National Weather Service Text Product Display

Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1
000
FNUS73 KMQT 161015
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH SCHAAWE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
615 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT OF THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE A NORTHERLY
WIND AT THE FIRE SITE TODAY WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
LAKE BREEZE AS WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AS WARM
AS THE UPPER 60S. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 20
MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL START THE DAY CLEAR...BUT BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
THERE MAY BE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH BY
                    LATE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 29 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (475) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (475)
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (818) BY LATE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4400 FT AGL
                    BY LATE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........24     33     33     31     28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............54     61     64     65     63
RH..............54     38     31     30     33
GENERAL WIND....N 8    N 10   N 10   N 10   N 9
GENERAL GUST....16     20     20     20     18
VINDX KT-FT/100.475    799    800    695    528
TRANSPORT WIND..N 24   N 24   N 22   N 18   N 17
MIX HGT (FT)....2300   3800   4200   4300   3500
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR
                    LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5...OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 4 TO
                    10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL IN THE
                    EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........21     33     45     55     55     52
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............56     45     36     34     33     32
RH..............42     65     89     92     96     100
GENERAL WIND....N 7    N 7    N 5    N 4    N 4    N 4
GENERAL GUST....14
VINDX KT-FT/100.296    94     13     18     13     4
TRANSPORT WIND..N 17   N 16   N 13   NE 8   NE 6   E 6
MIX HGT (FT)....2000   700    100    300    300    100
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 38 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 10 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (185).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........50     51     53     55     56     57
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............40     52     61     62     64     63
RH..............82     54     41     39     38     41
GENERAL WIND....NE 4   NE 4   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
GENERAL GUST....              8      10     10     10
VINDX KT-FT/100.15     117    185    150    111    93
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7    E 6    SE 6   SE 5   SE 3   SE 3
MIX HGT (FT)....300    2300   3700   3700   3700   3100
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      4

$$
FORECASTER...JLA
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL PETERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130516.SOUTH.01/MQT
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
