Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 111942
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SHORT TERM THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LIKELY BEING THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE FORECAST IS SPLIT NORTH/SOUTH TODAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTH...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT SOME SPOTS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT IS NOT IN
OUR AREA. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THE FRONT RANGE WILL BE
EARLY EVENING FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...NOT TOTALLY UNLIKE LAST NIGHT. CAN/T
SAY IT WON/T RAIN FOR SURE...BUT BELIEVE THE BEST SHOT IS CLEARLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CONFINED IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. FEELING IS IT MAY LOOK A LOT
MORE LIKE RAIN THAN IT WILL ACTUALLY RAIN.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD SATURDAY THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARD
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER BY EVENING. FIRST THOUGHT IS THE FRONT
WON/T GET THAT FAR...BUT IF CONVECTION IS AS WIDESPREAD TO OUR NORTH
AS IT MIGHT BE...THE FRONT WILL GET SOME EXTRA PUSH/REFORM ALONG THE
STORM OUTFLOW. AT ANY RATE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE HOT AGAIN
SATURDAY...WELL INTO THE 90S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IT MAY TAKE TIL NEARLY EVENING TO
FORM THE STORMS...BUT ONCE THEY DEVELOP IT COULD BE PRETTY ACTIVE
INTO THE EARLYEVENING. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
BUT STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES LOCALLY SPEAKING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

WE BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN CANADA HEADS
SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY FIRING UP MAINLY IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CONVECTION AS THE COLD
FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO 25 TO 35 KTS ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...AND
LOWER IN KANSAS. WE COULD GET SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALSO...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO OUR AREA...BUT
BY THE TIME THE ANY CONVECTION REACHES US SATURDAY NIGHT...SEVERE
CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND WILL BE IN THE REALM OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...FOCUSED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH INCREASING SHEAR...WE WILL STILL HAVE A SHOT
AT LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE SOUTH...BUT THIS IS NOT A SURE THING AS
TIMING OF PERTURBATIONS WILL BE TOUGH. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN DECREASES.

DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WE COULD HAVE
LINGERING CONVECTION INTO MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH.

WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COOLER AIR BROUGHT IN BY THE
UPPER TROUGH...SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL GET COOLER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WE WILL CERTAINLY WILL NOT GET THE BRUNT. WE SHOULD
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH GIVING US MAINLY A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH COULD
HELP KICK UP SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND AREA APPEAR TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN WEATHER ACTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TAF REFLECTS
VFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. DIDN/T EVEN INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION
AS I EXPECT THAT TO BE FURTHER NORTH/WEST. WINDS WILL BE HOLDING
FROM THE SOUTH BUT START TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGING/VARIABILITY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



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