Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
456 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In
South Central Nebraska this outlook includes the
Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their
tributaries. In North Central Kansas...the Solomon River and its
tributaries are included.


...The Potential For Spring Flooding Is Near Average to Above Average
Across A Majority Of The Area...


...Long Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 3rd Through May 20th...

The potential for spring flooding is near average to above average
across a majority of the area.

Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February through
March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based
on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude, streamflow conditions and
the long range forecast of future precipitation patterns.

The long range three month precipitation outlook indicates we are
slightly more likely to experience above normal precipitation this
spring across much of our forecast area and especially west/upstream
of our forecast area. There is currently no drought or even
abnormally dry conditions across our area. Rather to the contrary,
soil moisture levels are running above to much above normal across
our entire forecast area. On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 would be the
driest soil moisture on record and 10 would be the wettest soil
moisture on record, most of our HSA is somewhere between 7.5 and
9.0. The abnormally wet soil conditions are due in large part to the
widespread above normal winter precipitation, which has been more
than double our normal winter precipitation in many areas.
Current stream flow conditions vary widely from site to site
running from below normal to above normal across the area. The Platte
river is amoung the highest respecive to normal and has actually been
seeing much-above normal flows through most of the winter. The
branches of the Solomon river in north central Kansas have been
running at the lowest levels respective to normal with generally
below normal flows.

The only river within the Hastings HSA that originates deep in the
Rockies and is fed by spring snow melt is the Platte River. The
current snow water equivalent within the North and South Platte River
Basins of the Rocky Mountains is generally running very close to
average. The upstream reservoir levels along the Platte River are
above normal and generally around 130 to 140 percent of normal. Lake
McConaughy has experienced above normal inflows on 7 out of 9 El Nino
years similar to this year. There is room in these reservoirs to
handle near normal spring precipitation levels. However, if spring
rains end up too much above normal then additional water may
eventually need to be passed downstream.

After considering all of the above mentioned factors, the overall
forecast for a majority of our Hydrologic Service Area is to expect
near normal to above normal chances of spring flooding with at times
abnormally high river levels. This is especially true for the Platte
River given the fairly full reservoirs upstream and the increasing
chance of above normal spring precipitation as you travel upstream.
Even though the chance of spring flooding is above normal, it is by
no means a guarantee. The antecedent conditions are in place for an
increased flood risk this spring, but if heavier than normal rains
fail to materialize, then flooding, if any, would be minimal.


...Climatological Review (Winter 2015-16 Precipitation Trends)...

In the previous issuance of this ESF product back on Feb. 18, this
section contained a detailed narrative and table outlining
precipitation totals and departures from normal for the entire
previous year of 2015 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage
area (24 counties in Nebraska and 6 in Kansas). Please refer to this
previous issuance for the "full details" regarding 2015
precipitation, but here is a brief summary: 2015 precipitation
across the area as a whole would best be described as "near normal".
More specifically, the majority of locations observed annual totals
between 85-115 percent of the official 30-year normal. For most
places, 2015 was a fairly "good" year in the precipitation
department, not overly-dry or overly-wet for the year as a whole.

From this point forward, the focus will be on more recent
precipitation trends over the past few months, specifically what
transpired during "meteorological winter" of 2015-16, which just
ended on Feb. 29 (meteorological winter consists of the three full
calender months of Dec-Jan-Feb): As clearly evidenced in the data
presented in the table below (and supported by NWS AHPS
precipitation analysis), meteorological winter as a whole featured
solidly above-normal precipitation across the vast majority of the
local 30-county area. Despite the recent stretch of dry weather
since the major winter storm/blizzard of Feb. 1-2, the majority of
the local area observed 150-220 percent of the 30-year normal
precipitation amount during Dec-Feb. Not surprisingly, this has
resulted in above-normal soil moisture content for this time of
year. Most notably this winter, December featured well-above
normal precipitation across the majority of the 30-county area, much
of which actually fell in the form of rain, along with several
mainly "minor" snow events. Then, the "marquee" precipitation event
of the winter occurred just over one month ago in the form of a
major winter storm/blizzard on Feb. 1-2, which alone provided liquid
equivalent precipitation totals of generally 0.75-1.75" to the
majority of the local area. Keeping things in perspective though,
one must always keep in mind that no matter how much precipitation
falls during the winter, it usually only accounts for a small
percentage of total annual precipitation, the vast majority of which
falls during the spring and summer.

Winter drought trends: Thanks to solidly above-normal winter
precipitation, the majority of the Dec-Feb time frame featured no
drought categories whatsoever within the 30-county area, according
to weekly drought updates issued by the U.S.Drought Monitor. Early
on in the winter, several counties mainly south of a line from
Hebron NE-Phillipsburg KS were assigned Category D0 Abnormally Dry
(considered one category better than "true drought"), but even this
D0 area was eradicated by mid-December.

The table below features precipitation totals and departures from
normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter 2015-16
(Dec-Feb) and includes data for 30 locations scattered throughout
the NWS Hastings coverage area. Most of these stations are NWS
Cooperative Observers, along with a few primary airport sites. As
seen in the table, a few of the wettest locations during winter
2015-16 included: Superior (4.91"), Geneva (4.68") and Phillipsburg
(4.60"), all of which received well-over twice the 30-year normal.
Although still at least slightly wetter-than-normal, a few of
the "driest" stations during the winter (all of which were in
Nebraska) consisted of: Cambridge (1.63"), Ord airport (1.84") and
six miles south-southeast of Lexington (2.03").


  Location          Precip
North Central KS   Dec-Feb        Normal   Departure  % Normal
--------           --------       ------   ---------  --------
Alton 2SW            3.79          2.16      +1.63       175
Beloit               3.71          2.28      +1.43       163
Burr Oak             4.37          2.11      +2.26       207
Natoma               4.02          2.41      +1.61       167
Phillipsburg         4.60          1.88      +2.72       245
Plainville 4WNW      4.49          2.10      +2.39       214
Smith Center         3.37          1.73      +1.64       195


  Location          Precip
South Central NE   Dec-Feb        Normal   Depature   % Normal
--------           --------       ------   ---------  --------
Aurora 4N            3.42          2.22      +1.20       154
Belgrade             3.33          1.91      +1.42       174
Cambridge            1.63          1.59      +0.04       103
Clay Center          4.44          2.02      +2.42       220
Elwood 8S            2.23          1.69      +0.54       132
Franklin             4.54          1.89      +2.65       240
Geneva               4.68          1.92      +2.76       244
Grand Island Arpt    4.06          1.84      +2.22       221
Greeley              2.12          1.88      +0.24       113
Hastings Airport     4.10          1.51      +2.59       272
Hebron               3.96          2.44      +1.52       162
Holdrege             3.27          1.65      +1.62       198
Kearney Airport      2.43          1.61      +0.82       151
Lexington 6SSE       2.03          1.33      +0.70       153
Loup City            2.32          1.93      +0.39       120
Minden               3.37          1.48      +1.89       228
Ord Airport          1.84          1.40      +0.44       131
Osceola              3.68          2.25      +1.43       164
Ravenna              2.52          1.66      +0.86       152
Shelby 3NE           3.91          2.00      +1.91       196
St. Paul             3.91          1.60      +2.31       244
Superior             4.91          2.32      +2.59       212
York 3N              4.50          2.91      +1.59       155


...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next
Three Months...

It`s now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather
conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends
over the next several months:

Starting with the most immediate local weather expectations over the
next week (through March 10): According to the latest NWS Hastings
7-day forecast, there is a high likelihood that temperatures will
continue to average above-normal, and that the majority of the time
will remain precipitation-free. The only precipitation chances in
the current forecast, and fairly low ones at that, are mainly
confined to the Monday-Tuesday (March 7-8) time frame and would take
the form of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Temperature-wise,
daily high temperatures will be in the 50s/60s in most places on most
days, with a few 70s also likely especially within the southern half
of the local South Central Nebraska/North Central Kansas area.
Putting expected temperatures during the next week in perspective,
30-year normal highs during the first part of March average between
the mid-40s and lower-50s across the local region.

Looking out a bit farther, the latest 8-14 day outlook from the
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) valid March 10-16 favors a decent
chance that temperatures will continue averaging above-normal (50-60
percent chance), and a slightly lower likelihood that precipitation
will continue averaging below-normal (40-50 percent probability of
below normal amounts).

For March as a whole, the latest one-month outlook from CPC (updated
Feb. 29) has changed slightly from the earlier forecast released two
weeks ago, mainly regarding temperatures. Temperature-wise, this
latest rendition now modestly favors above normal readings for the
month as a whole (33-50 percent chance). However, this still means
there is roughly a one-in-three chance that temperatures will average
near-normal (within the middle one-third of climatology), and a
smaller 17-33 percent chance that March temperatures could actually
end up below normal. The March precipitation outlook remains very
similar to the previous issuance, as it slightly favors above normal
amounts (40-50 percent chance). However, keep in mind that this
still means there is a one-in-three chance that precipitation will
average near-normal, and a smaller 17-27 percent chance that
precipitation could end up averaging below normal. As a point of
reference, long-term 30-year normals (based on 1981-2010 data)
indicate that March high temperatures across South Central Nebraska
and North Central Kansas gradually climb from averages in the
mid-40s/near-50 early in the month to the upper 50s/low 60s by
month`s end. Average daily low temperatures in March gradually
increase from around 20 to around 30 degrees. Precipitation-wise,
normal March precipitation across the local area ranges from around
1.40" in the western-most counties (such as Dawson/Furnas), up to
around 2.10" in far eastern counties along and near Highway 81 (such
as York/Thayer).

Turning next to the meteorological spring months of March-April-May
as a whole, the overall climate pattern is still expected to be
defined by the currently-strong El Nino gradually weakening and
trending toward ENSO-neutral. The latest CPC three-month
seasonal outlook released on Feb. 18 shows no strong signals for
above or below normal trends across the local area, but if anything,
it slightly favors above-normal temperatures and slightly favors
above-normal precipitation. More specifically, for temperatures, most
of the local Nebraska area has a small tilt toward above normal
temperatures (33-40 percent chance), while north central Kansas is
assigned "equal chances" of observing above normal, near normal or
below normal values. As for precipitation, roughly the southwestern
two-thirds of the local NWS Hastings coverage area is slightly
favored (33-40 percent chance) of observing above normal
precipitation, while roughly the northeastern one-third (generally
north and east of the Grand Island area) is assigned equal chances of
measuring above, near or below normal values. "Equal chances" means
that long range forecast tools do not present enough of a signal to
support one outcome (above, below or near-normal) over another.
Despite the current lack of predictability regarding how the
upcoming spring as a whole might turn out, one can keep in mind that
30-year normal precipitation from March-May across the NWS Hastings
coverage area typically ranges from 7-10 inches, with the lowest
amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts near the
Highway 81 corridor.

Finally, the latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued by CPC on
Feb. 18 and valid through the end of May indicates a high-likelihood
that drought-free conditions will persist not only within the local
area of South Central Nebraska/North Central Kansas, but also within
the vast majority of the central United States.

(The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the
preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast
models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration
ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent
trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More
information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from
the CPC web site at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

Important Disclaimer: The hydrologic model that produces the flood
forecasts below does not incorporate the Climate Prediction Centers
long range precipitation outlooks, which are currently calling for
near to above normal precipitation this spring. These models do
include soil moisture levels, snow cover, and anticipated reservoir
releases. The chances of spring flooding does rise above what is
indicated below when a CPC outlook of above normal spring rainfall is
incorporated.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Blue River
Deweese             10.0   16.0   17.0 :   9   23   <5    5   <5   <5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade               11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Bow Creek
Stockton             9.0   12.0   13.6 :   7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Cozad                6.5    8.0   10.0 :  20   23    8    9   <5   <5
Overton              7.5   12.0   14.0 :  12   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearney              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  10   14    7    7    6   <5
Grand Island         6.5    7.0    7.5 :  15   19   12   16   10   10
:Wood River
Riverdale           11.0   15.0   20.0 :  13   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Gibbon              15.0   16.0   16.5 :  14   19   10   14    9   12
Alda                10.0   11.0   12.2 :  22   25   14   22   10   14
:South Loup River
Ravenna              5.0    8.0   10.0 :  34   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater          15.0   18.0   20.0 :  15   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Loup River
Saint Michael        6.5    9.0   12.0 :  31   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul           8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Loup River
Saint Paul           7.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Fullerton            9.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Loup River
Genoa               10.5   12.0   13.0 :   8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  22    9   14    6    6   <5
:Republican River
Riverton             9.0   10.5   13.5 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Guide Rock          11.0   14.0   16.0 :  11   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hardy               11.0   11.5   12.0 :   5    8   <5    5   <5   <5
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston            12.0   16.0   27.0 :  17   22   15   15   <5   <5
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne             14.0   20.0   27.0 :  20   32   13   17   <5   <5
:North Fork Solomon
Portis              15.0   20.0   25.0 :  20   24   10   14   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Beloit              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  34   37   12   10   <5   <5
:Republican River
Cambridge            9.0   10.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Orleans              9.0   11.0   13.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City         11.0   13.0   15.0 :   9    7    6    5   <5   <5
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stamford            19.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff            21.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese               2.3    2.9    4.1    6.7    8.2    9.8   12.4
:North Fork Solomon
Glade                 3.1    3.1    3.1    4.7    8.3   10.1   10.9
:Bow Creek
Stockton              3.8    3.8    3.8    5.3    6.7    8.7   10.9
:Platte River
Cozad                 3.1    3.1    3.5    4.9    6.0    7.8    8.7
Overton               4.2    4.2    4.2    4.7    5.7    8.4   10.7
Kearney               3.6    3.6    3.8    4.2    5.2    7.3    9.3
Grand Island          4.5    4.5    4.5    4.8    5.7    7.5    8.3
:Wood River
Riverdale             2.3    2.3    2.3    6.3    9.1   12.0   13.8
Gibbon                4.4    4.4    4.4    9.4   11.7   16.2   17.5
Alda                  4.8    4.8    4.8    7.6    9.6   12.2   13.0
:South Loup River
Ravenna               3.0    3.4    3.9    4.4    5.5    6.3    7.2
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater            5.6    5.6    7.6   10.7   13.3   16.1   17.1
:South Loup River
Saint Michael         3.0    3.4    3.9    5.2    6.7    8.1    8.7
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul            2.4    2.5    2.9    3.6    4.2    5.1    5.8
:North Loup River
Saint Paul            3.3    3.4    4.0    4.3    4.8    5.2    5.3
:Cedar River
Fullerton             3.2    3.7    4.7    5.4    6.3    7.0    7.6
:Loup River
Genoa                 4.7    4.7    6.6    8.1    9.1   10.4   11.0
:Beaver Creek
Genoa                 4.3    5.6    8.3   10.5   14.6   18.2   19.9
:Republican River
Riverton              1.5    1.6    2.2    3.5    4.6    6.4    7.9
Guide Rock            3.9    4.1    5.1    7.1    8.7   11.1   12.6
Hardy                 2.0    2.7    4.1    5.8    7.0    9.4   10.9
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston              4.1    4.1    4.9    6.4    8.9   19.0   20.0
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne               4.5    4.5    5.7    6.9   11.5   20.6   21.7
:North Fork Solomon
Portis                3.9    3.9    4.7    7.0   12.7   19.7   23.2
:Solomon River
Beloit                3.4    3.8    4.5   14.0   22.1   26.4   29.7
:Republican River
Cambridge             4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.4    6.3    6.8
Orleans               3.5    3.5    3.5    4.3    5.9    8.3    9.2
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City           3.0    3.0    3.0    4.2    7.8   10.7   13.3
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City           2.9    2.9    2.9    4.0    8.4   11.4   12.7
Stamford              6.8    6.8    6.9    8.1   11.0   13.9   16.5
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff              1.1    1.1    3.3    6.1    9.3   10.5   13.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese               2.2    2.1    2.0    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
:North Fork Solomon
Glade                 2.7    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Bow Creek
Stockton              3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.4    3.4    3.0
:Platte River
Cozad                 0.7    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
Overton               3.3    3.1    2.8    2.5    2.3    2.3    2.3
Kearney               3.0    2.6    2.0    1.1    0.8    0.8    0.8
Grand Island          4.2    3.8    3.3    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:Wood River
Riverdale             2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
Gibbon                4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
Alda                  4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3
:South Loup River
Ravenna               2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater            5.5    5.5    5.3    5.2    5.0    4.8    4.8
:South Loup River
Saint Michael         2.8    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul            2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9
:North Loup River
Saint Paul            3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9
:Cedar River
Fullerton             2.9    2.9    2.7    2.3    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Loup River
Genoa                 4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7
:Beaver Creek
Genoa                 4.1    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.6
:Republican River
Riverton              1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4
Guide Rock            3.3    2.8    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
Hardy                 1.6    1.6    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston              4.1    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne               4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:North Fork Solomon
Portis                3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
:Solomon River
Beloit                3.4    3.3    3.2    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8
:Republican River
Cambridge             2.0    1.7    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
Orleans               2.2    2.0    1.6    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.9
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City           2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Stamford              6.7    6.7    6.6    6.5    6.3    5.5    5.5
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff              1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/gid for more weather and water
information.


...Future Outlooks...

The next probabilistic hydrologic outlook will be issued on or
around April 27th.

&&

Visit our local NWS office website for current weather/hydrological
and climate information for South Central Nebraska and North Central
Kansas at:
www.weather.gov/hastings

Additional climate information for the region can be obtained at:
www.hprcc.unl.edu

Additional information on climatological outlooks can be found at:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at:
www.drought.gov
www.drought.unl.edu
www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Information on mountain snowpack can be found at:
www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/downloads/wsf/201602wsfwww.pdf

NWS AHPS precipitation analysis maps can be found at:
http://water.weather.gov

National snow analysis page can be found at:
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

For training on NWS probabilistic graphics:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

For training on NWS river forecast graphics:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=psIByj8EZY0

$$

Wesely/Pfannkuch



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