Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 182017
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...
THUS A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PLAINS...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH MID WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190915-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190915-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190915-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-190915-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190915-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

KB
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