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000
FXUS63 KABR 181521 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1021 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy Today and Friday, with gusts of 30 to 45mph during the
  daytime hours.

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday.

- The next chance of rain (40-50%) will be on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

No major updates needed this morning, forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cold advection today will result in steep low level lapse rates and
deep mixing. Profiles show some cloud cover developing at the top of
the mixed layer, up between 4500ft and 6kft, but too shallow (1-2kft
thick) to generate precipitation. Far northeast is a little
trickier, with a 4kft thick layer where convection could exits, with
around 50j/kg CAPE. Mixed winds top out in the 30kts area, should
be a little low for wind advisory but some of our windier spots
could tickle criteria. Friday is nearly a carbon copy, although
mixed winds are a little lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

By 00Z Saturday we`ll have the main 500mb low across Ontario with a
trough extending west across ND/MT, and the surface high near the
Saskatchewan/MT border with a ridge over western and central SD to
eastern NE. Under the influence of the cooler Canadian air, lows in
the 20s will persist through Sunday morning. Saturday will be our
last day cool day, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Expect
the surface high to shift across central SD Saturday afternoon and
into NE Saturday evening. A ridge will remain over eastern SD
through midday Sunday, with dry weather continuing even with the
500mb trough that was over ND sinking across SD Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Temperatures return to near average values Sunday through at least
Wednesday of next week. Our northerly winds will shift out of the
south during the day Sunday. Forecast models are in better
agreement with the next 500mb low over southern Alberta at 18Z
Sunday becoming an open wave over ND Monday night, and a surface low
over southwestern SD at 06Z Monday pushing across mainly south
central Monday morning and exiting at or slightly after 00Z Tuesday.
This will help bring our next 40-50% chance of rain to the area
Monday. Another area of high pressure will shift overhead Tuesday
afternoon and be over the Upper Great Lakes region by 18Z Wednesday.
Yet another surface trough to our west Wednesday afternoon through
Friday could bring about low (less than 30%) chances of rain. The
main focus for any wetting rain (greater than 0.10) will remain to
our south and west, closer to the surface low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings and visibility will continue through the next 24
hours, with winds gusting out of the west-northwest 25-35kts
during the daytime hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF