Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 232116
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. EVEN WITH SNOWFALL ENDING...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
COME IN WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND HALF AND INCH TO JUST OVER
AN INCH...BUT WITH THE VERY WET NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL AND FAIRLY
MILD TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER ON
THE GROUND FOR VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...ONCE THE SNOWFALL ENDS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

PATTERN: A NEW LONGWAVE TROF HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL
USA. MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TEMPORARY RETURN TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV TO END THE YEAR...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED E PAC RIDGE
POKING INTO AK. THAT ALWAYS SENDS ARCTIC AIR SURGING S. SO WHILE NO
WINTER STORMS ENVISIONED...ODDS CONT TO FAVOR TEMPS TURNING MUCH
COLDER TO END THE YEAR.

ALOFT: THE RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST WILL BE FORCED E AND
CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AS THE TROF CURRENTLY BETWEEN AK-HI MOVES
ONSHORE AND INTO THE WRN USA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT
OUT OF THAT TROF AND CROSS THE FCST AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH A +TILT TROF BEING LEFT BEHIND...EFFECTIVELY REEASTBLISHING THE
LONGWAVE TROF A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE WRN USA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DEPTH OF THE TROF WILL BE MODIFIED BY VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
TROFS ROTATING THRU IT.

SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF THE LAST 2 MODEL RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT/SPREAD IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROF THAT
EJECTS THRU HERE CHRISTMAS NIGHT...ALONG WITH WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W FRI. THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER BY 00Z/SAT
AND WAS NOT USED FOR FRI.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL TRACK E THRU SRN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF CHRISTMAS
DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ITS COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS KS TO BE LOCATED
NEAR OMA 12Z/FRI. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GEM/GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS /E OR NE IA/. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS GRADUALLY
DROPS S AND WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT. THE GFS/EC FCST A WEAK CLIPPER TO
DEVELOP AND RACE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN. THE 00Z/12Z GEM HAVE IT
BUT ARE 24 HRS FASTER...HAVING IT SAT. THIS IDEA WAS NOT
INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST. THIS CLIPPER WILL DELIVER A POTENT SHOT
OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AGREES WITH THE IDEA OF
THE EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. ONLY THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

CHRISTMAS EVE: SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUT WITH PATCHES OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-
HIGH CLOUDS PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS NOT EASY AS THE WARM
SECTOR AND CLOUDS/WINDS SUGGEST NOT AS COLD AS SOME AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IF CLOUDS/WINDS COMBINE JUST RIGHT FOR A COUPLE HRS...IT
COULD END UP LOCALLY COLDER IN SOME SPOTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY: WARM SECTOR. VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN
THE 40S. PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS WILL REACH 50.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LE-SIDE LOW PROGRESSING
UP THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SINCE THE CURRENT ERN USA
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP IT AWAY. A DEFORMATION BAND WILL OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THE COLD SECTOR...N AND W OF THE FCST AREA. THE SRN
FRINGE OF THIS BAND COULD AFFECT THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. IF
IT DOES...ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.

FRI: WINDY CLOUDY AND COLDER WITH TEMPS TURNING COLDER THAN NORMAL.
MULTIPLE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE TROF COULD HANG BACK AND HAVE
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. IT
WONT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANYTHING...WHERE IT DOES SNOW.

POPS ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY.

SAT: DRY BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUDS.
WITH THE TROF REMAINING OVERHEAD...WE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER. AM NOT REAL COMFORTABLE WITH HOW COLD MODELED TEMPS ARE WITH
THEIR APPARENT LACK OF CLOUDS. THIS DAY MAY END UP CLOUDIER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST.

SUN: DRY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS RECOVER BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL /30S/.

MON-TUE: AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INVADES BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHWRS. EXPECT A HARSH DROP IN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO TAPER OFF AT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY RELAX. AS A RESULT...KEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE SNOW ENDING...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ARE BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI


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