Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 150915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WE HAD A COOL FRONT SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS TURNED OUR WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND
WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AND A BAND OF ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS SLIPPING INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT LITTLE ELSE AND
THEREFORE...FELT THAT ISOLATED SPRINKLES WERE A BETTER FORECAST
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THAN ACTUAL POPS FOR RAIN OR THUNDER. THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS ONE CAN SEE BY MUCAPE VALUES OF A
LITTLE OVER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO
THIS INSTABILITY LAYER ALL NIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THE
BETTER FORCING HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MAKING THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE PULLED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL JUST
GO WITH SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND THOSE
THAT SEE RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ENOUGH TO MEASURE. MOST FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THE SPRINKLES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING...BUT THEY COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...LIKELY TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 1 PM. MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AFTER THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT WHEN WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THERE IS REALLY NOT GOING TO BE MUCH GOING ON TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO DAWN ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LONG TERM SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL CENTER AROUND THE EXPECTED
LOWERING OF CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WHILE THE CHANCE OF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
IS LIKELY BETTER THAN 50/50. THE CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT WINDS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITY UP ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED WELL
EAST OF OUR TAF SITES...AND ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT KGRI/KEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY
SMALL CHANCE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WESELY



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