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000
FXUS63 KGID 131627
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1127 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

WENT AHEAD AN UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. 14Z RUN OF THE
HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY WELL IN A WEAK AREA
OF LIFT...TAKING IT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 19 OR 20Z. NO
OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CIRRUS AROUND THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO HE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND THE GFS AS WELL AS THE
4KM WRF ALL HAVE SOME HINT TO THE SPRINKLES. THE CONCERN IS THAT
BELOW THE CLOUDS WOULD BE DRY ENOUGH THAT NOTHING WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING
THE MORNING THEN INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE
ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD NOT HELP MUCH TO GET TEMPERATURES WARMED UP.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING CONVECTION ON THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING IT EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WOULD BE HOW EARLY TO BRING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 3KM ARW WRF...THE 4KM
WRF AND THE NAM ALL INDICATE IT WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING
BEFORE IT MOVED IN. HAVE STARTED SOME LOW POPS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE LATER BEFORE IT GETS
TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS IN PART TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME MORNING CONVECTION THAT
LINGERS OVER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL JUST GO WITH LOW POPS ON
THE MORNING CONVECTION THREAT AND EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
IS AROUND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HIGHLIGHTING THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY
STRONG CAP. BELIEVE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERCOME THE CAP RIGHT ALONG A SAGGING COOL FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE FRONT BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. THE FRONT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND IN
THE GENERAL PROXIMITY OF THE TRI CITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH LCL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF OVER
4000 TO 5000 J/KG. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30 TO 45 KTS RANGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...EVERYTHING NECESSARY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS IN
PLACE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V
SOUNDING...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TORNADIC THREAT IS MORE LIMITED DUE TO
EXPECTATION OF HIGHER LCL LEVEL AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER STEAMY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MOST
OF OUR CWA...WHICH WOULD BE 90S FOR NEBRASKA ZONES TO OVER 100
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ON FRIDAY AND LOCATED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A CAP ON SATURDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FAIRLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. THE KEY TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST WILL BE FRONTAL
POSITION AND WILL NEED TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP
AFTER THE FRIDAY CONVECTION KICKS IT AROUND SOME. EXPECTATION OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY FRONTAL LOCATION IS THE REASONING BEHIND THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S NEBRASKA TO
THE LOWER 90S KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS VERY WELL MAY END UP BEING DAY 3 OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE CAP APPEARS THE WEAKEST OF ALL THREE DAYS ON
SUNDAY AND THUS CONVECTION MAY INITIATE THE EARLIEST ON
SUNDAY...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THE STORMS INTO AN MCS THAT WILL DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE BEEN DRIVEN SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THE EVENTUAL RETURN
FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BE WEAK. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION DURING THE
RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST.

WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. WILL BE DEALING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SLIDE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE PUT SOME VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB