Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...HAVE DEVOTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF ATTENTION SO
FAR ON THIS SHIFT TO ONGOING/IMMINENT FOG ISSUES. WILL OBVIOUSLY
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.

THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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