Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 021722
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
ROLLED EASTWARD AND REACHED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
UNIMPRESSED WITH LATEST RUNS OF MODELS WHICH ARE NOT HANDLING THE
PRE DAWN STORMS WELL AT ALL AND MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO HAD A
HANDLE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOT SHOWING IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF WINDING
DOWN...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DECREASE TO THE EAST AND THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH TIME.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING ACR0SS THE PLAINS
BREAKING DOWN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN THE ROCKIES AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SFC
DEEPENING IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INITIALLY WITH A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST THRU WESTERN NEB AND EASTERN COLORADO.
THEN LATER IN THE EVENING THE LOW REFOCUSES IN EASTERN CO. IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW TO THE
WEST...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AROUND H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
AROUND 30KTS AND HAVE RAMPED UP WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH WITH DPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S.
WARMER TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 80S ARE ALSO FORECAST AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO INITIATE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH STORMS REACHING OUR CWA
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHCS FOR STORMS FAVORS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.  STARTING OUT WITH THE BIG PICTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.

SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...OR FIRE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CANNOT DISCOUNT EITHER OF
THESE SO WILL NEED TO KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING DURING THE DAYTIME. THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO HOWEVER SEEMS TO FIT MORE WITH THE LATEST EC
SOLUTION WHICH HAS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THEN AN MCS WORKING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP. PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SPC SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. CONCERNS INCLUDE ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION/
CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD DAMPER INSTABILITY. ALSO HAVE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WHICH MAY LOWER THE CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH. FINAL CONCERN
IS WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP...JUST WHERE THE BEST SPEED CONVERGENCE OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. THE EC SHOWS IT MORE TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE LINE WHILE
THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE WEEK GOING FOR THE WED NIGHT TIME FRAME.

PRECIP MAY LINGER AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TO TIME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES COMING ACROSS. MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER
MCS COMING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GFS HAS BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUS A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF OUR CWA BUT OTHER MODELS NOT NECESSARILY
SHOWING THIS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW
CHANGES JUST A BIT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER US A LITTLE. BUT I DONT EXPECT THE RIDGE AND
MID LEVEL WARMING TO BUILD IN STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH. THUS WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH POPS IN THE EAST DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
KEEPING THE POSSIBLE MCS TRACK JUST A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME KIND OF
POPS GOING MOST OF THE TIME. DOUBT IT WILL RAIN EVERY DAYS...BUT
TOUGH TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN MID LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WHILE THE WEST COAST LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT CANNOT BUILD/AMPLIFY DUE TO THE NORTHERN JET STAYING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING MID LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT SOME
AND EVENTUALLY THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS TOWARD EVENING...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM IN FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB



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