Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210810
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
310 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP


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