Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OTHER THAN ONGOING-BUT-IMPROVING FLOODING CONCERNS IN LOCALIZED
PORTIONS OF THE CWA (SEE SEPARATE "HYDROLOGY" SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS)...OVERALL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL DURING
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH PESKY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
COULD PERSIST RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. OVERALL THOUGH...THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY "MAINLY DRY" DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...BUT WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF
21Z/4PM...FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT OUR CWA HAS BEEN SPARED OF
THE "SNEAKY" MINI-TORNADIC SUPERCELL EVENT CURRENTLY UNFOLDING
SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST OVER FAR EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...WHICH IS
FOCUSING IN FAIRLY CLASSIC FASHION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE
EAST OF A STRONG...ROUGHLY 998 MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA NEAR COLUMBUS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...COOLER AIR...PESKY BANDS OF GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN...AND RATHER STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
THE MAIN STORY LOCALLY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF AFTERNOON SUN IS
PROPELLING TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S...MOST OF THE CWA IS
CURRENTLY WELL DOWN INTO THE CHILLY LOW-MID 40S WITH WIND CHILLS
WELL DOWN IN THE 30S. THE EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL CWA (ESPECIALLY
DAWSON COUNTY) IS LIKELY COMING VERY CLOSE TO EVEN SEEING A FEW
WET SNOW FLAKES AS OBSERVED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL NEB SANDHILLS!

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY:

TONIGHT: AS THE ROUGHLY VERTICALLY-STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES DEPARTING TO THE EAST INTO IA...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-
NORTH...AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON...BUT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY OVER 20 MPH EVEN LATE
INTO THE NIGHT. FORTUNATELY BREEZES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MARGINAL FROST FORMATION IN THE WEST...AS LOW
TEMPS ARE AIMED FROM THE MID 30S FAR WEST TO LOW 40S FAR EAST.

THURSDAY: WE HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A "DRY" FORECAST FOR
AWHILE...BUT THIS IS A BIT IN QUESTION. DESPITE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL STRATUS/SATURATION TO PROMOTE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON DRY FOR
NOW...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A "CLOSE CALL" IN FAR WESTERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH SUSTAINED AS THEY TRANSITION FROM MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. IN ANTICIPATION OF PLENTY OF CLOUDS...NUDGED DOWN
HIGHS SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO DELVE INTO DETAILS ON THIS PERIOD TODAY...BUT
CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...WHICH COULD WORSEN EXISTING FLOODING OR POSSIBLY LEAD TO
NEW ISSUES. SEE SEPARATE "HYDROLOGY" SECTION BELOW FOR SOME
FURTHER COMMENTS.

FORTUNATELY...INSTABILITY VALUES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH AND THE AIRMASS
COOL ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE A MINIMAL
CONCERN...AND HAVE EVEN REMOVED A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BELOW NORMAL READINGS LOOK TO RULE ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH MOST PLACES ONLY REACHING THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND
SOME 40S. IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS ONTO ANYTHING...OUR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY COULD EASILY BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES TOO WARM. A WARMING
TREND TO HIGHS MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70S IS
FINALLY ANTICIPATED BY NEXT TUES-WED TIME FRAME. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...ALTHOUGH NO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE OFFICIALLY IN THE
FORECAST...IT COULD BE A "CLOSE CALL" ON A FEW NIGHTS ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES SO THIS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.

TAKING A VERY GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
THIS TIME FRAME IS DOMINATED BY ALREADY-HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND
ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF MODEL OUR PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE
A BIT OVERDONE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUES-WED:
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY...HAVE
INTRODUCED TUES NIGHT-WED AS A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH THE
WARMING TREND...AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR CEILINGS. WE COULD VARY BETWEEN
VFR...MVFR...AND EVEN IFR AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. VISIBILITY SEEMED
TO BE QUITE VARIABLE RECENTLY AT KGRI...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR EVENTUALLY. WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT SITUATION:
DESPITE PESKY LIGHT RAIN DOGGING MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY...COUNTY
OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE FLOODING
SITUATION WITHIN THE ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING AREAS SINCE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY EXTEND A PORTION OF
BUFFALO COUNTY BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON REPORTS...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF FLOOD WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LOOKING AHEAD:
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA IS STILL IN POSITION TO HANDLE AN INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN WITH MINIMAL ISSUES (WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF
THE CURRENT FLOOD-WARNED AREAS)...THERE IS SOME GROWING CONCERN
ABOUT THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL AND/OR RENEWED FLOODING. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL GET A
BRIEF CHANCE TO START DRYING OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
MOST OF THE CWA IS POISED TO RECEIVE ANOTHER 1-2" (AND LOCALLY
HIGHER) DURING THIS TIME FRAME. UNLIKE THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN DOES NOT
LOOK TO FALL "ALL AT ONCE"...BUT GIVEN INCREASINGLY-SATURATED
SOILS IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FURTHER ISSUES FOR SOME
PLACES. NOT SURE IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS A FORMAL FLOOD
WATCH...BUT THIS OPTION MAY BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE SHIFTS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH



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