Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 211012
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
512 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT IS HERE AND HOT WEATHER PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FM
THE DESERT SW...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE 70S WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE
FROM A FEW MORNINGS AGO WHEN READINGS WERE IN THE 50S.  SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN EASTERN WY AND A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS.

H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EAST/WEST ARE PROGGED THIS
AFTN AND WILL SPELL NOTHING BUT HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (95 TO
105F) AS ALL MODELS SHOW INDICATE MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
TO OVER THE CENTURY MARK.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT A HIGHER
DEWPOINT MAY HOLD A MAX TEMP DOWN SLIGHTLY...OR THERE IS SOME
INDICATION BY MODELS THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW MAY INCREASE AND HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT.
EVEN IF TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST IT
IS STILL PLENTY HOT AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY
IS WARRANTED WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN OR MORE SO INTO THE EVENING AN ISOLATED
TSTM JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO STRONG HEATING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH. IF
STORMS DEVELOP EXPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE WITH HOT MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
16C IN PLACE AT H7.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS SECTION WILL BE COMPLETED/UPDATED BY 5 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

INITIALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS IS POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BUT CHCS ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY


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