Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 211953
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
253 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Biggest issue will be precip chances tonight.

Backdoor cold front helping to keep stratus locked in for much of
the day in our north/northeast and kept us cooler up there. The
HRRR seems to be doing a decent job with the cooler temperatures
up there for this afternoon and early evening.

As for the upcoming low-amplitude perturbation tonight, numerical
models have really backed off on this. Still have low POPs in our
west/north, with somewhat higher POPs in our far north, but the
main influence of this wave will focus primarily north of the CWA
once again. BUFKIT soundings continue to indicate the possibility
for sleet in our far north, so I stuck that in there late tonight
as a possibility.

For Wednesday, Upper level ridging will help ensure a dry day,
with seasonable highs in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Biggest issue will be determining chances and timing of potential
precipitation.

A succession of waves over the extended will keep chances of
precipitation for much of the forecast.

At the surface a lee low develops over Colorado as an inverted
trough/warm front extends northeast for Thursday. There is a
small worry of some hailers in our south during the early morning
as MUCAPEs of 500 to 1000 J/kg are not out of the question. Not a
lot of effective shear to work with, so not looking for widespread
severe weather by any means.

We probably will not see a whole lot from this during the day
Thursday as we will be on the stable side, but could stand a
better chance during the night. It will all depend on where the
instability corridor sets up, but it looks like it might wind up
being west of the CWA.

Thursday could be a stratus filled day if the NAM is right, and we
might wind up way cooler than the forecast 60s/70s.

Friday trends are for the surface low to be farther south, which
will essentially negate our shot at severe weather, and instead,
we could see a rain band set up north of the low somewhere on or
near us.

Saturday may turn out to be more damp as the upper wave becomes
more negatively tilted as it departs.

Another wave pulling into the Plains will help spawn surface
cyclogenesis is likely over the southern Plains by Monday. A
blended solution of ensembles and operational models was used in
this solution as there is not a lot of agreement with
placement/timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tough forecast for GRI as edge of stratus hangs tough. Most
short-term models move this off by 00Z Wed. Shower activity
tonight will mostly be west/north of terminals, could be sleet,
but chances low.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.