Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FGUS73 KGID 261442
ESFGID
NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019-
KSC147-KSC163-051800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
841 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Blue River
Deweese             10.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade               11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Bow Creek
Stockton             9.0   12.0   13.6 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Cozad                6.5    8.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Overton              8.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearney              6.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Grand Island         6.5    7.0    7.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wood River
Riverdale           11.0   15.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Gibbon              15.0   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Alda                10.0   11.0   12.2 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Loup River
Ravenna              5.0    8.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater          15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Loup River
Saint Michael        6.5    9.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul           8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Loup River
Saint Paul           7.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Fullerton            9.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Loup River
Genoa               10.5   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Riverton             9.0   10.5   13.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Guide Rock          11.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hardy               11.0   11.5   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston            12.0   16.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne             14.0   20.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Fork Solomon
Portis              15.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Beloit              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Cambridge            9.0   10.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Orleans              9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stamford            19.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff            21.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    3.8    4.9    6.1
:North Fork Solomon
Glade                 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    3.1    4.4
:Bow Creek
Stockton              3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.8    4.6
:Platte River
Cozad                 2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    3.0    3.4
Overton               3.6    3.6    3.6    3.7    3.8    3.9    4.1
Kearney               3.6    3.6    3.7    3.7    3.8    3.9    4.1
Grand Island          4.1    4.1    4.1    4.2    4.2    4.3    4.5
:Wood River
Riverdale             2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.3    2.4
Gibbon                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.3    4.5
Alda                  4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.8    5.1
:South Loup River
Ravenna               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.7    3.0    3.3    3.6
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater            5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    7.0    8.0    8.6
:South Loup River
Saint Michael         2.4    2.5    2.5    2.5    3.1    3.3    3.5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul            2.3    2.3    2.3    2.4    2.6    2.8    2.9
:North Loup River
Saint Paul            3.1    3.1    3.1    3.2    3.4    3.6    3.6
:Cedar River
Fullerton             3.1    3.1    3.1    3.5    3.9    4.2    4.4
:Loup River
Genoa                 5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.9
:Beaver Creek
Genoa                 3.5    3.5    3.5    4.0    4.9    6.6    9.0
:Republican River
Riverton              1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.8    1.9
Guide Rock            3.7    3.8    3.8    3.8    4.0    4.5    4.7
Hardy                 1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    2.9    3.4    4.0
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston              3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.8    4.6    4.9
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne               3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    4.3    5.7    6.7
:North Fork Solomon
Portis                3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    4.5    5.1
:Solomon River
Beloit                3.2    3.2    3.2    3.3    4.7    7.2    7.3
:Republican River
Cambridge             2.3    2.3    2.4    2.4    2.5    2.7    2.9
Orleans               1.8    1.8    1.8    1.9    2.0    2.3    2.7
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.1
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City           2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Stamford              6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.4    6.7
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff              0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    1.9    2.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese               2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade                 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Bow Creek
Stockton              3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
:Platte River
Cozad                 1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
Overton               2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Kearney               2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
Grand Island          3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
:Wood River
Riverdale             2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
Gibbon                4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
Alda                  4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:South Loup River
Ravenna               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater            5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3
:South Loup River
Saint Michael         2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul            2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
:North Loup River
Saint Paul            2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
:Cedar River
Fullerton             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Loup River
Genoa                 4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa                 3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
:Republican River
Riverton              1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Guide Rock            3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
Hardy                 1.9    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:South Fork Solomon River
Woodston              3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:South Fork Solomon
Osborne               3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:North Fork Solomon
Portis                3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:Solomon River
Beloit                3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
:Republican River
Cambridge             2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
Orleans               1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Beaver Creek
Beaver City           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Sappa Creek
Beaver City           2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Stamford              5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5
:Prairie Dog Creek
Woodruff              0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/gid for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued December 24th.

$$







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