Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 241727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH



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