National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGID 141009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK
EAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE STORMS AND
TRACKS THEM ALL THE WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80/HWY 6 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ALL
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EITHER DECAYED OR BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CIRRUS LEFT OVER FROM THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THIN AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY HELPING TEMPERATURES SKY ROCKET. AN INCREASING
SOUTH WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL OF
OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT MAYBE OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO
HELP TO GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 IN OUR FAR NORTH AROUND ORD TO OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS GOOD FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME AN ELEVATED CAP
AND INITIATE ALONG A SFC FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. MLCAPE
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG MAKING
FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY...AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 4 PM WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME.
REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR HIGHWAY 30
FROM MERRICK COUNTY DOWN INTO GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD SOUTHEAST OF
THIS CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WIND IS A BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE INVERTED V
FORECAST SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE OBVIOUSLY
HIGH CAPE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS. THE LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA PRIMARY FOR THE KEARNEY
AND GRAND ISLAND AREAS AND POINTS NORTHEAST WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL
BE THE LOWEST AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WIND BY
EARLY EVENING...BUT AGAIN THIS IS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS TODAY BEING BIG HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 MAY ALSO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE MAIN FEATURES WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER DETAILS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AND EACH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE AND WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT IT IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ROUND WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS A BREAK ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. THE BREAK IS SHORT LIVED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST THE STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH A
LITTLE VARIATION UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF GRAND ISLAND CONTINUE TO DIE AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SFC FRONT STALLS
OUT RIGHT OVER KGRI. THE WIND WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVERHEAD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$