Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM RISK THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WILL TRY TO BRING ENERGY AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN MID
CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND THUS INSTABILITY. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT INSTABILITY HELD IN CHECK A BIT
BY THE CLOUDS. MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE JUST THE SOUTEHAST OF
THE AREA. TO THE WEST.. INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT IS NOW SPAWNING A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
NORTHEAST.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT UNSETTLED IN JUST HOW THINGS
MIGHT PLAY OUT. ONE LIMITING FEATURE SEEMS TO BE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS QUITE WEAK. ANOTHER THING
HOLDING STORMS BACK IS ALL THE CLOUD COVER BUT A MORE
ROBUST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ISN/T THAT FAR AWAY.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE TWO AREA
TRY TO WORK EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY CAN OVERCOME THE WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SUNSHINE MAY RETURN MORE IN
EARNEST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE ENTIRE MID
AND LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL FOCUS ON WHAT DAYS/NIGHTS IF ANY MAY END UP BEING DRY...AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE PLAINS WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HINDER OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
EARLY ON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
BASED ON NAM SOLUTION EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...WITH ONLY
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN
BEFORE 0Z...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET INTO MORE DETAIL WITH
THIS.

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY IS DECENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6 KM IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS KANSAS.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A LARGE OUTBREAK
IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LIFT ALIVE
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOOKING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS A BIT OUT TO LUNCH WITH POCKETS OF NEARLY 40 TO 50 KTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER THESE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY REGARDING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE VERSUS 16 TO 18 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEEMINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEARBY
AND SURFACE FRONT TO PULL THROUGH THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WEATHER THE AREA WILL
ACTUALLY SEE. THOUGH WE SEE MOVEMENT ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME...THE TENDENCY OF LOTS
OF MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT A LOWER END IFR CEILING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND ONLY A VICINITY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LATER TONIGHT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH A LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ


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