Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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