Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Main issue is freezing drizzle this morning, plus snow accumulation
from a deformation band slipping east southeast through the CWA.

For the morning, the weather is a mess. Unfortunately we had some
mid-level dry air work in overnight so that we were no longer
saturated in the dendritic growth zone. This means that freezing
drizzle had free reign for much of the central CWA overnight. We
have measured up to 2 tenths of radial ice accretion at NWS Hastings,
and there are quite a few reports of slick roads in the central CWA.

I kept snow amounts largely the same as the previous forecast, maybe
a touch lower, but truthfully, it`s looking like most locations will
receive the lower end of any range given in the WSW. Once the band
of snow arrives from northwest to southeast this morning, this
should cut off the freezing drizzle (from northwest to southeast). I
tacked on an additional advisory to the previous one inherited, and
placed it down to the Nebraska/Kansas state line for the freezing
drizzle. The threat of freezing drizzle should be done by 9 am.
Although there is a slight risk of freezing drizzle for our KS
counties, the likelihood of big impacts is considerably less, along
with the fact that road temperatures are a few degrees above
freezing there, which should also make a big difference.

I also shortened the valid time of the original Winter Storm Warning
and Advisory to end at 6 pm, and to tell you the truth, areas west
of Highway 281 could probably be dropped by 3 pm, if perhaps not
earlier.

There is fairly widespread agreement with the earlier end to
significant snowfall, and with the wetter nature of the snow, I
limited mention of blowing snow to our northern half of the CWA, and
ended mention of it sooner, which is by this afternoon.

I did knock the wind down a few miles per hour, so that gusts are
about 35 kts instead of 40 kts, and should noticeably decrease as
the winter system pulls out.

Should be quieting down tonight, albeit a bit cool for this time of
year with lows near 10 into the teens across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Aloft: As today`s system lifts into the GtLakes...a broad trof will
remain over the Plns Sat with another shortwave trof moving thru
Sun. SW flow will develop Mon as the mean trof shifts to the Wrn
USA. This trof will progress over the Plns Tue-Wed...with NW flow
developing Thu as the trof conts into the Ern USA.

Surface: High pres will be over the Plns at 12Z/Sat with a weak
Clipper and cold front along the MT-ND border with Canada. This
front won`t make it here but should become stationary across the Nrn
USA. The high overhead Sat will depart to the E and will be replaced
by another weak high coming out of the W Sun. This high will
dissipate. Lee cyclogenesis will occur over CO Mon with a warm front
lifting N into KS. The CO low will head E along the Neb-KS border
Mon night into Tue. The Nrn USA cold front will be yanked S thru the
fcst area Tue as this low heads for the GtLakes. Wrn USA high pres
will build in Wed. A Clipper will dive SE from ND-MN-IA Thu...but it
looks like we will remain under the influence of high pres.

A few sensible wx highlights...

Precip: nothing big is in the offing. There could be a little spotty
light rain/snow Mon-Wed over parts of the fcst area...but there is a
lot of noise in the flow with low-amplitude shortwave trofs that are
not handled well by the models. So confidence is below average.

Mstr will be scarce with the low coming out of CO Tue.

Temps: Much closer to where they should be for late Feb/early Mar...
possibly favoring slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Visibility will be especially tricky as this will be highly
dependent on snowfall. Freezing drizzle has become all snow at
both terminals as a deformation band has moved in, so
precipitation type will not be an issue. Gradual improvement will
occur as the winter system pulls east of the area, and wind should
noticeably subside this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     NEZ074>077-082>087.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ048-
     049-060>064-072-073.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046-047.

KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Heinlein


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