Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 010446
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RADAR HAS A FEW RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT IS LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN AT KLBF
THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES HITTING THE
GROUND. THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT EXPECT THEM
TO LINGER VERY LONG THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE A LOT OF RAIN AROUND...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MID DAY MONDAY. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE CLEARING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES AT THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S FOR
LOWS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAVERSING THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. WHILE THERE
REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION TO CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...CONTINUED TO TRIM THESE CHANCES AS
THE RESPONSIBLE DISTURBANCE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THAT SAID...WITH SOME SPOTTY PRECIP BEING DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE...DID
NOT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT...DESPITE IT CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...IT REMAINS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT LACKING BETTER SHEAR...MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM SPC...AND INCLUDED THIS WORDING IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE SAME THEME WILL CONTINUE...WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON FORCING EMERGING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WITH CONTINUED LOW SHEAR VALUES...SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL...BUT WILL WAIT TO REFINE
TIMING AND MENTION OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
THINGS BECOME A BIT CLEARER. OVERALL...WHILE NOT CONTINUOUSLY
WET...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS GENERALLY COMING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT READINGS TO
RUN FAIRLY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S...AND LOWS NEAR 60...ELEVATED A BIT ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. CONVECTION SO FAR HAS
REMAINED WELL SOUTH IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MODELS ARE HIT AND
MISS ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY AS THE LLVL JET
STRENGHTENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY



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