Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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039 FXUS64 KOUN 011728 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Complex affecting portions of western north Texas early this morning is expected to continue to slowly weaken through the early morning hours. Another area of showers and thunderstorms across western Kansas will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this morning, but these too are expected to weaken as they move into the area toward morning. A few residual showers and thunderstorms that last into first part of the day today will gradually dissipate. There is a signal for a few isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon, but most of the area will remain dry through much of the day and into this evening. Otherwise today will see the beginning of warming trend that will likely through at least the middle of the upcoming week. As we go through the afternoon and into this evening, again expect convection to develop across much of the High plains. This activity will grow upscale into several complexes of storms (MCS) that will make their way east and southeast out into the Plain states. These are expected to make their way into western sections of Oklahoma and western north Texas by late evening and will likely remain stronger longer given sufficient instability as well as a stronger llj across west Texas and western Oklahoma. These will make their way east across the area tonight with a damaging wind risk as well as some hail potential. Isolated heavy rainfall will also be a concern. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Much like the last few days, some lingering morning shower/thunderstorm activity is possible Sunday, but much of the area should see dry conditions through a majority of the day. More of a signal across the northern/central Plains Sunday night into Monday with the aid of a weak surface boundary. Although a rather deep waa layer could result in a few storms further south across our area. These lower-end precip chances continue into mid-week with better chances to the north of the area. Much of the area will also see daytime temps warm into the 90s as we go through this time frame. A cold front looks to move south across the area Wednesday, which will temper the warming trend, no real cold air is associated with the boundary. It may however shift any lingering precip chances off to our south and east for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Winds will generally be from the south and southeast although shifting winds are expected with storms and/or boundaries moving across the area due to storms. An area of showers/storms will continue to affect areas along the Red River early this afternoon. A few additional storms may develop late this afternoon/early evening in central OK. However, the higher chances for storms will be later this evening into Sunday morning as a complex(es) of storms move across the area although there is some uncertainty on how far east and southeast this activity will go. Strong winds will be possible with the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 87 70 90 / 20 30 20 30 Hobart OK 67 88 69 95 / 30 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 70 89 71 93 / 20 20 30 10 Gage OK 64 89 67 95 / 50 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 66 87 69 87 / 20 40 40 40 Durant OK 68 89 71 87 / 10 30 30 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25