971
FXUS64 KMEG 041115
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
615 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

An unsettled pattern will remain in place across the Lower
Mississippi Valley into late next week. This will result in daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms with better coverage
expected beginning on Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorm
potential is expected to remain on the lower end this weekend but
increase into the middle of next week as conditions may become
more conducive for an organized severe weather threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor early this morning shows an MCS over portions
of the Upper Midwest and Central/Southern Plains. This activity
is occurring just ahead of a nearby cold front. Southwest
mid-level flow remains in place across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley with the Mid-South in between a couple of
shortwave troughs. A mild and very humid airmass remains in place
across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the
middle to upper 60s.

Mostly clear skies, nearly calm winds, and a nearly saturated
boundary layer has resulted in the development of dense fog and
low stratus across the area overnight. No changes were made to the
Dense Fog Advisory that remains in effect through 9 AM CDT.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the Mid-South mainly during peak heating this afternoon as
overall shear will remain weak at or below 20 kts. Rain chances
were lowered from the NBM guidance which contradicts latest
operational and ensemble guidance. There is a potential for a
strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorm predominantly west
of the Mississippi River. However, confidence remains on the low
end at this time.

A more pronounced shortwave in the southwest mid-level flow will
move from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be greater in
coverage, especially during the afternoon. 0-6 km shear increasing
to 30-35 kts combined with moderately steep 700-500 mb layer
lapse rates and surface-based CAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg may
support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in
multicell clusters.

Operational and ensemble long-term models continue to show an
active and unsettled pattern continuing across the region next
week. Better speed and directional shear combined with favorable
upper-level divergence and instability will support the potential
for organized severe thunderstorms next Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps the potential
for tornadoes will be possible. This will continue to be monitored
in subsequent model runs. Stay tuned...

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread low stratus will persist this morning, with ceilings
gradually improving through 18z. Dense fog is less widespread and
should dissipate more quickly. A few showers will affect areas of
West TN this morning with a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Confidence is
relatively low in whether or not this convection will develop, so
mention was limited to VCSH at MEM/TUP. Additional fog and low
stratus is possible late tonight.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...MJ