leave the Neuse/Bay River zone out of the SCA but occasional
gusts to 25 kt will be possible near the mouth of the rivers
this evening.

Previous discussion...Advertised northeasterly surge this
afternoon is a bit stronger than anticipated this afternoon with
gusts already exceeding 25 kt over soundside waters and the
offshore waters north of Cape Hatteras. Seas across the far
northern waters are already starting to build in excess of 4
feet, while across Raleigh and Onslow Bays they remain at an
average 3-4 feet.

SCA conditions will continue through tonight as northeasterly
surge works its way across the waters. Latest guidance has the
strongest winds coming down a bit quicker soundside, ending just
before midnight, but still remaining at 20+ kt through tomorrow
as northeast to easterly flow remains in place. Did extend the
the SCA across the offshore waters north of Ocracoke Inlet as
local wave guidance tends to diminish seas too quickly in
northeasterly flow regimes.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 410 AM Thursday...Surface high pressure over the
Northeastern U.S. will nose south over the waters on Friday as a
weak boundary remains south of the area. The ridge will shift
off the coast on Saturday allowing flow to become more easterly,
then eventually southeasterly by Sunday morning. A new surface
ridge will develop across the Southeastern states and shift off
the Carolina coast by Sunday afternoon, shifting winds
southwesterly and persisting SW through Tuesday.

NW winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday, though seas will
linger at or above 6 ft through much of the day for the coastal
waters. May see SCAs persist until Friday evening for the
central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. Winds
and seas subside below SCA levels for the weekend into early
next week with generally good boating conditions anticipated.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...DAG/RCF
AVIATION...DAG/MS/RCF
MARINE...DAG/SK/MS/RCF