Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261730
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MAIN STORY IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT TODAY. MAIN
CHANGE TO WAS ADD A BUFFER ROW OF COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
ROUGHLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
LATER TODAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW COMPLETELY CLOUDY...THANKS TO
POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVING SETTLED OVER THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS.
NORTH PLATTE RADAR IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THIS PAST HOUR WITH ITS
COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE AREA. GOOD NEWS. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION ON WHETHER TO MENTION SOME OF THE PRE-DAWN DRIZZLE.

MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN TRENDS WITH THIS EVENT...AND IN
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10" TO 0.25" OR SO.
WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY IN THE 15-1 RANGE...A 4" AMOUNT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL 1-2" OR 2-3" IS MOST LIKELY.
HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST THE FIRST REAL BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEAST. WITH INCREASING UPPER FORCING...
A MORE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. THE
EVENT IS PRETTY QUICK AND MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH
WINDS ABOUT 20 MPH TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL RESULT IN SOME
BLOWING SNOW BUT IT SHOULDN/T BE EXCESSIVE. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A
ROW OF COUNTIES TO ADVISORY WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ON AVERAGE
MAY FALL. THE CURRENT ADVISORY STRUCTURE LINES UP WELL WITH WFO/S
OMAHA AND NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES BUT DESPITE THE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20S TO NEAR 30. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY DURING THE
DAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. BY TUESDAY
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY WILL BE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH FOR TUESDAY WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR TO THE AREA
AND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 5 TO
15 DEGREES FOR THE AREA WHILE LOWS DIP TO -7 TO 3 DEGREES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NOT A HUGE WARM UP...BUT TEMPERATURES BY THE FIRST OF THE
YEAR WILL BE APPROACHING NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CONDITIONS ARE ONLY GOING TO DETERIORATE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN.
CURRENTLY SITTING AT MVFR CONDITIONS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND DECREASING CEILINGS.
EXPECTED IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNING TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER UNTIL
MID- MORNING SATURDAY WHEN WE START TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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