Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 180852
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY...A SFC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BEGINS BEHIND DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
THERE WILL BE LESS DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT THE LACK OF
WIND AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL NICE THIS AFTERNOON
EVEN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.
KANSAS SITES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S...REGARDLESS...ALL SITES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR WARM MOIST AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE OF A
BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOTEWORTHY ITEMS WILL AGAIN INCLUDE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND THE CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL BY MID NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RIDGING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN CONUS EXPERIENCES TROUGHING. THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SOMEWHAT BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST COAST AND DEVELOP A RATHER
AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE A BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY THIS TIME...WE FINALLY GET ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL BE OUR SHOT
AT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO I WENT WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF AROUND 500 TO 700 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. A
COUPLE FACTORS WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR CHANCES AT SOME THUNDER WOULD
BE THE AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND LACK OF WIND
SHEAR...WHICH COULD BASICALLY LEAD TO MAINLY STRATIFORM RAINFALL.
NEVERTHELESS...WENT WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW END CONFIDENCE. ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE VERY TROPICAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25
INCHES TO 1.35 INCHES. TAKING A LOOK AT DATA FROM 1948 TO
2013...THIS WOULD PUT THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FROM A TYPICAL MID OCTOBER DAY. THE QUESTION
WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE GET FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO GIVE ANY KIND OF AMOUNTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT ONE
COULD SUGGEST DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MID OCTOBER. THIS MAY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON HARVEST IF WE DID GET ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR COOLEST
AFTERNOON WILL BE THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL PROBABLY ONLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 67 TO 71 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. MOST AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS NICE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHEN HIGHS TYPICALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE TRI-CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE
WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY



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