Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 182109
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
309 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Winds today will decrease late this afternoon and this evening from
northwest to southeast. This will occur ahead of a cold front that
will move through tonight...shifting winds back to the north.

The main concern for the overnight hours is freezing drizzle. As of
now, the HRRR/RAP are a good middle ground between the aggressive
NAM and the less aggressive GFS. One thing of note is that the
ESRL runs of the RAP and HRRR show significantly less
precipitation than the operational runs. Nevertheless, the most
favored areas for freezing drizzle will be north and east of a
line from Ravenna, to Hastings to Superior. Looking closer at HRRR
forecast soundings, we could even see some light sleet briefly mix
in as temperatures in the lowest 1000` continue to drop. Drizzle
is still expected to end 6-9AM as drier air advects in. I don`t
plan on making any changes to the winter weather advisory, but the
evening and mid shifts will need to keep a close eye on short-
term trends.

After a cold day on Monday, models indicate another round of wintry
mix developing Monday night on an area of lift ahead of a deep
trough approaching the area. Based on NAM/GFS, the model blend may
be bringing in too much precip too early. Our forecast area will be
caught in the middle between frontal precip to our southeast and the
better lift across the sandhills.

Unsurprisingly, the NAM shows a band of strong 700-500mb
frontogenesis developing across the sandhills, and develops a band
of heavier snow in that area. What is more interesting is that some
of the other mesoscale models (mainly the NCEP WRF-ARW and RGEM)
develop this band of snow much closer to, or even in, our
forecast area. As a result, the model consensus has increased the
snowfall for western parts of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Any lingering precipitation should wind down Tuesday morning, and
clearing skies may allow wind chills to dip into the -10 to
-15 degree range through mid-morning. Tuesday is expected to be
 the coldest day of the week with high temperatures struggling to
 reach much higher than the teens for most of the area. Tuesday
 night will likely also be the coldest night of the week with lows
 generally ranging from -5 to 5 degrees. Winds won`t be as strong,
 but we could still see widespread windchill values in the -10 to
 -20 degree range.

Forecast temperatures for the rest of the week have trended downward
slightly. Highs are only expected to reach the 20s/30s on
Wednesday/Thursday before another system moves through the late
Thursday through Friday. There is considerable uncertainty
regarding the details of the next system, but it does appear that
we will have multiple rounds of precipitation...possibly one late
Thursday into early Friday and another Friday night into Saturday.
This also appears to be a "warmer" system with high temperatures
above freezing each day, so we will likely have multiple
precipitation types to contend with as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Strong south-southwesterly winds will continue into the
afternoon, before gradually becoming light and variable as a front
approaches in the late afternoon and early evening. Winds then
will shift northerly, gusting to around 25 kts overnight.

Expect stratus with at least low-end MVFR ceilings to develop
behind this front. Some patchy freezing drizzle may also develop
in the early morning Monday. Better chances are east of the
terminals, but I went ahead and mentioned it at KGRI.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ063-
     064-076-077.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for NEZ041-048-049.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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