762
FXUS61 KRLX 090635
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and storms today, some becoming strong to
severe. A cold front will promote cooler conditions Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

A stationary boundary draped through parts of southeast Ohio
into north-central West Virginia yields the only sign of
lightning in our forecast area at the time of writing. This
low-topped convection poses a bit of a hydro concern early this
morning as it festers within light flow between 5,000-15,000ft
AGL, resulting in relatively slow storm motion to the north.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr within this band amidst tarnished
flash flood guidance due to previous activity may cause
localized flooding concerns during the predawn hours.

Otherwise, the bulk of stronger convection resides well south of
the forecast area early this morning, with even stratiform rain
now sailing away from our extreme southern zones. Flood Watch
for southwest Virginia and McDowell County in West Virginia
currently runs until later this morning, but if radar trends
hold, very little additional rainfall will sweep through and may
pose an election to end the Watch early.

Surface low pressure approaching from the west today will
promote another dose of showers and storms as it tracks along
the stationary boundary. A cold front will gradually clear out
the area late tonight, but until then hi-res guidance suggests
isolated activity sprouting during the late afternoon/early
evening followed by a segmented line of convection drifting
southward for the first part of the overnight hours. A few
storms could reach strong to severe thresholds, imposing the
threat for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado or two.
Forecast rainfall amounts are anticipated to be less impactful
compared to previous days, but a few isolated spots for flooding
concerns could sprout throughout the period given how saturated
the ground remains in response to unsettled weather this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Upper shortwave trough will be moving through the area Friday, with
showers, and perhaps an isolated storm. No severe is anticipated.
This will be followed by a brief break Friday night before another
shortwave drops southeast into the area for Saturday. Somewhat
cooler conditions can be expected for the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even
on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area.
Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s
across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry
conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure,
surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very
unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream
approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times
can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for
potential water issues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Relatively quiet conditions currently reside at our airfields
early this morning amid overnight convection thriving in the
Tennessee Valleys and down into the Carolinas. VFR ceilings hold
steady early this morning, but should see clouds lower into MVFR
after sunrise Thursday morning as showers pass through the area.
Could also see a round of afternoon thunderstorms filter through
ahead of a cold front, posing the addition of VCTS at a few
sites later today.

Ceilings lower further down late tonight into Friday morning as
the aforementioned cold front sinks to the south and east,
leaving behind a plethora of moisture in its wake. IFR cigs grow
more likely just before midnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR CIG restrictions early this
morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/09/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in fog and/or stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ033.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK