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000
FXUS65 KABQ 130927
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will be observed over
the Rockies and high plains this weekend with warmer than normal
temperatures, and breezy and dry conditions. By Monday, weather
conditions will deteriorate rapidly as a low pressure system and
cold front sweep across New Mexico. Cooler temperatures and windy
conditions will be felt while a few light rain and snow showers
struggle to develop over the northern areas of the state Monday
and Monday night. Drier conditions in portions of central New
Mexico and most eastern areas of the state will also be present on
Monday, leading to the potential for rapid fire spread with the
gusty winds. Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. A cold
front could lower temperatures by a few degrees late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

In the wake of a weak disturbance passing east northeastward across
the NM/CO border, high temperatures should fall a few to around 9
degrees across central and western NM today compared to Friday`s
readings, while warming a little farther east. Gusty winds will
return this afternoon, but speeds won`t be as strong as they were on
Friday. Peak gusts will probably reach up to 45 mph this afternoon
locally over the south central mountains, and up to 35 mph across
northeast areas. With humidities varying mostly between 8-12
percent, it will feel seasonably dry as high temperatures climb a
few to 14 degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

A weak ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over the forecast
area Saturday night and Sunday increasing high temperatures a few
degrees for Sunday with slightly lower humidities and slightly less
wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Upper lows over CA and NV will consolidate Sunday night into
Monday, crossing near or just north of the Four Corners area
before noon Monday. This track seems to be modeled a bit farther
north, which will reduce available moisture and the strongest
large scale ascent, and consequently lower QPF is advertised for
our northern zones. What shower activity that does develop in the
day could turn convective with a few lightning strikes possible
due to sufficient instability amid the colder temperatures in the
core of the low. Precipitation will be on the back burner though,
as winds will be the more pressing matter. The mid level jet still
looks to accompany the low on the south and southeastern
periphery of the feature, but does not appear quite as broad as
earlier model runs, likely due to the more northern track
alterations. The surface low still is impressive in northeastern
CO, but it too appears altered in location and orientation with a
slight reduction in the pressure gradient across NM. However, this
gradient is still quite large, spanning nearly 17 mb from western
to northeastern parts of the state and widespread Wind Advisories
for central to eastern NM are still likely with a High Wind Watch
potentially coming from subsequent shifts for south central high
terrain zones. Critical fire weather and rapid fire spread will
also be a dire concern Monday, and we will be trying to amplify
fire safety (no outdoor burning) messages to the public, so any
assistance that our media partners could provide would be greatly
appreciated. Breezy to windy conditions would persist Monday night
with not much relaxation to the gradient aloft or at the surface.

Into Tuesday, breezy to windy conditions will continue with more
of a northwesterly component added as the upper low ejects and
deepens over the midWest. Wind speeds would be considerably lower
than Monday`s, but still occasionally reaching 30-40 mph in
many zones and even higher in the notoriously windy central
highlands. The current forecast is dry for Tuesday, but we`ll
have to watch the possibility of a trailing shortwave trough that
could spawn some brief showers over north central to northeastern
zones.

The upstream perturbations are modeled differently and slower for
Wednesday with more of just a stiff west northwest flow
prevailing rather than a buckling that would bring down a trough
into CO. Now this next wave would hold off until Thursday, acting
as a satellite feature orbiting a much more massive low near or
just north of the Great Lakes. There will still be breezy to windy
conditions on Wednesday, but speeds are looking lower than
Tuesday. Into Thursday, there is uncertainty with the details of
the colder air spilling down the backside of the Great Lakes low
and whether or not it will infiltrate NM with much impact.
Consensus among blends and ensembles is that temperature impacts
would be minor, just starting to bring far northeastern zones
below normal Thursday before more of the eastern plains slip 3 to
7 degrees below on Friday. This front could provide some surface
convergence on its leading edge, as well as some upslope on the
east faces of the central mountain chain that could yield precip.
For now, POPs have been left at low chance, but improving
consensus could create a quick need for increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Gusty virga showers and light rain over the northern mountains are
forecast to exit northeastward over CO by 3 AM MDT. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds
will become gusty again in many places this afternoon, but won`t
be as strong as they were on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY CENTRAL AND
EAST...

As a weak ridge of high pressure crosses from the west winds will
weaken some today and again Sunday, while remaining gusty each day
due to a persistent lee trough and ample atmospheric mixing with
high temperatures a few to around 14 degrees above normal. Very low
humidities will continue areawide, and winds look strong enough for
locally critical fire weather conditions in the vicinity of central
and eastern San Miguel County each day.

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are then forecast along
and east of the I-25 corridor on Monday as a low pressure system
tracks eastward along the CO/NM border steering a strong speed max
in the polar jetstream over southern and eastern NM. Wind gusts
should vary from 40 to 55 mph across the fire weather forecast area
on Monday afternoon, with the strongest gusts in the east thanks to
a ~987 mb surface low in eastern CO. Haines Indices from 5-6 are
also forecast across most of the fire weather forecast area.
Humidities should vary from 7-12 percent along and east of I-25,
but the upper low will spread isolated to scattered rain and high
terrain snow showers over north central and western areas, where
humidities will vary around 15-25 percent. The tail end of the
speed max aloft will linger over the forecast area Monday night
and Tuesday morning as winds gradually shift out of the northwest
and remain fairly strong. The best chance for critical fire
weather conditions on Tuesday looks to be east of the central
mountain chain, but it will be more stable with wind speeds likely
weakening through the afternoon.

Locally critical fire weather conditions may return to parts of the
east Wednesday as a broad upper level trough passing eastward along
the US/CANADIAN border keeps the flow aloft brisk over NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  38  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  70  30  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  35  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  70  29  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  67  32  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  72  31  74  31 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  69  31  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  67  35  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  31  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  76  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  64  30  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  68  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  69  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  64  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  61  31  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  61  23  64  24 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  70  31  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  69  36  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  76  38  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  70  42  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  72  39  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  48  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  77  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  43  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  80  41  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  78  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  79  41  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  78  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  79  42  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  72  46  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  77  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  83  44  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  44  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  70  43  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  72  39  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  69  37  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  71  40  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  71  39  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  67  46  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  72  39  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  36  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  76  36  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  72  38  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  48  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  44  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  84  47  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  46  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  49  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  45  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44