Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 301640
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1140 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

RH VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WIND IS ALREADY MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE RED FLAG WARNING A
LITTLE EARLIER. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
FURTHER WEST TO THE RED FLAG HEADLINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHOULD
BE DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUS FAR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL MEET THE RED FLAG WIND CRITERIA FOR THE REQUIRED
3HR PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB


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