Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.