Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Updated the forecast to expire the WSW for our Kansas counties as
the storm winds down.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Synopsis...Satellite water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing
to pull out and was located over northeast KS at 19Z. System
vertically stacked as surface low was over KMHK at that time. 1023
mb high pressure in NW Neb resulting in decent pressure gradient
across NE & KS and winds have picked up some the past few hours.
Temps continue to hover right around the freezing mark, give or take
2 degrees. If it were two degrees cooler near the surface, the
impact would have been much worse. As it is, still receiving reports
of random power outages, tree damage, slick roads, etc.

Overall, this scenario is playing out pretty much as expected.
The only exception might be the delay of the mid level colder air,
and thus we are not seeing the change over to snow yet. Some
western and SW sites have reported sleet. With the upper low
progressing northeast, am having doubts about receiving much in
the way of measurable snow. Have been monitoring cc images from
both KUEX and KLNX but so far am not seeing the transition to
snow, at least from the radar data.

As far as timing an end to the precipitation, still looks to be
between 6 pm and midnight, from west to east. Can see back edge on
KLNX radar, roughly from KANW to KLBF. Individual elements
swinging south while the entire cluster shifts east. Have decided
to leave headlines as is for now. Radar trends have begun to
decrease past 30 minutes and might be able to let them go early,
or downgrade to advisory in a while.

Much quieter day on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves over the
CWA and plenty of sunshine prevails.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Active pattern continues. By Tuesday evening, the low
pressure system currently affecting us should have filled a bit and
be located over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile another low
deepens in the desert SW and then it slowly meanders ENE and should
be located somewhere in KS by Thurs. It will take a while for the
moisture return and thus not expecting any precip with this low in
our area. That said, some of the model forecast soundings do show a
chance for light drizzle Thur morning so that will need to be
watched.

On the heels of that system, the next wave is slated to move into
the Rockies by Friday morning. For next weekend, the overall pattern
has ridging in the eastern conus and troughing in the west with a
deep upper low moving onto the Pacific NW. This should give us off
and on chances for precip Fri-Sun. As far as type, a quick look at
the thermal profile shows both rain and snow possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Conditions will gradually improve this evening as the winter
system pulls northeast tonight. May have been too pessimistic for
KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ041-048-049-
     062>064-074>077-083>087.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Heinlein



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