000
FXUS63 KGID 141700
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm 80 degree weather will continue through Monday.

- Good chance for rain (70-90%) Monday night through Tuesday.
  Slight risk for severe storms mainly after 10 PM Monday night
  into early Tuesday morning.

- Strong southeast winds ahead of the storm system on Monday and
  northwest winds behind the system on Tuesday. Winds both days
  of 25-35 mph with gusts up to around 45 mph.

- There will be another decent chance for rain Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning (50-65%), then cooler highs in the 50s
  expected Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today...
We`ll see another warm day (80s) with upper level ridging aloft
despite the east northeasterly surface winds. Actually increased
wind speeds a bit today, but still keeping gusts below 25 mph
and thus no fire headlines are needed. See fire weather section
below for additional information.

Monday and Tuesday...
There will be a strong low pressure system moving through the
central plains and one thing is certain. It will be very windy.
We have high confidence in gusty southeasterly winds ahead of
this storm system and gusty northwesterly winds behind it. Much
of our area could see wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph on both sides
of this storm system.

Although at least some rainfall is likely, am concerned that
portions of our forecast area could get dry slotted by this
storm track and miss the more appreciable precipitation. Based
on the 00Z ECMWF ensembles, the best chance for over 0.50 inches
will be from around the Tri-Cities and points to the north and
east. Areas south and southwest of the Tri-Cities may struggle
more to get much rain out of this system. However, at this time
confidence in precipitation amounts is still rather low and the
precipitation forecast still needs to be fine tuned as we get
closer.

Severe weather will be possible mainly late Monday evening after
dark through Tuesday morning. Some models like the 06Z NAM
really dry slot us and don`t even hardly give us thunderstorms.
The overall environment is favorable for severe weather given
the shear and instability profiles if storms can form, but
models are mixed on if and where thunderstorms may develop, but
do favor our eastern areas and points further east from there.
However, this is not a very favorable time climatologically and
there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the severe weather
potential.

The system will begin to push east on Tuesday bringing the wrap
around rainfall and gusty northwest winds. The better chance for
severe weather will then also slide east of our area by Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday through Thursday...
Another upper trough will quickly swing south out of Canada
behind the departing storm system. This will bring an additional
chance for precipitation mainly Wednesday night, although there
will be less moisture to work with so amounts will likely be
0.25 inches or less. Although we are forecasting all rain at
this time, can not rule out a few wet snowflakes northwest of
the Tri-Cities around dawn on Thursday. The cooler air will work
in behind this mid-week trough so that highs will only be in
the 50s on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...
Overall cooler and drier weather will settle in. We have some
small rain chances in our west, but most areas will probably be
dry or see very little precipitation. Highs in the 50s will
continue with several frosty mornings likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are favored to continue through this TAF period.
Mostly clear skies are expected through tonight, with increasing
midlevel clouds through the day on Monday.

Easterly winds turn more southeasterly tonight, and increase on
Monday. Gusts up to 30kts are possible by midday Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

- TODAY:
It will be another day of very low afternoon RH values generally
bottoming out between 20-25 percent. However, the wind will be
light enough that we do not anticipate needing a Red Flag
Warning today. Went with the NBM for winds, which gave us some
of the stronger winds and it is a slight increase in the wind
forecast, but afternoon gusts still only top out between 20-25
mph keeping us in the near critical range.

- MONDAY:
We expect strong southeasterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
up to around 45 mph. However, the dewpoints and RH values will
climb in the moist sector ahead of this storm system. The main
question centers around where the dry line will set up. The NAM
is the furthest west with the dry line and we remained socked in
under low clouds with higher RH values. The NBM brings the dry
line further east and we could possibly see near critical to
critical fire weather conditions making it just far enough east
to impact our far western counties. Right now there is not
enough confidence in needing a fire headline over our forecast
area, but if we do need a watch/warning it would mainly be west
of Highway 183. A Fire Weather Watch has already been issued
just to the west of our forecast area.

- TUESDAY:
Strong winds (25-35 G 45 MPH) are expected again on Tuesday
behind the cold front, but will be out of the northwest. RH
values are expected to be much higher (40-60%) on Tuesday and at
least some rain is also likely. Therefore, fire weather
headlines are unlikely.

-- NOTE:
NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as
the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained
winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Following is a rundown of record and forecast high temperatures for
Sun/Mon, and also record and forecast low/minimum temperatures for
Mon/Tues at both Grand Island/Hastings airports (the two
stations for which we issue formal Record Event Reports/RERs).

Although all eight of the daily records listed below are currently
forecast to be "safe", it could be a somewhat close call for Sunday
highs and especially Tuesday lows.


- RECORD HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY-MONDAY:

GRAND ISLAND
                     Record High     Forecast
Sunday April 14th    89 (2003)         85
Monday April 15th    94 (2002)         85


HASTINGS
                     Record High     Forecast
Sunday April 14th    89 (2002-03,1940) 85
Monday April 15th    95 (2002)         83


- RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS MONDAY-TUESDAY

GRAND ISLAND
                   Record Warm Low   Forecast
Monday April 15th    61 (2002-03,1896) 54
Tuesday April 16th   54 (2006)         54 at 11:59 PM Tues night


HASTINGS
                   Record Warm Low   Forecast
Monday April 15th    62 (2002)         53
Tuesday April 16th   57 (2016)         53 at 11:59 PM Tues night

NOTE: in order for a new record warm low/minimum temperature to
become official it has to "survive" the entire 24-hour calendar day
(in other words, it is not always based solely on the early-AM low
temp).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely
CLIMATE...Wesely