Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160922
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
422 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly above normal temperatures expected for the next week,
  or so, with the exception being slightly below normal on
  Monday. Normal highs are rising through the low to mid 50s.

- Main weather impact next few days will be fire weather due to
  combination of wind gusts 20-30 MPH (locally up to 35 MPH) and
  relative humidity 20-25%, and mild temperatures.

- Slight chances for moisture (15-30%) return as early as
  Wednesday night into Thursday, though higher chances (30-40%)
  hold off until the weekend when some snow could also mix in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Fairly high amplitude mid/upper flow is in place across North
America thanks to deep troughing moving SE out of Canada and
into the Great Lakes region and strong ridge of high pressure
over the Pacific NW. Beneath the ridge, a deep cut-off upper low
is spinning over the Desert SW. The resultant flow between these
features is strong out of the NW for the central and northern
Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes low can be
seen in surface obs depicted as a wind shift from SW to NW,
currently running from around Duluth to Scottsbluff.

This front will sweep through the forecast area this morning
and result in mild and dry downsloping flow. Deep mixing (to at
least 5K ft per consensus of short term model forecast
soundings) and pressure rises behind the front should lead to
breezy conditions with frequent gusts of 25-30 MPH. Relative
humidity values are forecast to dip into the low to mid 20s
thanks to dry low level flow and strong insolation. As a result,
vast majority of the forecast area (esp. along/N of the state
line) has a 60-80% chance for at least near-critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. There`s even a 15-25% chance
for critical conditions for areas along/N of I-80, with the
limiting factor being the humidity more than wind. Deemed the
chances/confidence not quite high enough for a formal Red Flag
Warning this afternoon, though if observed humidity trends
lower than currently forecast, one may very well be needed.
Not much for cold air behind immediately behind this front, so
temperatures will still be seasonably mild, mid 50s-mid 60s.

Colder air does eventually work into the region for Sunday and
Sunday night as dry, breezy northerly flow continues. High temps
have trended a couple degrees colder, now ranging from mid 40s
north to mid 50s south...which is actually still pretty close
to, or just slightly below, calendar day normals. The slightly
cooler temps could be just enough to preclude Red Flag
conditions as most humidity values again remain mostly in the
20s. It will still be windy, though, with frequent afternoon
gusts of 30-35 MPH...so not a great day for burning, regardless.
The dry air and decreasing winds Sun night will allow for chilly
overnight low temps in the teens to lower 20s.

Temperatures will rebound for the start of the new work week;
50s to near 60F for Mon and widespread 60s Tue and Wed.
Expect fire weather concerns to become increasingly more
marginal through the first half of the week as relatively close
proximity to surface high pressure on Mon leads to lighter
winds, and sustained S/SE return flow (albeit a bit strong Mon
night with gusts 25-35 MPH) Tue/Wed leads to gradually
increasing low level moisture. Outside of the windy conditions
Mon night-Tue AM, the first half of the week looks pretty darn
nice for mid to late March.

Moisture chances, albeit slight at only 15-30%, return Wed night
and continue into Thu. Latest EPS ensemble trends are for more
of a split in highest chances to the northern Plains as well as
S KS into the Ozarks. So doesn`t look like anything too
appreciable for our area at this time. Chances return and
actually increase late next week and into the following weekend,
but both ensemble upper level spaghetti charts as well as
cluster analysis shows widely variable solutions regarding
timing and placement of pertinent upper features. Therefore,
confidence for forecast details beyond general statements of
cooler and possibly more active are very low at the current
moment.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR through the period with little to no cloud cover. Winds will
veer from SWrly currently to Wrly around dawn, to NWrly mid to
late AM. Will become brzy by midday, as well, with gusts up to
around 25kt this aftn. Speeds will drop off to around 10kt after
sunset. Confidence: high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies


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