Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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903
FXUS63 KGID 131807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS WAS DISCUSSED HERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION WAS WHETHER (OR NOT) LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CAUSE
LEGITIMATE ISSUES/IMPACTS MAINLY WITHIN THE WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY. WELL...AT LEAST SO FAR...THE ANSWER IS
FORTUNATELY "NO". ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS IN FACT
MATERIALIZED VERY NEAR THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE INVASION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER CLOUD CEILINGS AND THUS
LESS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THAN EARLIER THOUGHT INTO THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA.

THAT BEING SAID...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE AREAL MENTION OF
LOW (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY...DID STILL LEAVE THIS MENTION INTACT FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-KEARNEY-WOLBACH LINE. ANYWHERE EAST OF THIS
LINE...CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO HIGH/THE
LOWEST LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EVEN A "SLIGHT CHANCE" MENTION.

OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCES...HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS WANING ON THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CEILINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MOVE EASTWARD MUCH OVERNIGHT
AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
KEEP IT IN ITS SOLUTIONS...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT AS
WELL. DID KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH SMALL CHANCES.

A DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
EAST/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY ALLOWING RELATIVE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WHICH DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AS A
FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO NOT
DROPPING MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. A COUPLE VERY MODEST PRECIP
POSSIBILITIES SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY. OVERALL FCST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

NO CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN IS FORESEEN THRU TUE...WITH AN E PAC
TROF/WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND A TROF IN THE E. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW
FLOW HERE. THE EC/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FCST SOME PROGRESSION TO
DEVELOP MID NEXT WEEK...WITH THE E PAC TROF MOVING ONSHORE. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE WRN RIDGE THRU ONTO THE PLAINS THU...WITH THE TROF
MOVING THRU FRI.

ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAWN SUN. THIS TROF WILL
RAPIDLY DEPART...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROF SUN
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO ARRIVE MON NIGHT. THEN
IT`S QUIET NW FLOW WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS UNTIL THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVERHEAD THU.

SURFACE: THE WARM FRONT FCST TO BE OVER NEB/KS AT DAYBREAK SUN WILL
CONT E. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL RACE SE AND CROSS THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY NOSES IN TUE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA AS A
WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT E OF THE
REGION WED WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMTH PROBABLE THU. CYCLOGENESIS WILL
ENSUE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THU NIGHT OR FRI.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: PROBABLY A NICE START WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS. ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN NIGHT: LFQ OF 120 KT UPR-LVL JET AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVE
THRU. NOT MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT.

RAISED LOW TEMPS TO JUST ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE RAIN. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE EC/GFS/GEM OUTPUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. THE 18Z NAM HAD SOME
BUT THE 00Z WAS DRY. THIS LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY SPRINKLES...BUT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN TO WET THE PAVEMENT IS FEW LOCATIONS.
THINK MEASURING .01" LOOKS SLIM.

YOU MAY NOTICE THE FCST READS LIGHT RAIN WITH LOW TEMPS FCST JUST
BELOW FRZG IN A FEW LOCATIONS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. THIS TEMP
DROP SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PRECIP THREAT IS OVER AND CLOUDS ARE
DECREASING.

MON: ANOTHER DECENT START...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. MILD TEMPS
AGAIN.

MON NIGHT: SOME SPRINKLES OR A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AS ANOTHER UPR-LVL
JET STREAK AND TROF SKIRT BY. THIS ONE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
POTENT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST N AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
AGAIN...THE CHANCE OF MEASURING .01" IS SLIM.

TUE-THU: DRY AND MILD. TUE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON TEMPS
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. THE 18Z/00Z GFS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS
WITHIN THE THERMAL TROF. AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS E...THE STRATUS
WILL AS WELL.

THU COULD BE INCREDIBLY WARM AND BELIEVE THE FCST IS NOT NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH YET. NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE AS LONG AS IT`S NOT SPOILED
BY CLOUDS. THE LAST 2 EC RUNS ARE 14C AND ABOVE AT 850 MB. 20C IS
CLOSE TO THE SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD
SEE WIDESPREAD 70S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 DOWN BY STOCKTON.

IF THU PLAYS OUT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WE COULD SEE CRITICAL OR
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
FUELS SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FROM THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON FEB 2ND.

FRI: BRZY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT MEANS THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BE N OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO ENTRAIN MUCH
MOISTURE. SO PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD (ESPECIALLY BEYOND THESE FIRST 6 HOURS) WILL FEATURE A
RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CEILING. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. SOME MORE DETAILS...

CEILING/PRECIPITATION: STARTING OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH SITES
(BUT ESPECIALLY KEAR) ARE STILL PRONE TO SEEING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CEILING. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ANY SUB-VFR CEILING SHOULD SCOUR OUT FROM SOUTH-TO-
NORTH. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILING COULD PASS THROUGH...BUT HAVE
KEPT THINGS LOW-END VFR FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT ESPECIALLY KGRI COULD CATCH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION.

VISIBILITY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT

WIND: AT THE SURFACE...DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 12KT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THESE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE STRONGER GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 20KT. VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FORMAL MENTION.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS OCCURRING WELL-BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO FINE-TUNE THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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