Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251734 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY/TEMPS/WINDS. TEMPS WERE ALREADY
INFRINGING ON FCST HIGHS W OF HWY 183...IN FULL SUN. SO FCST HIGHS
WERE RAISED. E OF HWY 183 CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE FULL TEMP POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS SERVES AS THE 1ST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN.

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

THIS AFTERNOON: PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF ALONG AND E
OF HWY 183. TEMPS WARMEST W OF HWY 183 IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. STILL
BREEZY BUT WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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