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000
FXUS63 KGID 120543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SET  UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH AXIS
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS KEPT THE CWA
DRY...AND CLOUD FREE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE
PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE ND/CANADA
BORDER...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HIGH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...IT HASNT
BEEN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS. GOOD
MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY HAS HELPED IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS AT TIMES IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...THOUGH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DROP IN SPEEDS.
HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH TEMPERATURES...WITH 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT DEWPOINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS /PRIMARILY THE SOUTH/
DID GET A TOUCH LOWER. DEWPOINTS DROPPED OFF A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT ONCE THEY DID...DIDNT FALL OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. THANKFULLY BECAUSE OF THAT...RH VALUES DID
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...BUT WERE ABLE TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...TO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN...FROST AND PRECIPITATION.

AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...HASNT BEEN ANY MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...THOUGH MANY OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS DONT
HAVE QUITE THE AMOUNT OF QPF AS PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS /INSTABILITY WAS WEAK ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER/ TO SLIDE FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...A RESULT OF A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...NOT EXPECTING WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT NEVER REALLY CLEARS THE REGION.  BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE ACCOMPANYING COOLER AND NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. DID NOT GO AS COLD AS MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT
DID LOWER LOWS SOME. WHAT WOULD THROW A WRENCH IN THE TEMP
FORECAST IS THE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THAT DISTURBANCE/PRECIP MOVES IN. WHILE LOWS WERE
DROPPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...IT WAS ESP IMPORTANT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD BE THE LAST TO SEE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...AND WILL HAVE THE LIGHTER WINDS/COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE THE LONGEST DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH. DECIDED TO
HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 34-36 RANGE...AND ESPECIALLY WITH
FOLKS LIKING HAVING DONE A LOT OF PLANTING OVER THE LAST FEW
MILDER DAYS. LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE CLOUDS ARE KEY...IF MORE
COME IN THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...IT MAY DROP OFF AS MUCH AS
FORECAST. BUT THE EVENING CREW WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TEMP TRENDS ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH THOSE DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECTING LINGERING PRECIP TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...AND MOVING OUT BY MIDDAY. A FEW MODELS
TRY TO REDEVELOP ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH MOST KEEPING THE CWA DRY...DID THE
SAME IN THE FORECAST. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...WITH THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY CALLING FOR MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MAINLY FOCUSED
ON  HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ON TUESDAY
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO QUEBEC...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
SPINS  ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...THE BEGINNING OF THE MID TERM REMAINS
FAIRLY QUIET. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO EVEN 90S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE INTERESTING...AS THE MAIN AXIS OF
THE  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HELP DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHWEST BREEZES
WILL HELP ADVECT WARM DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SOLUTION INDICATE A FAIRLY WARM DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY WITH
850 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 27 TO 28 CELSIUS. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS
BEEN THE HIGHEST OF THE MODELS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE TRI CITIES. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO TREND A BIT WARMER GIVEN 850
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE HITTING NAM SOLUTIONS AS OF YET. AS
FOR WIND SPEEDS...AGAIN THE NAM INDICATES STRONGER WINDS SPEEDS
SUSTAINED AT 19 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WIND
WILL BE JUST SHORT OF RFW CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY
BE AN ISSUE. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO AS LEAST WESTERN KANSAS ZONES BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE EVERYTHING.

BOTH THE GFS...NAM AND SREF SOLUTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE  FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 21Z. REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL WITH CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE CAP SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...HOWEVER...WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 8 TO 10 CELSIUS. EXPECTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS...OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT SHOULD THEY BREAK THE CAP.

AS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MEAN FLOW TENDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS
MORE ZONAL...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTING THROUGH
THE  PLAINS. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO
BECOME INGESTED BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW...SUGGESTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MOST PERIODS ON THE LONG TERM...WITH NO REAL
CLEAR STAND OUT AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
VALUES ARE ALSO RANGING THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR 4500 TO 5000
J/KG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THAT BEING SAID...700 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN QUITE CAPPED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE NICE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DAWN...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT BEING PLACED IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-048-
     049-064.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY