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000
FXUS63 KGID 190921
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
421 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS WE GRAPPLE WITH TSTM
POTENTIAL WITH MINIMAL FORCING...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

ALOFT: THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 24 HRS AGO WAS SHIFTING E ONTO THE
PLAINS AS A POTENT -2 STANDARD DEVIATION CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS
THRU TNGT AS THE LOW SWINGS INTO WRN MT BY DAYBREAK THU.

24 HRS AGO WE WERE WONDERING IF THE MODELED SHRTWV TROF FCST TO MOVE
THRU TODAY WAS LEGIT OR SOLELY AN ARTIFACT OF MODEL-GENERATED TSTMS.
WV DOES INDEED CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY/SHRTWV
TROF OVER CO. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEW LGWV TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

SFC: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE E
THRU TNGT. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. A PAC COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESSING E THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN ADDITION...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
TSTM ACTIVITY LINGER.

FCST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS...BUT VERY LOW FOR
CLOUDS/TSTM CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS.

EARLY THIS MRNG: THE REMNANTS OF PANHANDLE AND ERN CO TSTM ACTIVITY
HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E. AN IMPRESSIVE/EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EMANATED FROM THE TSTMS THAT MOVED THRU THE GLD AREA. THIS BOUNDARY
KICKED OFF A COUPLE PULSE-TYPE SHWRS HERE AND THERE AROUND MIDNGT.
PCPN WAS BEEN ON THE WANE AS IT APPROACHED OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES.

TODAY: EXPECT SKIES TURN M/SUNNY AFTER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNGT
TSTMS DISSIPATES/HEADS E. DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR PCPN POTENTIAL.
A SHWR OR TSTMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. MODELS INDICATE THE
WEAK SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE THRU 12Z-18Z. THEREAFTER WOULD EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT MAY ALSO PUT A LID ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

AT 05Z THERE APPEARED TO BE AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
TSTM COMPLEX OVER GLD...ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING ENE
AROUND 30 KTS. THE MCV IS MOVING ESE AROUND 22 KTS AND IT SHOULD
ENTER PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES AROUND 515 AM AND EXIT JEWELL/MITCHELL
COUNTIES BY 915 AM. SO THIS FEATURE WILL BE TOO FAR E TO PLAY A ROLE
IN ANY SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT HERE.

THE 25-35 KT LLJ WILL REMAIN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND THE BL WILL MIX INTO THIS. WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY
EVERYWHERE...AREAS W OF HWY 281 WILL MEASURE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED G40 FROM LXN TO BEAVER CITY.

TNGT: THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT
JUST NO SURE WHERE.

BOTTOM LINE...CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A TSTM TODAY OR TNGT BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY AND TNGT ARE BASED ON A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS GID FCST AND 2M TEMP GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

OVERVIEW: A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND
MID 90S. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAT WILL BE FELT FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH
DAY FOR MOST NEBRASKA ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR KANSAS ZONES.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND OF FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY MINOR DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH AND A
PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS MORE HIT AND MISS ISOLATED CONVECTION RATHER
THAN ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD OBVIOUS RAIN MAKERS.

THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER THAN
WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED IN THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME. THE HIGH RES
00Z ECMWF WAS UNAVAILABLE TO FIELD OFFICES AND THUS THIS FORECAST
WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON NAM...WRF...AND GFS MODELS. THE 06Z NAM..00Z
GFS...AND SOME WRF MEMBERS SHOWED AN MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST. WILL KEEP THURSDAY MORNING DRY FOR NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY
SEE SOME POPS BEING ADDED IN THE EAST IF CONFIDENCE IN A LONG
LASTING MCS INCREASES. WARMER AIR ALOFT AT 700MB THEN MOVES IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY STRENGTHENING THE CAP. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE 00Z GFS IS DRY...BUT THE 06Z NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES DESPITE 14 TO 15C
CAP AT 700MB. WE RARELY GET CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH THOSE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AT 700MB. THE NAM SEEMS WELL OVER
DONE WITH QPF AND THUS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY DUE TO CAP.
HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THIS AREA. BEST BET OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...JUST
NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL EVEN INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. THE
WARMUP WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S AROUND ORD
TO THE MID 90S AROUND PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN
TOASTY EVIDENCE OF A STRONG CAP. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. THERE MAY BE A WEAK VORT MAX OR TWO THAT TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THE ONLY POPS IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE CONVECTION SOMETIMES CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP ON THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND
THEN MAY SLIDE INTO OUR AREA. EVEN SO...THIS IS A VERY LOW END 20
PERCENT CHANCE. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO LOOK SUSPECT GIVEN THE
STRONG CAP WITH CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE
USED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE A HOT PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THAT IS MORE LIKE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS KANSAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SEND A SFC
FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...BUT WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND SFC
FRONT IN THE AREA. THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING IS THE REASON
FOR KEEPING THE POPS FAIRLY LOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE FLATTENED OUT...BUT
THE PRIMARY TRACK OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP THESE DAYS DRY FOR NOW...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THE CHANCE OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR A STRAY
HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN HOT IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

REST OF TNGT: VFR WITH 20K FT CIRRUS CIGS FROM DISSIPATING
UPSTREAM TSTMS. SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KTS.

WED: VFR WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN IFR TSTM. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. SSE WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 26 KTS.

WED NGT: VFR. TSTM CHANCES ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LLJ IS FCST
TO INTENSIFY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS
TO FORM. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LLWS BEGINNING AROUND 04Z. LLWS
IS CURRENTLY NOT IN THE TAF DUE TO IT BEING A MARGINAL THREAT.
WILL CONVEY TO LATER SHIFTS IN CASE CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

CIG CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSTMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP
WX CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB