Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

For tonight, we will eventually get a low-level jet creeping in
from the west that could potentially give us a rogue shower,
especially north. Not enough instability for thunder the way it
looks.

There could be some leftover shower activity during the day on
Thursday, more likely in our north. But thunderstorm activity
could develop in the afternoon in the wake of a cold front.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Then Thursday night, we still expect the possibility of
thunderstorm activity developing over Colorado and moving into the
CWA, possibly forming into an MCS with the aid of a narrow
locally enhanced jet, that could swipe our southwest. There could
be enough elevated instability to give us a shot at some severe
weather with this.

A better chance of rain arrives by late Friday night as models
have consistently painted some decent qpf for our area within low-
amplitude flow, and could quite possibly carry over into Saturday
morning. Once again, there is enough instability/shear to have a
shot at some severe weather as convection to the west could once
again form into an MCS, although not the most favorable timing for
as much severe weather, this is our best shot at getting more
rain, and we could squeeze out a good half inch over much of our
area.

Sunday is looking dry, but we could get a small chance of some
showers/thunderstorms within northwest flow on Memorial Day.

We will generally be near or just below normal for the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Significant Wx: LLWS until 14Z then a period of gusty winds up to
25 kts.

Overnight: VFR with no clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. S-SSE winds
10-15 kts. LLWS. Confidence: High

Thu: VFR. Sct altocu around 15K ft will be joined by a few CU
around 5K ft in the afternoon. LLWS ends 13Z-14Z. A period of
gusty winds will occur 14Z-18Z as mixing transfers the diminishing
low- lvl jet to the sfc. S winds will increase to 15-25 kts then
diminishing to around 10 kts. Confidence: High

Thu Eve: VFR. Sct CU around 5K ft with sct altocu around 15K ft.
There is a very low probability for a brief TSRA. Confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAFs this soon. Lgt S winds will
become N. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Kelley



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