Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290846
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
346 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LAST EVENING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT THIS INITIAL
ROUND WILL EXIT BY DAYBREAK WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE
AFTN/EVE. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE MAIN WAVE STILL TO THE WEST
FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WY/NORTHERN CO.

THE WESTERN WAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY/THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTH THRU OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 20Z AND CLEAR
OUR CWA BY 03Z. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE
3 TO 5MB AND A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE LATE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO FOCUS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED NEAR 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR NEAR 30KTS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE A STRONG STORM MAY OCCUR. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
WAVE CROSSES BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY N/S
AS DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. AFTN TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WITH SOME
MODELS SUGGESTING A QUICK WARMUP THRU MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH READINGS THEN STEADYING OR EVENING FALLING IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FROPA. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A COOL DAY OVERALL WITH LITTLE WARMUP
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING OFF BY LATE AFTN.
HAVE WENT WITH SOME MIDDLE GROUND FOR HIGHS WITH TEMPS THE WARMEST
IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND COOLEST IN THE NORTH WHERE
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FASTER.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT EARLY TONIGHT...DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
CHILLY LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN CLOUDS WILL BREAK BUT IF CLEARING ARRIVES
FASTER THEN LOWS RIGHT AROUND 40F WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NW
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TROF WILL DEPART THE REGION SAT LEAVING WNW FLOW THRU SUN
NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BE EVOLVING AND PROGRESSING
THRU THE WRN USA. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU HERE MON...DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NEXT TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WINDS BACK TO SW TUE-THU AS
THE RIDGE HEADS E WITH MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROFS
EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION.

SURFACE: COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS SAT AND THEN SHIFT E SUN. WE THEN HAVE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AT DAWN EXIT S AND E. SUNNY AND
COOL UNDER THE THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS 10F BELOW NORMAL.

SUN: THERMAL TROF SHIFTS E AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. NICE RECOVERY IN
TEMPS...BUT STILL 5F BELOW NORMAL.

SUN NIGHT: THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC/GEM/GFS ALL FCST A FEW TSTMS IN
A PULSE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY
RICH MOISTURE PLUME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...BUT I HAVE BEEN BURNED
BEFORE BY IGNORING MODEL QPF AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAK...THEY
ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN DRY.

MON: SOME OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY PROBABLY LINGERS INTO THE MORNING
HRS.

TUE-THU: DRY MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCT TSTMS EACH DAY. IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK FORCING.

EXCLUDING POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS FROM TSTM DEVELOPMENTS...TEMPS
SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ROLLED PASSED THE
TERMINALS AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST SOME HIT OR MISS
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATER
TODAY THEN CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN. CIGS LOOK TO VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR AND SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR BUT DID NOT GO THIS LOW YET. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY


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