Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 061001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WHAT AN INCREDIBLY
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE TIME FRAME WE
ARE LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
COMBO OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISKS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ALSO MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SETUP CURRENTLY HAS
"OUTBREAK" WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...THERE ARE PROS AND CONS IN PLACE
THAT COULD RESULT IN EITHER SETUP EITHER PRODUCING LESS OR
POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TENDED TO FOCUS MORE ON
SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY RIGHTFULLY SO)...WANT TO ALSO MAKE IT CLEAR
THAT ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED
EITHER AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
WEST-EAST FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN CWA
COULD SEE A BRIEF/SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SUNDAY THEN POSSIBLY FEATURING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER "JUST
RIGHT". THAT BEING SAID...MESOSCALE DETAILS/UNCERTAINTY ARE A BIG
PLAYER AS ALWAYS...AND IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE OR DETRACT FROM SUNDAY`S THREAT.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AS
WELL FOR AT LEAST A LINGERING STRONG STORM THREAT (THIS DAY IS
CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT SREF SEVERE PROBS SUGGEST A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY).

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS:
FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S
AND MID 70S...AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS...AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE
THREAT IS FORESEEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12TH. IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY...AS
THERE COULD EASILY BE A 15-DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SHARP WEST-EAST
FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH FROM
WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SUBJECT TO FURTHER FINE TUNING...WILL AIM FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 70
FAR NORTH...MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND NEAR 85 FAR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-TERM FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY-HIGHER
POCKETS VERY LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES TO FLARE UP IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME.

NOW FINISHING UP WITH SOME ATTEMPTED DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: DESPITE AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CWA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ISN`T THE KIND OF DAY TO
CHANGE YOUR PLANS FOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-
EAST SURFACE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT
BAY...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY NEED WATCHED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST
NAM MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS (INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF) ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE CWA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT AT "LIKELY"
PERCENTAGES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES IN
ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODE REMAINS DISCRETE FOR A TIME. AM NOT
OVERLY-KEEN ON THE "PATCHY FOG" INCLUDED FOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IT WAS INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AND DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS AWAY...A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
MORNINGS LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET/LARGELY STORM-FREE AS THE AREA SITS IN
BETWEEN WAVES. BUT THEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NEXT LOBE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN WEST-EAST SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL RESIDE (COULD
BE MODULATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW)...BUT AS LONG AS THE AREA
DOES NOT REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST KS AREA. THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS VERY JUSTIFIED...AND ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GENERAL SEVERE
RISK INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DURING THIS TIME THE INITIAL/MAIN SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY DECENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE AND AT LEAST A STRONG STORM THREAT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: LOWER RAIN CHANCES (AND FORTUNATELY
LOWER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES) PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...AS
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE DAYS 4-7 INSISTED ON KEEPING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS GOING AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MARGINAL LLWS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO EASE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LLWS DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF AS IT WOULD ONLY BE AT THE VERY TAIL AND MORE LIKELY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI



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