Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SKIES ARE VARIABLE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT A
LARGER AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE PANHANDLE
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. N-CNTRL KS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

FCST HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. SO
CURRENT OBS WERE BLENDED WITH HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THRU
SUNRISE. THIS RESULT IN RAISING LOW TEMPS ABOUT 3F ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WIND ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY HAS DIED DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN VERY LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT.
BRISK S WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
14Z-15Z WITH AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO W. THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 32 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST CIRRUS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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