987
FXUS63 KGID 020920
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
420 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out and breezy today. Northern and western areas could
  see some very patchy frost tonight.

- Next chance for severe weather is Friday evening into Friday
  night as a cold front moves through the area.

- Mostly dry weekend, with only low chance for showers/t-storms
  Sunday afternoon.

- Better chance for thunderstorms (some severe) arrives on
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Remaining showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by
sunrise, and any redevelopment should occur to our southeast
this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable today
(highs in the 60s to low 70s), but breezy northwest winds
behind the cold front will make it feel a bit cooler. Afternoon
wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH are expected.

The drier airmass will allow temperatures to fall quickly this
evening into tonight, but increasing high clouds early Friday
morning should prevent temperatures from falling below 40
degrees in most spots. That said, our typically cold spots
(Dawson, Valley, Greeley counties) could see temperatures dip
into the mid-upper 30s. Patchy frost is possible in these areas,
but there is not enough confidence in coverage/impacts to issue
an advisory.

Southerly winds return on Friday ahead of our next shortwave
and associated cold front. Temperatures should be able to climb
to the upper 60s and low 70s. Low chances for a few
thunderstorms arrive in the early evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. Deep layer shear would be favorable for
supercell development, but instability is more questionable.
Near-term models vary widely on how much moisture returns during
the daytime on Friday. The 03 RAP shows almost 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE in our southern zones by 6pm Friday, while the NAMnest
shows effectively zero.

Regardless of the pre-frontal development, models are pretty
consistently showing a line of convection along the cold front
that pushes through the area during the evening and overnight.
As such, SPC has maintained a "Marginal" risk for most of our
area, with the potential for severe wind gusts and hail.

The weekend looks mostly dry, although there is a low chance
(20-40%) that a few few showers and storms could sneak into
mainly southern portions of the area on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below
normal (highs in the 60s to near 70).

A more robust upper low then pushes into the region Sunday
night into Monday, bringing us another chance for thunderstorms.
Of course, convective details remain quite uncertain at this
range, but the pattern alone would be favorable for at least
some severe storms over at least the eastern halves of Nebraska
and Kansas.

The forecast becomes more uncertain for the middle of next week
onward as deterministic models show this upper system cutting
off and persisting over the northern Plains. Ensembles actually
favor below normal precipitation from the middle to end of next
week (May 7 to 11), but of course that doesn`t mean we will be
completely quiet and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push through central
Nebraska, but any severe winds/hail will remain south of
EAR/GRI. This activity will clear the terminals by around 9-10Z.
Ceilings are expected to dip to IFR tonight before improving
quickly on Thursday.

Northwest winds gust 35-30kts Thursday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels