Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 120901
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWESTELRY FLOW CROSSES THE PLAINS. WITH THIS FRONT NOT
EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRYING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 21-00Z...AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH AN ERODING
CAP...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND A BIT OF
FORCING FROM THE FRONT NEAR PEAK HEATING...COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT ANY REMAINING
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

TEMPERATUREWISE...EXPECT A FAIR GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES START
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS MOSTLY HAVE THE
ENERGY WITH THESE WAVES TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTH AND START TO BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN A TSRA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE TIME BEING...COVERED THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH A CB/VCTS/WIND SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI


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