Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281710
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
110 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed
quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in
from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage
likely early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...

**Coastal low to impact ENC with heavy rain, gusty winds, and
 coastal impacts today**

Based on satellite, radar, and observations, it appears that
low pressure has developed just southeast of Wilmington. The
development and deepening of the low has been slower than
anticipated, and so far, winds have been slower to respond.
However, we still expect low pressure to deepen through the day
as it pulls away from the coast. With the slower deepening
noted, the stronger winds will be delayed, and it`s possible
that the strongest winds will be focused a little further east.
I still expect a period of gusty 30-40 mph winds along the
coast, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. However, given all
of the above, and with ensemble guidance trended lower with
higher winds, I have opted to adjust winds down some through the
remainder of the event.

Additionally, it appears that the slower-to-deepen low, plus
some convective effects, have led to lower rainfall amounts thus
far, especially inland of the coast. With good dynamics and
lift at play, and with a continued stream of moisture advecting
into the area, we`ll continue to see periods of moderate
rainfall rates, and possibly some minor flooding issues.
However, the threat of flash flooding appears to be decreasing.
For now, we`ll keep the Flood Watch going so as not to confuse
any messaging, as there will still be some rises on creeks and
rivers, as well as ponding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.
But, we may be able to cancel the Flood Watch early if recent
trends hold.

Instability continues to decrease, but there will be enough for
a risk of a few lightning strikes for another few hours. Given
the decreasing instability, the risk of severe weather looks to
remain very low through the remainder of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

Coastal low will quickly exit off to the north and east
Thursday night.

Coastal low will be located just offshore near Cape Hatteras
and will be pushing further north and east while strengthening
as the evening progresses. Any leftover rainfall associated with
this low will finally end from west to east through Thursday
night thus ending our heavy rainfall threat with just the
potential for up to an additional 0.1" inches of rain to fall
overnight Thursday, Winds will still remain elevated overall
across ENC with NW`rly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across our
inland zones and 30-45 mph across the coast and OBX overnight as
the gradient tightens between the deepening low and encroaching
high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...High pressure builds in from the south on
Friday and remains in place through the weekend resulting in
benign weather across ENC. Next potential frontal boundary then
impacts the area early to mid week next week.

Friday through Sunday... Upper level trough will be to the north and
east of the Carolinas to start the period and continue to push
further away while zonal flow sets up aloft on Fri and Sat
before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun. At the
surface low pressure system that had impacted the region on
Thurs will continue to move further away while a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the south and west and extends over the
Carolinas to start our weekend. This will bring a return to our
fair weather on Fri with mo clear skies and temps getting into
the mid to upper 60s inland and low 60s across the OBX.

Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave
riding along this flow to our north. At the surface associated
frontal boundary will be located to the north with a weak low riding
E`wards along the front while surface ridging continues to extend
N`wards into the Carolinas. While we expect to remain precip free on
Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our
northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy
SW`rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses
expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting
into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows
remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid
50s. As we step into Sunday upper ridging briefly builds
overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into
the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off
to the east while pesky surface front to our north dips slightly
S`wards nearing the CWA Sun evening with yet another weak
surface low riding E`wards along the boundary, this will allow
additional cloud cover to build further south across the area,
though we expect to generally remain precip free Sun as well.
Highs get into the low 80s inland and near 70 across the OBX.

Monday through midweek next week... Upper level trough quickly
pushes E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek. Associated
low and cold front also quickly march E`wards on Mon bringing our
next best threat for precip on Tue. Front quickly pushes offshore by
Wed with fair weather forecast to return from Wed onwards. Temps
generally remain above avg on Mon and Tue with near avg temps
forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Friday/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) IFR conditions last through late-afternoon or early this
evening

2) Gusty winds this afternoon and again on Friday

FORECAST DETAILS

Low pressure will continue to pull away from the coast this
afternoon, with widespread RA gradually pushing off the coast by
this evening. Gusty N/NW winds will develop this afternoon as
the low deepens, then gradually decrease this evening as the low
pulls further away. With good mixing on Friday, gusty winds
will redevelop during peak heating. Gusts today will top out in
the 25-35kt range, then top out in the 20-25kt range on Friday.

CIGs will remain at, or just above, IFR for most of the
afternoon, then gradually rise to MVFR by this evening. VFR
conditions are then expected by late this evening or tonight as
clouds move out. Despite lighter winds tonight, the risk of fog
appears low due to 5-15kt winds lasting through the night.


LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions
through much of the period as high pressure ridging builds in
from the south. We will see some gusty W to SW`rly winds each
afternoon on Fri and Sat with gusts above 20 kts possible each
day, as the pressure gradient takes a few days to relax behind
a departing low pressure system. Next potential threat for some
sub-VFR ceilings or vis look to be Mon night into Tues with the
approach of our next frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...

Low pressure is slowly deepening off the coast of NC at this
time, and appears to be centered SE of Wilmington. The low has
been slower to deepen than forecast, and winds have been slower
to increase. We still expect a period of gale-force winds as the
low eventually deepens, but it appears the magnitude of winds
may not be quite as high as originally forecast. With this
forecast update, I`ve lowered winds some, but the spirit of the
forecast still holds, so no changes were made to the ongoing
marine headlines. If the lower wind trend holds, some of the
headlines will be able to be cancelled earlier than forecast,
but we`ll hold off to see how the low evolves over the next few
hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Marine conditions will rapidly
deteriorate through today as a coastal low tracks NE`wards and
deepens Thu afternoon and evening. Winds will become N-NW`rly
behind the departing coastal low and cold front and increasing
rapidly with widespread 20-30 kt winds with 25-40 kt gusts found
across the inland sounds and rivers Thu afternoon and evening
with 25-35 kt winds with 40-45 kt gusts found across our coastal
waters. Dangerous marine conditions will persist through
Thursday night.


LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330AM Thursday... Low pressure system that had impacted
our waters on Thursday will quickly move further off to the
north and east on Friday, though hazardous marine conditions
will continue to persist into the weekend as the pressure
gradient remains tight over the area. Current forecast suggests
widespread 15-25 kt W`rly winds with gusts ranging from 25-25
kts across all waters Fri morning. This will keep a mix of SCA
and Gale headlines up across just about all of our waters save
some of the inland rivers where SCA headlines may have just
ended. Conditions will gradually ease through the morning on Fri
as the low pushes further away and ridging builds overhead
allowing the gradient to relax with W`rly winds easing down to
10-20 kts by Fri evening with gusts in excess of 25 kts.
Headlines then quickly drop from W to E Sat into Sun as winds
ease further with winds becoming SW`rly and decreasing down to
5-15 kts by Sun and generally remain around these speeds
through early next week. Seas start out around 6-9 ft on Fri
but then quickly lower with the lighter winds on Sat down to 4-7
ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft by Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...

Widespread 0.50"-1.50" of rain has been observed thus far across
Eastern NC, with radar estimating amounts as high as 2". The
heaviest rainfall has been focused across the southwestern half
of ENC, with lighter amounts up towards the Albemarle Sound and
NRN OBX vicinity. These amounts have, thus far, been lower than
forecast. The heaviest rain is beginning to shift offshore, with
periods of light to moderate rain continuing into the late
afternoon hours. With rainfall rates expected to decrease, it
appears the risk of flash flooding is decreasing. However, we`ll
plan to keep the Flood Watch going for now as rivers and creeks
will continue to respond, and there may be some lingering
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1030 AM Wednesday...

Winds have been slower to develop this morning, but are still
expected to increase by this afternoon as low pressure deepens
offshore. The one note is that the low has been slower to deepen
than originally anticipated, and it`s possible the magnitude of
winds will end up a bit lower. The overall spirit of the
forecast hasn`t changed, though, and for now we still anticipate
minor coastal flooding impacts for soundside locations of
Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves
and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke
north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a
bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the
Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will
rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas
forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect
through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low
pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas
lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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